Since the beginning of the spring of 2018, the Sino -US trade war has been ups and downs, and it has repeatedly twists and turns.Especially after entering May 2019, trade negotiations that have been promising for a while suddenly touched the reefs. The two countries increased tariffs and accusations with each other. Sino -US economic and trade relations even from Sino -US relations.Come to the wind full building.
It has been two weeks since China -US economic and trade negotiations have emerged, and the reasons for the reefs of the negotiations have always their own words. Public opinion from all walks of life is also sincere.Judging from the information released by the two parties, the United States has accused China of repeated and not credit on the negotiation position. China believes that the United States has increased the price and pressure on the limit in the negotiations.The views of the two sides have their own perspectives, but they seem to have failed to explain why they were showing out at this time.
One may be worth exploring that at the beginning of the negotiations, in the early and early stages of the Trump administration, facing the aggressive and aspirations of the United States, China ’s many reasons to show many of the requirements of the United States to show the tolerance and flexible attitude towards the United States.The issues that are controversial and the bottom line are blurred or temporarily put on the bottom line. As a result, the negotiations between the two parties can therefore be continuously promoted in the direction of the United States in the direction of the United States.
As the negotiations continue to be deepened and the election is coming again, it is also the United States to open an optimistic attitude towards the agreement that it is unprecedentedly successful, the appetite and expectations of all parties, and the expectations of being lifted high. China is deemed that it is impossible to give up and the United States insists on its own opinions.Different opinions on the questions made the United States unexpected, frustrated and even teased, and thus sacrificing tariff threats again to force China to change the string.
This possibility can not only explain why the seemingly smooth negotiations in the early stage will touch the reef at this time, but also explain that Trump suddenly changed his tone while making a statement of no longer rushing to reach an agreement.Big sticks, in the contrary, they need to listen to the agreement, exposing their desire to reach a trade agreement as soon as possible.
From a larger time span, after the US war in the United States, in the face of the relatively limited taxation scale of the first round, China conducted countermeasures with peers and showed the attitude and hope to the outside world.The intention of the war.With the rapid expansion of the trade war in the United States, especially after threatening the tariff rate of US $ 200 billion in Chinese goods increased its tariff rate to 25%, China successfully delayed the United States through the head of the head of the Butonos Aires Summit through the head of the two countries.The effective time of a round of tariff measures, and then announced further delay to maximize the adverse impact of China's preparation, response and digestion. It has won a certain period of time.
At present, although the United States threatens tariffs on all the remaining Chinese goods, from the first wave of US $ 60 billion, to the second wave of US $ 200 billion, to the third wave of 325 billion US dollars, the expansion of the scope increases tariffs.The degree of measures for measures to the United States has continued to increase, and the impact of this damage has been self -evident to the Trump administration facing the test of the election.
On the other hand, although the trade war broke out after the outbreak of economy, finance, trade, etc., so far, China's economy and society have not been seriously impacted.After this showdown in China and the United States, China has been determined to break the boat, and further establish the thoughts that do not make too much compromise and do not hold too much fantasy.High -propaganda offensive and preparation for public opinion, to improve the cohesion and centripetal force of the internal force, so that the public can make psychological preparations for the possible long -term conflicts, sharp confrontation between China and the United States in the field of trade and other fields.It shows that China will no longer be able to submit to the pressure of the United States and be led by the United States on economic and trade issues.
The offensive and defensive form between the Sino -US trade war is almost completely dominated by the United States, and the time window of the time to move to China to master the initiative is gradually opened.
The possibility of reconciliation between China and the United States
There are three possible circumstances in the next trend of the Sino -US trade war: unable to reach an agreement, the agreement that both parties are satisfied with, and a compromise agreement.
As far as China is concerned, due to the advantages of its own system and volume, the negative impact of the trade war on the stability of the overall social situation is short -term and controllable, and it will not form a subversive impact.At the same time, the trade war objectively helps to push up and open, structure adjustment, and industrial upgrading.However, the continuous trade war with the world's largest country is not conducive to creating a stable development environment and market expectations, which may lead to shaking and changing the investment and layout of the physical industry.
The defeat of the Bao Bao Yu Trump does not mean that it will definitely reach a more favorable reconciliation with the United States in the future, not to mention that Trump's political life may not end.Therefore, under the premise that the bottom line of the Passover and the foundation of the system is not accepted, it will continue to adhere to the moderate concession, ease the confrontation of China and the United States in the most important areas of bilateral, and win the time and space for the stable economic development. It is still the most in line with China's strategic interests.
As far as the United States is concerned, the global industry and trade pattern formed after many years of adjustment and evolution will be difficult to change overnight. Further additional tariffs will only make the United States itself more obvious in the short term.As a country, the United States may have a better impact in the trade war compared to other countries, but as a government, it is subject to the political structure of the two -party system.This is what the Trump administration is about to usher in the general election.From Trump recently through social media, using exaggerated words to publish a shouting that it seems that there is no harm with the Chinese trade war. It can be seen that he tried to appease supporters and the basic trade war on the Greater State of Agricultural StateWorries of impact issues.
Therefore, China and the United States cannot reach a trade agreement are not their respective optimal options. The deep -rooted institutional contradictions have made the two parties reaching their own satisfactory agreements without conditions. Signing a compromise agreement has become the most realistic choice between the two countries.Judging from the three core concerns proposed in China recently, it is not difficult to reach or start.As long as the leaders of the two sides maintain rationality and pragmatic, Sino -US economic and trade negotiations can find a space for compromise and reconciliation.
As a big country that leads the international order after World War II, and a emerging country that is most likely to achieve catching up in the past three decades, even if China and the United States can reach a trade agreement, the offensive and defensive on the two parties based on the trust deficit and cognitive differences such as trust deficit and cognitive differences.Fighting will not calm down.The United States will not only continue to cause difficulties in economic and trade issues. Politics, diplomacy, military, culture, science and technology and other aspects may become the field of preventing and suppressing China's next card.And if Trump was elected again, a U.S. administrative authorities without the pressure of re -election may become more adventurous and unconvinced in the fight with China.
(The author is currently the Chinese financial industry practitioner)
