Since the start of the Sino -US trade war, there is no signs of fever at all. Various analysis of various geopolitics, trade and industrial chains is endless, but I have always felt that it is sandwiched in two elephants.Layout multinational enterprises and investors involved in the capital market.Since the beginning of the year, the global stock market has undulating birds like a bowl, and many investors have begun to worry about whether the financial turmoil of the ten -year curse will come again?Where will the mainland companies that have been listed in the United States will go?How will American companies rely on mainland supply chains to respond?How can the financial system be reorganized?Will the largest creditors of the US public debt be stupid?These are the global financial fog that no one can see, but no one dares to ignore.
Let's start with the perspective of the two companies, and the economist is very interesting. Its magazine preface theory in early June uses One Thousand and One Sleepless NightSAlibaba.Indeed, if you want to understand how the increasingly cooling relationship between the United States and the mainland will change global business, then Alibaba is the best target, because although this company is listed in the United States, it is a family in Hangzhou and 90 % of income income.Pure Chinese companies from the mainland.Since the confrontation between China and the United States, it is rumored that it is ready to be listed in Hong Kong. Everyone interprets that this is a sign of mainland companies to purchase insurance to reduce their dependence on Western finance.In fact, the United States is indeed not as friendly to mainland companies as before, and listed that the United States will make these mainland companies face the embarrassment of loyalty.But just like the economist's Far from Home mentioned in another article, I am afraid it is not as easy as going home.
It cannot be denied that the trade war between China and the United States has expanded from tariffs to legal extradition, entrepreneurial investment and global US dollar payment system.It is easy to see how a US listing can become a weakness of being attacked.For example, if the mainland boycotts Apple or BOEING, the United States can be forced to stop by suspending the transactions of mainland companies in US stocks, but even if the situation does not deteriorate, it is enough to make the Apple boss Tim Cook the most.The supply chain strategy for the prematureness was too tossing. Who would have expected that Tim Cook was famed in China that year, and now it will become the most worrying risk misunderstanding every day?Although the status of New York's financial center is still difficult to shake in the short term, the greater hidden significance behind it is that with the outbreak of the trade war, the extremely complicated global financial system and commercial network are being reorganized.
In addition, in March this year, the mainland sold US government bonds worth 20 billion US dollars in the market, which caused many people's doubts. Worried that the mainland would fight against Trump by selling up to 1.1 trillion US dollars on the selling hand.IntersectionBut government bonds are not ordinary securities.I think the mainland will not do so, nor can it be done. Seriously, the number of public debts held by the mainland only accounts for 5%of the US $ 22 trillion US $ 22 trillion in the total of the United States. In fact, the impact is very limited.The United States' hegemony in the global financial sector will instead because of reaction force, so that the US public debt is more attractive in danger during the period of uncertainty.
On the contrary, if the mainland sells them and exchanged funds to RMB, the RMB exchange rate will not only be forced to rise, but also damage the export industry that has fallen into troubles, let alone the funds that sell US public debt also find another security assets for storageAnd now in this world, it is not easy for you to find a security asset that can replace US public debt.
All in all, even the most successful companies in the world, such as Alibaba and Apple, are trying to find new coping plans.The stock market since this year has long told us that the fog of the market is destined to disperse, and the U.S. public bond market will still play the best wind absorption of risk aversion funds in the short term.At present, it seems that the status of the United States in the global financial center is still impeccable. What is really most troublesome is that the United States and the mainland are now like two children who have randomly.The mainland hopes to make the United States learn to respect itself by becoming hegemonic, but there is no more open market and more transparent financial supervision. In fact, it is difficult to have legitimacy to fight for the financial scepter.And the United States is not good. A bullying person will only make himself a hateful bad policeman.Anyway, all of this is completely different from that of TIM COOK just take over the Apple in 2011 or in 2014 when Ma Yun knocked on the bell at the New York Stock Exchange.The inside will be unable to throw it away.
(Author Ding Xuewen, Chuangjun Partner)
