Society: Is it a blessing or a disaster for the long -term expansion of the US economy

Source: Industrial and Commercial Times Society Introduction

According to the US National Economic Research Agency (NBER), the United States will welcome the longest economic expansion period in July this year.Since the last decline of the last recession, it has been calculated from June 2009. It has been accumulated for 121 months.When US President Trump said that when he entered the White House, the US economy was on the verge of collapse.

But is this really the case?I'm afraid it may not be!

When analyzing the characteristics of the prosperity cycle, it will cut in from three aspects, including depth, breadth, and duration.First of all, the economic growth rate of American prosperity expansion has continued to slow down in the past 30 years. From the four prosperity expansion periods since 1982, the quarterly growth rate of US economic growth has weakened from 4.4 % to 3.2 %, and2.9 %, the cycle of this wave is only 2.3 %; in terms of breadth, the US housing market, employment, salary, consumption, consumption and investment market have expanded, and it has not changed in the past 10 years.Among the 33 prosperity cycles since the American prosperity cycle, the longest six times of prosperity expansion periods were all after World War II.If the two prosperous cycles of the post -World War II reconstruction period and the Vietnam War period, the length of the length in history is fourth and second (120 months from April 1991 to March 2001, the old Bush and the Collinton government period), sixth, and firstThe long -term expansion period, after 1980, seems to show that the expansion of the prosperity expansion has been a new normal for decades.Therefore, it is an exaggeration to say that the United States has ushered in the longest economic expansion period in history, and the reason for the decline in the economic growth rate in the recent four expansion period is a new topic.

So, how to interpret the expansion of the US economic expansion?Based on the viewpoints of various research units and scholars, it can be summarized into four observations: First of all, the most understandable interpretation factor is scientific and technological progress.The information revolution allows the circulation and low cost of information, and the advent of the end of the Internet without the Internet makes the B2B and C2C easier and change the past production model.In order to be fast and effective, the supply of crude oil is no longer controlled by the National Organization (OPEC). The anti -wind factor of the two oil crisis is no longer visible, and it is also a possible cause.

Third, globalization is also an important reason for the growth period of prosperity.Although some studies have pointed out that globalization has made the routines of the prosperity of countries in the world tending to synchronize, and even increased the fluctuation of some countries, but for the United States, which is mainly based on the consumption or service industry, globalization will help ease the easeThe prosperity fluctuates.Because of the outsourcing and metastasis, most of the upstream manufacturing departments in the prosperity cycle are not in the United States. Naturally, the United States can naturally not feel the slight decline in the prosperity. Even if the economic growth rate has slowed slightly, it can still be ableMaintain the expansion pattern.

At the same time, although globalization has led producers to rising production factors and pushing raw materials, it has also driven the improvement of production efficiency and global division of labor.Especially after emerging markets such as China have joined the ranks of industrial production, they not only suppress the pressure on prices, but also drive the growth of substantial income, which will help extend the expansion of the prosperity.This is why the United States has continued to grow in recent years, but the phenomenon of rising prices has stalled.The three expansion periods before the cycle of this wave, the average annual growth rate of the US price was 3.1 %, but the average in the past 10 years was only 1.7 %, which is an example.

Fourth, compared to the panic (43 months long) and disorder of the Great Depression in the 1930s, the Fed will sacrifice non -traditional super loose monetary policy after the financial tsunami, and release a lot of liquidity.The economic recession has reduced the period of 18 months (January 2008 to June 2009), which also made funds obtaining easy, and the economy is more likely to fall down due to the crushing of asset bubbles.Expansion period.

The problem is that like a forest fire is part of the nature ecosystem, the downturn of prosperity is a natural phenomenon under capitalist operation, and it is also a necessary process of long -term economic development.Moderate forest fires clearer the existing rigid pattern, and the decline of the prosperity also provides opportunities for people to remove disadvantages and innovation.The long -term economic growth of the economy has weakened, let alone the loosening of currency and indirectly encouraging the people to engage in too inefficient venture capital, which is constantly blowing the global debt bubble.Taking the United States as an example, non -financial corporate debt accounted for GDP ratio 35 % in 1985 to 46 % of its historical high in 2018.

In fact, policy makers of various countries should not consider the decline of prosperity as a threat in the process of economic growth. Normal prosperity cycle can ensure that minor illnesses do not deteriorate into severe illnesses, which means that the economy declines appropriately instead of completely avoiding recession.Political practice.But it is worrying that US President Trump (Trump) has repeatedly shouted and raised interest rates to save the economy.The normal operation of the economy deliberately will only obtain the consequences of the gap between the rich and the poor.

In other words, in the long -term expansion of the economy, the current glory is just a continued order under policy pushing, and it is by no means that Trump is known.Coupled with the Federal References that have been caught in the difficulty of riding tigers since the beginning of the year, it is almost abducted by market emotions, and it is difficult to fully exert its due rationality.The current economic expansion period in the United States is not necessarily a good thing.