Feng Chucheng: Sino -US relations are at the key crossroads. Geographic competition is replacing the foundation of the past cooperation, becoming the long -term main theme of Sino -US relations.
On July 2, local time in the United States, the full text of the Washington Post issued a public letter sponsored by five senior American Chinese issues and former government officials, and 95 senior Chinese experts, scholars, former officials and business leaders co -deployed.The open letter has expressed concerns about the deterioration of Sino -US relations since Trump's ruling, and questioned the current policy of the US administrative authorities on the current China policy., Author's Note)
1. Although China's domestic and international behaviors have constituted a serious challenge to the world in recent years, and the United States requires firm and effective response measures.However, the current US government's strategy has not achieved the expected goals.
2. The United States should not consider China as a national security threat that needs to be in all directions or national security.Adopting a hostile attitude towards China will weaken the influence of more gentle, pragmatic, and cooperative officials and leaders in China, and instead empower the aggressive nationalist.Maintaining a reasonable balance between competition and cooperation will help the United States empowerment to mild officials, thereby promoting China to play a more constructive role in international affairs.
3. The United States regards China as enemies and forced China to decompose with global economy will damage the international status and reputation of the United States and damage the economic interests of all countries.The opposition of the United States does not prevent China's economic expansion, Chinese companies' global market share growth, and China's stronger position in international affairs.The United States cannot significantly slow down China's rise without hurting itself.The United States forced its allies to regard China as economic and political enemies, and will also weaken the relationship between the United States and its allies, and eventually leads to the United States rather than China is isolated.
4. Worries about replacing the United States as a global leader in China are exaggerated and unrealistic.Most countries are not interested in this result, and Beijing itself does not necessarily think that this goal is necessary or feasible.More importantly, a government dedicated to restricting the information and opportunities obtained by their own citizens, and oppressing ethnic minorities does not receive valuable international support, nor will it attract global genius.The best response to these behaviors in the United States is to work with allies and partners to create a more open and prosperous world, and give China the opportunity to participate in it.The efforts of isolation in China will weaken the efforts of Chinese people who want to create a more humane and inclusive society.
5. Although China has established the goal of building a world -class army in the middle of the century, it still faces huge resistance in the efforts of becoming a global military power.China's continuous strengthening military strength has weakened the long -term military advantage of the United States in the Western Pacific region.The best response is not an open -ending military competition that enters the open -style, surrounding offensive and deeply hitting weapons, and it is impossible to achieve a comprehensive U.S. military leadership in the Chinese border.The smarter policy is to cooperate with allies and maintain deterrence, and is committed to maintaining the ability, toughness and frustration of regional control with defense -centered regional to crack down on the territory of the United States and its allies.At the same time, strengthen the ability to cooperate with China's crisis management and control.
6. Beijing hopes to weaken the position of Western order in global order. However, Beijing does not want to completely overthrow the key economic order in this order. China itself has been the beneficiaries of these order in the past few decades.China's participation in the current international order is the key to the continuation of this order, and it is also the key to responding to common problems including climate change.The United States should encourage China to participate in a new, adjusted, and rising power of the international order.A zero -harmony strategy for Chinese characters will only encourage Beijing to decompose from the current order, or support a global order that is divided into harm to Western etiquette.
7. In short, the successful US strategy to China must focus on creating a long -lasting alliance with other countries to support economic and security goals.This strategy must be based on the actual assessment of China's perspective, etiquette, goals and behaviors, and accurately match the resource and policy goals and interests of the United States and its allies. Based on the United States to re -clarify its efforts to strengthen its own strength to become a demonstration of other countries.Investigating the best prerequisite for the interests of the United States is the strength of the United States to reshape its effective competition in the reform world, as well as the joint efforts of the United States and other countries and international organizations, rather than weakening and curbing China to participate in international affairs to participate in international affairs.This strategy that cannot reach the expected goal.
The experts who initiated this open letter were Taylor Fravel, a professor of political science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and former US ambassador J. Stapleton Roy, and Michael D. Swaine, a senior researcher at the Carnegie International Peace Foundation,Former East Asian Affairs Assistant Secretary of State and current Yale Law School Paul TSAI China Center Susan A. Thornton and Ezra Vogel, a lifelong professor of Harvard University.
Analysis: This open letter has a limited influence on Trump's administrative authorities on China.
