Guo Zhijun: Sino -US frictions affect world order?

Author: Guo Zhijun

Seminar about Sino -US relations will always attract a lot of attention. As the most important parallel forum on the World Peace Forum, the discussion on Sino -US relations and world order has attracted high attention from all walks of life.At the forum, several senior China Tong and the United States, which said, fully discussed the current Sino -US relations and its impact on world order.

General Chen Xiaoyong, the former deputy director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office and former deputy commander of the Air Force, said that since Trump's ruling, the United States has made great adjustments to China policy.Practice and containment.The main focus is in the field of economy, trade and technology, and many actions in other fields. This situation is very rare to China and the United States since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 40 years.As everyone knows, the United States has two lines of trade against China, one is to increase tariffs, and the other is to further strengthen technical control.I think technical control is part of this trade war, but it can also be seen separately. After the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, there are not many people talking about scientific and technological relations between China and the United States. In fact, it has always been very complicated.

The United States' strengthening of technological control against China has not suddenly happened. It has long -term restrictions on, blocking, and the continuation of the United States in the field of science and technology.If there is a difference, it is that the U.S. scientific and technological control in China now has a more competitive nature and a more than that to prevent being surpassed by China.It can be seen clearly from the 5G dispute, which is very typical.The United States suppresss China ’s Huawei company with the country's power, but has not yet come up with legal evidence, which also shows that the United States’ decoupling policies in China have more obvious political and strategic considerations compared to his tariffs.

In short, I think the Sino -US trade war is not only when the comparison of the strength of the two countries in China and the United States has changed.There is a major outbreak of contradictions and struggles.I think this struggle will be loose and long -term. Even if a agreement is reached, this contradiction has not resolved, and the American competitive strategy of the United States will not change.Chen Xiaogong said. Chen Xiaoyong said that the Sino -US trade war shows that the fragmentation of the world trade system is possible. The global industrial chain will experience a large adjustment, and China's economic development will definitely be affected. At the same timeTo interfere with the global industrial chain and value chain with power, it will also bring bad results to itself.I think that the current government's policy is decoupled from technology to science and technology, and it has adopted the so -called whole government's approach, and even restricted the exchanges of science and technology and educational exchanges and normal personnel.It is hard to say that the worst situation is that many people talk about it now. The world's technical system is divided, and even the Internet cannot operate each other. This is the worst possibility. Chen Xiaoyong also said that because Sino -US relations not only have not only have a significant impact on the future of China and the United States, but also have gradually stabilized Sino -US relations to a new institutional framework with both competition and cooperation.The direction that should be strives is that if China and the United States lose the possibility of cooperation, it will be a big disaster for the world.The world today is in a large change, and this change may have just begun. Where is the international system and world order?Will there be disruptive changes?This requires us to continue to pay attention.

Michael Swaine, a senior researcher at the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, said that for the US government, the world's geopolitical challenges are very obvious, which is a conflict between China, Russia, Iran and the West.This is the order of post -war liberalism to us, and the United States may be threatened as a leader in supporting democracy and respect for international law, and China, Russia and Iran may threaten such an international order.This is a very easy challenge.To cope with such challenges, the U.S. government has also proposed an easy understanding of the policy, that is, to achieve the revitalization of the United States, solve the dispute between trade in both sides, and use bilateral bilateral trade disputes that do not meet the rules of the WTO rules.Solution.

In addition, the threat of immigration, the US government will use these issues to intimidate his people, and the so -called Indo -Pacific policy has been introduced to curb China.I think that such a free and open Indo -Pacific strategy is indeed targeted at China. On the issue of China, first of all, this path of revisionism is actually the weakening of the Chinese regime.It is good.After all such remarks, they are actually separated from the actual understanding.But the Trump administration did not see the importance of this reality.

Shi Wen mentioned that the rise of China has indeed challenged some old power systems and some old rules, but many people think that the revitalization and world development of the world have no evidence.Controlling Asia, and China wants to reduce the military threat of the United States in Asia, China is now very dependent on the world economy that is still controlled by the West.There are still many people who preach the medium -income trap, but all these do not mean that China wants to overthrow the past world order. In the past 30 years, China has not been like this. China does not want to replace the United States as one pole.I don't think these goals can be achieved, even in the most ideal state.Now there are various practices that try to make Chinese demonization. If you can get rid of this approach, you may better solve this problem.

Shi Wen emphasized that there are more and more problems in dealing with Sino -US cooperation now, including climate change, world order, nuclear strategy, and regional hotspots.In addition, China and the United States should better cooperate in some regions, especially the Western Pacific region. In this region, the power structure of power is constantly changing, from the relationship between Japanese and American allies to a triangle relationship and a balanced relationship.If the two parties cannot realize a better mutual understanding, a better understanding of key issues including North Korea and the South China Sea may have some crises.For those who advocate Sino -US opponents, such attacks will become their ammunition. In this case, the cold war may occur, especially Sino -US relations.

