Lu Kewen: The security belt China has scratched the red line to the United States

At this time of last month, I had breakfast with a Chinese friend in Chengdu, the prosperous Sichuan provincial capital, to discuss the deteriorating Sino -US relations.The only newspaper that could be seen that morning was the internationally renowned local newspaper Chengdu Business Daily.But its headlines caught my eyeball Mdash; mdash; especially the eye -catching red box on the homepage, the first time the three new red lines in China in the Sino -US trade war were released.

Wonderful that the headlines of major Chinese newspapers that day were almost all of them.Since Murdoch's media reported in the Australian election, I have never seen such a neat report.

Obviously, we have entered a new world. Although the destruction of the trade war is becoming increasingly serious, it is difficult for us to end it.China will not give half a step for the United States who still retain the tariff after signing an agreement; China will not accept the United States to re -impose tariffs in unilaterally that China does not comply with the agreement and rejected China's countermeasures; ChinaIt will also not accept Trump's requirements for continuously allowing China to expand the purchase list, thereby lowering the bilateral trade deficit to the level that satisfies it.

The most important thing about these three red lines is not what they oppose, but that China chooses to make the red line public, which means that Beijing cannot make concessions in these aspects in the future.In China, if the two parties have to reach an agreement next, it mainly depends on what Trump does.

After the eleventh round of high -level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, Liu He, the deputy prime minister of the State Council and the comprehensive dialogue between the Sino -US economy, was interviewed.

In China's criticism of the United States, I have never seen my emotions for 30 years.In daily reports, the media believes that the United States is a bullying person, and Chinese official media remind readers that as early as 12 months after the founding of New China, the United States was deadlocked on the Korean battlefield.

Not long ago, ... the chairman went south to the place where the Red Army began in 1934, Mdash; mdash; Jiangxi.Although the Red Army was seriously lost in the Long March, it still won the final victory 15 years later.President Xi also visited a rare earth factory in Jiangxi. Although it was not clearly speaking, it was mentioned that many industrial sectors in the United States at the end rely on China's rare earth supply.

These measures have passed clear information to all Chinese citizens: China has suffered too many foreign attacks in the past 5000 years, but we Chinese have always been able to bear the burden of humiliation and eventually win the victory.At the same time, if China calculates that if the trade war broke out, the annual economic growth rate will decrease by 1.4 percentage points.In order to ensure that the growth rate is maintained above 6%, China has implemented or prepared to implement a series of financial, currency and infrastructure investment measures, and other measures are also brewing.

However, it was poured on the fire that Trump announced on May 15 that according to US law, Chinese communications giant Huawei will be included in the entity list, which means that all American companies must not provide them with components.On May 31, China issued countermeasures to announce the unreliable entity list, which will be included in the list that adopts discriminatory measures on Chinese entities or threatened China's national security interests.

In this way, foreign companies are under the firepower of China and the United States.Considering all the above situations, what is the prospect of reaching an agreement between China and the United States?The most fundamental case is that both parties actually need trade agreements.If Trump wants to be re -elected, he must continue the momentum of economic growth in the United States until 2020, and the growth cycle of the United States has been considered long.

To do this, Trump will not completely break the negotiations, otherwise market confidence will collapse, and the real economy in the United States will also fall into recession on Trump's most important bones.

For China, it is still limited to boost economic growth by stimulating means. At the same time, it is necessary to consider the number of debt and the feeling of private economy.It is also important to calm the trade war to boost market confidence.

I predict that the 20th National Group Osaka Summit will restart the negotiation process; Trump will make concessions on the top two red lines in China, and China will expand the scale of procurement, although it will not reach the number of Trump's request.The result of this treatment is that both sides remain decent.

Of course, rough politics may destroy it all.Trump is still constantly calculating how to stabilize the votes and what kind of agreement to block the MDASH of the Lord of the Civilian Party; MDASH; the latter tries to look more conservative on the Chinese issue.

However, although the trade war may have solutions, the technical war has just begun.On this issue, we should all have a seat belt and prepare to meet the impact. The scope includes the Internet, telecommunications, fintech, emerging digital payment systems and unknown artificial intelligence fields.