Zhang Ming: With the gradual implementation of the Trinity Regulation Strategy, first -tier cities will gradually convert from the Hong Kong model to the Singapore model.Real estate has a rich role, and it may be gone.
Recently, Sino -US trade frictions have deteriorated again, and China's economic growth is expected to be reduced.Some opinion believes that in order to stabilize economic growth, the Chinese government may once again relax real estate regulation, so the first and second -tier real estate markets may become hot again in the next time.
Indeed, from a historical point of view, whenever China's economic growth slows down, the tight curse of the real estate market will relax, which will bring a new round of prosperity of the real estate market.The short cycle of the Chinese real estate market every three years is roughly caused by the reincarnation of relaxation and tightening.
However, it is easy to move.After 15 years of prosperity of real estate, the problem of over -reliance on real estate in China has become more and more obvious: first, China's economic growth relies on the real estate industry and land finance; second, the Assets Liabilities of China Commercial Bank and China Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Real EstateThe industry is closely bound together; third, the continuous rise in real estate prices is the most important factor in exacerbating the gap between the income and property of Chinese urban residents.Therefore, if you continue to return to the traditional model of economic growth to drive economic growth, it is tantamount to drinking and quenching thirst.Even if it helps to stabilize short -term growth, the cost and risk of medium and long term are beyond doubt.
Based on the above considerations, the author believes that even if China's macroeconomic growth rate has declined in the future, the central government will still maintain policy fixed force, and the probability of significant relaxation of real estate regulation in first -tier cities is very low.
As we all know, the demand for real estate has always been very strong due to the net inflow of large -scale labor for large -scale labor.For various reasons, local governments in first -tier cities have not been strong in terms of land supply, which causes the supply to continue to be lower than demand, which makes housing prices in first -tier cities in the situation of vulnerable and difficult to fall.Since the regulation of 930 in 2016, the Chinese government has mainly restricted the demand (purchase restriction, loan restrictions) and the supply (compressed open business financing scale) and compressed real estate market transactions to suppress rising house prices in first -tier cities.However, the results of this regulatory model may further deteriorate the imbalance of supply and demand, which will cause a retaliated rebound in the case of relaxation and house prices.
However, according to the author's observation, since the second half of 2018, the Chinese government has undergone major changes on the regulation of real estate regulation in first -tier cities.This new set of regulatory ideas can be described as a trinity.
One of the regulatory ideas is to differentiate the potential needs of originally intended to buy commercial houses by increasing the supply of many non -commercial housing housing.
Let's take Shenzhen as an example.In August 2018, Shenzhen introduced the opinions on deepening the reform of the housing system, accelerating the establishment of multi -main supply, multi -channel guarantee, and rent -and -purchase housing supply and guarantee system.The document proposes that Shenzhen will add 1.5 million houses by 2035.Among them, only 40%of commercial houses, while public rental housing, residential commercial houses and talent houses account for 60%.In April 2019, Shenzhen has issued a draft of soliciting opinions on public rental housing, residential commercial houses and talent rooms.Among them, public rental housing and Anju -type commercial houses are mainly targeted at low -income families with Shenzhen household registration, and the talent rooms are mainly targeted at various types of talents identified by the Shenzhen Municipal Government, and the talent rooms can be rented and purchased.Imagine that once the above -mentioned management measures really landed, then in Shenzhen in the future, the people who decided to continue to buy commercial houses may have a significant shrinkage compared to before.
We take Beijing as an example.In 2018, several ministries and commissions that had not concentrated in the houses for many years began to provide a large -scale fund -raising building.There are also more colleges and universities that have been approved by the Ministry of Housing and Construction, and they can raise funds to build a house.Imagine a more extreme scene, that is, if all civil servants and colleges and universities in Beijing no longer buy commercial houses, will the potential people buying commercial houses significantly shrink significantly?In addition, at present, Beijing seems to be significantly increased to supply public rental housing and a residential commercial housing.
The second of regulating ideas is to gradually force the idle second -hand houses into the market through a policy portfolio represented by real estate tax.
Although the new supply of real estate in first -tier cities has always been rare, idle housing in various cities is actually very large.From this perspective, although the exacerbation of Sino -US trade friction may delay the introduction of real estate tax, the real estate tax will definitely come.The purpose of real estate tax and other policies (for example, the policy that restricted a family that restricts a family that can enjoy a preferential preferential housing) is to increase the holding cost of families holding multiple houses, so that these families will sell some of these families in the end partThe housing accumulated at hand, thereby increasing the supply of second -hand housing in the market.According to some real estate tax versions rumored at the current market, the tax rate for the real estate tax for multiple houses is progressive. Therefore, the more real estate holdings, the more the holding costs caused by real estate will increase significantly.
The third of regulatory ideas takes time whether it is differentiated or forced to supply supply. Therefore, before the first two measures take effect, the core purchase loan restriction index will not be fundamentally loose.
Before the effect of new measures, if you rashly relax the purchase restriction measures, in the context of the imbalance of supply and demand in the market, house prices are likely to rise retaliated, which will not only make the past regulatory efforts, but also make new regulatory measures.At the beginning of the introduction, he faced a very passive situation.Therefore, the Chinese government will not easily relax the existing purchase restriction policy, especially core indicators.
The core indicator of real estate purchase restriction is that non -specific urban hukou cannot buy a house, and local household registration families can only buy two houses.The core indicator of real estate loans is to restrict the down payment of multiple houses.For example, currently buying a second house in Beijing, the down payment ratio is as high as 60-70%. It is this measure that really locks the liquidity of the second-hand market transaction.The author believes that real estate transactions in first -tier cities in the short term may properly relax the down payment ratio of the first home and the interest rate of the first home loan.
The above -mentioned new three -in -one measures have strong complementarity.Increasing the supply of new non -commercial housing is to reduce the potential demand for purchasing commercial housing, and to force the supply of second -hand housing through taxes or other policies to increase the potential supply of commercial housing.EssenceBefore these two policies take effect, the government still has to compress transactions and suppress housing prices through purchase and loan restriction policies.
With the gradual implementation of the above trio regulation strategies, the real estate market of first -tier cities will gradually convert the Hong Kong model to the Singapore model.On the one hand, this means that the probability of continuously rising in the past 15 years has decreased significantly in the past 15 years; on the other hand, even if house prices in first -tier cities will not fall significantly in the future, the liquidity of the real estate market may decline significantly.In other words, the nominal value of real estate may still be stable, but if investors want to realize real estate in the short term, they may have to give a certain discount.
Once this situation becomes a reality, then we can roughly make the following judgments, that is, as the role of real estate as the most important means of wealth in the past 15 years, it may have been gone.In this regard, investors should be prepared in advance.Especially for the newly -needed families who need to buy a house with high leveraged houses, they should do a certain risk prevention.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
