Author: Zhou Xueying

In 2018, the Indian People's Party lost in the five state elections such as the North State. This not only put a lot of pressure on the Modi and the Indian Party, but also made many observers think that this was the vane of the Indian 2019 election.However, in the election just ended this year, the People's Party camp led by the current Prime Minister Modi won with an overwhelming advantage, and India opened the Modi 2.0 era.

During Modi's first five -year term, the leaders of China and India have established an informal high -level meeting mechanism. So in the Modi 2.0 era, what is the trend of China -India relations?

On June 1, the United States canceled the qualifications of India's inclusive treatment countries, causing strong dissatisfaction in India. What is the trend of US -Indian relations in the future?

Observer.com interviewed Professor Lin Minwang, a researcher at the International Institute of International Issues and Deputy Director of the South Asian Research Center. The following is the full text of the interview.

Observer.com: Many people, including you, thought that Modi was not a matter of re -election, but it was difficult for a party to win half of the seats, but in the end, the Indian party won the overwhelming advantage. How do you look at this slightly unexpected situation?

Lin Minwang: In fact, it can be said that there are not a few accurately predicted the results of the election.After the Indian election vote, the vast majority of views are that Modi will continue to govern, but few media have accurately predicted that the Indian party is more than half of it.There are a large number of unpredictable situations in the Indian elections.Secondly, India adopts a simple majority of votes for election system, so judging by support rate is actually difficult to predict the accurate results.

Modi's election, including the Indian Party's once again obtaining an overwhelming advantage, is still inherent.

The results of this election show that first, the overall strength of the Indian party is on the rise. The number of nominations for this candidate has more than 100 more than 100 people than the National Party, indicating that the Indian party has a good talent.The final result also saw that the Indian party has a overwhelming advantage.

Second, the National University Party is declining.Laher worked very hard in this campaign, and this time Pletan also came up with a voting for Lahulla, but the role was not very great.Therefore, in this sense, the political ecology of the entire society in India has undergone relatively large changes.In the past, India was still a traditional society. Everyone was recognized by identity and status, but now the atmosphere of anti -construction, anti -elite, and anti -traditional atmosphere is relatively heavy.

In fact, Laher's willingness to participate in politics is not too strong. Priyanka also said this time it was said that her son wanted her to join the politics before joining the election campaign.Her son said his mother, you have such a good political ability, why not use it, so she came out.But the current election results show that in the past, the National University Party always used the Gansi family to help the National University's practice.

At present, India's political face is that on the one hand, the National Congress of the National Congress has weakened sharply, and on the other hand, the rapid rise of the Indian party MDASH; MDASH; nowEssenceWinning the Indian Party with an overwhelming advantage this time will drive the cultivation of a large number of young politicians in the party. It can really be said that it is a talent.In this sense, the Indian party will be the most important force in the Indian party in the future.

Observer.com: This Supreme Council will also be India Prime Minister Modi and Pakistan's new Prime Minister Emran Middot; Khan meets for the first time in formal occasions.India -Pakistan relations have always been unstable. As a official member of the SCO, how can the two countries eliminate differences on this platform?

Lin Minwang: For India -Pakistan differences, the platform of the SCO has not yet reflected a larger and more specific reconciliation effect.But now that the leaders of India and Pakistan must meet each year, the leaders of India and Pakistan must meet, so in order to avoid being too embarrassing, the relationship between the two sides will work hard to improve the atmosphere before meeting, provide some convenience to each other, and so on.

For example, Modi's special plane flew over Pakistan this time and then went directly to Central Asia. There was no detour.And other India aircraft still cannot fly directly over Pakistan, so this is also a convenience provided by Pakistan to India.

The Qingdao Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year was the same.The convening of the summit provides a platform for the leaders of India and Pakistan, so that both parties can say hello and greet each other. In a certain sense, it will help to suppress the conflict between the two countries.If the leaders of the two countries have no need to meet, then how to do it in diplomacy.

In this sense, the SCO has a certain effect, but the mediation role of the SCO in India -Pakistan relations is still weak.Many people think that Russia, China, India, and Pakistan can establish a regulatory mechanism, but now India cannot accept it because India feels that they are sitting equally with Russia and China.If India -Pakistan has been adjusted intermediary by Russia and China, it will make people feel like Pakistan listened to China, and India listen to Russia's opinions.For India, it will feel that its status is lowered, and India cannot accept Russia's position in India.Because India's economy is now 5th, Russia has ran to the 12th place.Therefore, they are just traditional military defense cooperation now. India is unlikely to accept the status setting of Russia as the elder brother.

Observer.com: At the end of May, the United States canceled the qualifications of the Indian inclusive treatment country. According to the India's Deccan Herald, India was very dissatisfied with this and intends to join the ranks of China and Russia.As an emerging country, what cooperation can China and India start in the United States hegemony?

Lin Minwang: The United States has canceled India's qualifications for inclusive treatment countries. For Indian diplomacy, it is indeed a hot potato, which is not easy to cope.In terms of joint trade policies against the United States, China and India do have room for cooperation.In the past, the two sides had common demands in the WTO reforms, cope with global protectionism, and maintenance of multilateralism. Chairman Xi and Modi also emphasized this when meeting with Bishkak on June 13.However, is India directly confront the United States on the issue of cancellation of inclusive treatment countries?I think the possibility is very low. After all, Tao Guang is a better strategy choice for India.

In the future, China and India has a lot of room for cooperation in terms of maintenance or establishment of new economic order, both at the regional level and global level.

Observer.com: Before Modi was more resistant to the Belt and Road Initiative, India did not participate in the two Belt and Road summit. In the Modi 2.0 era, is it possible for India to join the Belt and Road Initiament or attitude?

Lin Minwang: India's attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative. My personal opinion is that the possibility of changes is very low, because it involves a political correct issue, and it also involves the territorial sovereignty in the Kashmir region that India and Pakistan have always been fighting for.The question of appeal.It can only be said that India may suppress the differences between China on the Belt and Road issue and do not continue to talk about it.

Regarding the 2nd Belt and Road International Cooperation Summit Forum in 2019, Ambassador Luo Zhaohui's evaluation was that India adopted a very mature and rational approach.It means that there are differences between the two countries, but do not let this difference publicize, let alone expand into conflict.

Observer.com: Previously, the United States had always wanted to win India against China and proposed the Indo -Pacific strategy.But Modi does not seem to have a lot of interest. Under the new pressure of the United States, can his great country balance foreign policy continue to advance?Will it make some compromises?

Lin Minwang: India's policy is very clear about the Indian strategy. It requires the United States to balance China. It requires the United States to stay in the Asia -Pacific region.For India, now it has encountered a brand new and unprecedented situation. China has grown into a superpowers on its side. At present, it can only be balanced by the United States.

India has encountered a large change in a century. Among the surrounding countries in India, China has become the second in the world, and its strength in all aspects is much stronger than India. For example, the defense expenditure is four times that of India., GDP is more than five times that of India, and other aspects are much stronger than India. For example, China has an independent industrial manufacturing system and arms production system.

It is difficult for India to accept such a powerful China to rise in its neighboring side. Therefore, India's current policy appeal of the Asia -Pacific region is called Asian multi -polarization. The so -called multi -polarization is not to allow China to be dominant, so it must have power to balance China.This is a very basic and important security concern in India, so India will continue to advance the Indo -Pacific strategy.

Of course, India can also balance China through its own development.However, it seems that India's own development is not large enough, so it will substantially launch a strategic docking with the United States, but it will strive to maintain it within a range, that is, avoiding China to feel India and the United States.