Wu Liying
At the Twenty Group (G20) summit last weekend, US President Trump and China reached a temporary consensus on a one -year trade war between the two countries.The United States stated that it will no longer impose new tariffs on Chinese export products and will allow American companies to continue to provide products to Chinese technology giants Huawei; China promises to restore the purchase of agricultural products and food from the United States, and the two parties will restart trade negotiations.
An official of the Trump administration revealed on Wednesday that senior representatives of the United States and China are arranging to resume negotiation next week.
Although China and the United States have eliminated a urgent threat facing the global economy, the results of the Sino -US trade negotiations in the future are still full of uncertainty, because Trump's position is often uncertain, and the toughness of the United States Republican Senator’s toughnessThe position and China insist that the United States to cancel all tariffs may also make it difficult for both parties to reach a substantial agreement easily.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said on Thursday: If the two parties can reach an agreement, the tariffs imposed must be canceled; the Chinese attitude towards this is clear and consistent.
According to the comments from Tao Ran's notes created by the Economic Daily with pseudonym, it is the top priority to cancel all tariffs. If the United States does not do this, the negotiations may be repeated again.
However, some U.S. officials insist that some tariffs must be retained even after reaching an agreement to ensure that the agreement is executed.
U.S. Unfinstated Huawei
Another obstacle is that Trump only expressed relaxation, not completely canceling sanctions against Huawei.Huawei is still used on the entity list of rogue regimes and its related companies in the US Department of Commerce.The US Congress Members are still asking for a strong stance on Huawei.Director of the White House National Economic Commission, Kudlo, said on Sunday that Trump did not amnesty for the world's second largest smartphone manufacturer and telecommunications equipment giants.
Experts from the Global Economic and Marketing Department of the Dahua Bank of Singapore believe that the longest period of time for the Sino -U.S. Trade and trade will be the longest time in November this year, that is, when the two parties have failed to achieve substantial progress, they lost their patience.
In any case, the United States has suspended the decision to impose a 25%tariff of US $ 300 billion (N $ 407 billion) in China. For Chinese export companies and the Asian manufacturing industry as part of China's supply chain, it is still good news, at least at least, at least at least, at least, at leastThe risk of further decline in the global economy and world trade growth momentum has been temporarily lifted.
However, the United States has not been lifted on tariffs on US $ 250 billion of Chinese goods. Therefore, this part of the impact on the Chinese economy will continue.
In fact, the latest data show that the negative impact of tariffs on the United States on China's exports has exacerbated in June.The total value of China's exports fell 13.5%year -on -year.In addition, in order to avoid improving tariffs, some American buyers have also shifted their purchasing orders to other manufacturing centers outside China.
Under the pressure of decreased new orders, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Sunday, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) remained at 49.4 in June, lower than Bloomberg's 49.5 forecast for economists.As for the PMI of the China Manufacturing Industry in June 1 on July 1, it was recorded 49.4, which was less than 0.8 points in May. The first time in four months, it fell below the glory division line, showing that the prosperity of the Chinese manufacturing industry was obvious.decline.
Can't stand on the watermelon skin
Therefore, some economic analysts still believe that even if the situation of trade tensions eases, if China wants to ensure economic growth in the second half of this year, more loose measures need to be introduced.This means that in addition to the People's Bank of China (central bank) during the year, it also needs to reduce the bank's deposit reserve ratio of 25 basis points, and it must also match other stable growth measures, including stimulating domestic demand and increasing infrastructure investment.
At the 2019 summer of 2019, the 2019 Davos Forum held in Dalian, China, Li Keqiang, Prime Minister of the State Council of China, said that the world economy has a trend of slowing down, which has caused new pressure on China.This requires us to take positive response measures, rather than lsquo; where the watermelon leather is said in the watermelon leather, where is the rsquo;
Li Keqiang said that China's economic external instability has increased, and it is difficult to maintain the stable economic operation. However, it has taken a series of measures to respond to maintain a long -term trend and fundamentals.
As for what kind of measures China will take to maintain economic growth, he said that at the beginning of this year, China has formulated measures to respond to complex situations, such as tax reduction, which is a larger legal tax reduction for several years.This year to reduce nearly 2 trillion yuan (S $ 390 billion), it will reduce the burden on enterprises, and to resolutely fulfill their promises in the second half of the year.
In addition, Li Keqiang also promised that China will unswervingly promote opening up to the outside world, deepen the opening of the manufacturing industry, fulfill the measures to relax foreign stocks in the automotive field, and encourage foreign investment to participate in the development of the manufacturing industry. At the same time, expand the two -way opening of the bond market.During the process, the RMB exchange rate will be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and will not engage in competitive depreciation.
Li Keqiang also pointed out that China's manufacturing industry has been fully liberalized, and in key areas where foreign investment pays attention, it will continue to liberalize the share ratio restrictions; the open pace of the financial industry and other service industries will not only stop, but also continue to accelerate.
At the same time, China will deepen the opening of the financial and modern service industries, the restrictions on the cancellation of the foreign -funded stocks of securities and futures life insurance, and realize it in advance to 2020; in the process of opening, it must more strictly protect intellectual property rights.
In any case, as the second largest economy in the world, if the Chinese economy can maintain stable growth, it is undoubtedly one of the important guarantees of the region and even the global economic development.There are still elements.Therefore, what uneasy investors do not want to see will be the same scene as the Sino -US trade negotiations in the next few months as before.