First, most members of the Open Credit Department are old -generation scholars in the Chinese research academic community in the United States. This generation of scholars has the characteristics of sympathy and tolerance for Chinese and Chinese culture. ThereforeThe position of China, and this position is hard to call the mainstream in the United States today.Throughout the list of all 100 people, there are very few scholars who can really be called young and middle -aged, and only a few members under the age of 50 (the youngest Graham Webster graduated from Harvard University in 2010).Among the initiatives of the open letter, Rui Xiaojian was 84 years old. Fu Gaoyi was 88 years old. Shi Wen was 68 years old.Most co -scholars have lost their influence on the governors.
The age structure of the joint list reflects the intergenerational distribution of the American academic, policy circles, and business circles: The current middle -generation Chinese experts and scholars have a more eagle attitude towards China.Decisions provide a key person for suggestions.Another possibility is that the middle generation scholars are worried about the promising future and refused to jointly deploy in this open letter, but this also reflects the current anti -China mood to become the mainstream of the United States, which has caused self -examination in the academic community.
Second, an open letter pointed out that adopting hostile attitude towards China will weaken the influence of more gentle, pragmatic, and cooperative officials and leaders in China, and instead empower aggressive nationalism.However, in the current US policy formulation community, the mainstream opinion just believes that the United States should stop trying to empower Chinese reformers. The only effective strategy to China is to pressure MDash; MDASH; because the empowerment of the past decades for decades for decadesThe trial did not receive the expected results.
At the economic level, the United States has formed a new consensus against China.Although China has a high degree of economic dependence on the United States, the maker of economic policies in the United States generally believes that it is impossible to propose a proposition that China ’s economic development promotes the political order of China’ s economic development to lead the United States to the United States.On the contrary, the United States is even more concerned that China's development experience will provide the world with another reference to another more attractive economic and political governance structure, which is useless for the United States to continue to maintain its dominant position.Nixonism is no longer applicable to China today.
More importantly, the policy makers who have the right to speak now generally believe that the threat that China's military rise, economic expansion and international influence increase to the United States far exceeding the specific fields of China and the United States.Interests.
Third, the joint letter of the joint letter was scholars and experts who became famous in the United States and works, and the Trump administration was just in the expert vacuum mdash; mdash; its Chinese policy itself was not formulated by a team of scholars in China for a long time.Instead, a team that is more biased towards practical and more bias is randomly respond to the situation according to the situation.This means that its Chinese policy formulationThe underlying logic and this open letter are running counter to themselves.
Fourth, the public letter has repeatedly emphasized policies, and the biggest difference between the Trump administration and the former US government is the constraint that it is not affordable by the policy.It has been self -made in the business community in the United States during the campaign. Therefore, there is no need to worry about policies and measures that have a greater impact on American companies such as impacts such as punitive tariffs on China and Canada.Its U.S. priority and anti -global policy advocates that problems such as climate change are not Trump's policy priority, so Trump is not willing to seek cooperation with China in these fields.Trump's strategies such as the comprehensive agreement of the Iranian nuclear issue and advocating the Indo -Pacific strategy have also shown that it has given up his attempt to abandon the multilateral framework.
More importantly, Trump did not intend to maintain the rules -based trading system established by the United States after World War II.This makes China and the United States a zero -sum game. Only a few limited structural frameworks can restrict the contradiction between China and the United States.
For scholars and officials that can really affect the formulation of US policy in China, one thing is certain: the essence of Sino -US relations in their eyes is Strategic Competition.They regard China as a Revisionist Power, and believe that China's fundamental goal is to weaken the international influence of the United States.In this context, there may be very limited cooperation space between China and the United States, but any idea that these cooperation spaces that can surpass Sino -US relations strategic competition are naive.
In this context, we should realize that although China and the United States have not entered the Cold War in the traditional sense, Sino -US relations are in an extremely important crossroads mdash; mdash; geopolitical competition between China and the United States is changingThe basis of cooperation in the past forty years has become the main theme of Sino -US relations for a long time in the future.The Political and Commercial Systems in the United States have basically reached a consensus that the contact model adopted to China in the past is a failed consensus; in Washington, the capital of the United States, the atmosphere of politics and commercial lobbying for better Sino -US relations is unprecedented.live.In the context of the collective turning of the US policy system, the American business elites cannot provide important buffers that have always existed before.
Sino -US relations in the period of contact have arrived.
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