The impact is destructive and affects all related countries, because in some areas, China and the United States are intertwined and intertwined.There is never the current situation during the Cold War.

Shi Wen said that the United States is now increasingly unsafe and not confident enough. The internal differences are getting greater and greater, the strength of the economy is weakened, and the development of this world is more dependent on the United States during the Cold War.Therefore, the US countermeasures will be stronger than the Cold War, but China and the United States cannot weaken each other. It may be possible during the Cold War, but it cannot be done now.The challenges facing all sides are to realize a bilateral relationship that can truly face reality, rather than an exaggerated concern and concern for the other party.Continuously worsen, but both sides should find a middle road, otherwise it is self -destructive facade. We hope to return to a more easily and more cooperative road. This will have a profound impact on the future of Sino -US relations.This makes this relationship more solid, this is the case in the long run.I think the narrow sandwich approach is incompatible in such a global world.Hegemonism should give positions to more balanced global development, and can better reflect the integrated world economy, especially in science and technology, services, and network services.We will not go back to the past mode of getting along, but we will fuse, more balanced and cooperative and mutually beneficial.

Wang Zhisi, Dean of the International Institute of International Strategy at Peking University, said that Dr. Michael Swaine recently led a joint signing of an open letter and posted it on the Washington Post to the Trump administration and Congress.China's attitude is actually diverse, not a person or a setThe delegation represents, at least it can be said that this joint letter represents a very realistic point of view, that is, the rise of China's existence and the rise of China's power is a fact that cannot be denied, so China and the United States should cooperate while competition, butIt is not the mainstream of Washington's policy on China now, and I don't know how to describe the mainstream of Washington's policy on China now. I think at least two different perspective represents Washington, one is the core, for exampleThe economic interests and other aspects of the interests are profit -seeking, but it does not want to defeat China, because the development of China's economy is beneficial to the United States and the world. At least some Americans, including the Trump administrationThere are also some people in the interior that they know this.However, there is also a third view that in addition to the views of realism and economic realism, some people really want to curb China and think that China's strong challenges to the United States for forming a fundamental challenge, so it may need to defeat China or China.The crushed, or comprehensive pressure, I think the third point of view is quite negative and incorrect. Wang Xisi also pointed out that when we discuss Sino -US relations, we often forget that there are still many problems in the world, and even very important issues are in front of the two countries.For example, the problem of non -diffusion in nuclear, as well as the chaos that are now in the Middle East, the problem of refugee issues in Europe and the problem of climate change that the Trump administration is not willing to talk about.In some issues that are solved, this is not good for global stability.There is a deep distrust between China and the United States, especially between the governments of the two countries. We always hope that the governments of the two countries can explain the intentions between each other through more conversations. This effort has been done for many years., But the effect is not great.

So I think that the meaning of what I have said in these strategic intentions is not very significant. I think the greater significance is how we face a series of global challenges. There are many issues between China and the United States.The benefits can be integrated with each other.No country is willing to choose a side team between China and the United States, so I hope that these countries can also propose some multilateral mechanism frameworks so that China and the United States can really sit down to discuss some of the world's long -term interests of the two countries.Governance issues.Wang Xisi emphasized.

David M.finkelstein, vice chairman of CIA company, said that it is clear that the competition in Sino -US relations is becoming more and more prominent, and it will last for a while, but this does not mean that Sino -US relations are black and white, but on the contraryIn terms of cooperation, it is still in line with the interests of both parties, but this means that the contradictions in the relationship between the two sides cannot be covered, especially the United States, and China also speaks its own concern very loudly.I want to quote a statement of Chairman Mao Zedong, that is, don't have any fantasies. We must control the differences and prepare for the struggle.

In such a new period, we should see new reality. We should make better diplomacy. The leaders of both sides should show a better level of leadership. I do not think that the two sides will enter the new Cold War.Scholars have said this argument for a while, and even the entire meeting to discuss this topic. I think the Cold War between the former Soviet Union is only a very special period of world history. I do not think that this will happen between the United States and China.Things, because our world is now a world of interconnected.

Feng Dewei also said that the development of US -China relations will affect the future world order, but some other relations will also affect world order.The history of US -China relations has been more than two hundred years, and it is very complicated. Sometimes we have very easily discredited and demonized each other very easily. We have cooperated and competition.We were allies during the war, but we also started war through agent war.We hope to return to a balanced and positive development channel. Although we are currently facing some problems and challenges, I still think that there is a deep friendship between the American and the Chinese people.