Society: Three inspirations of Japan and South Koreas residual trade dilemma

Economic Daily News

The US -China trade war spread rapidly, and the scientific and technological war, saliva war, educational war and even civilized war have signs signs.All sectors of the world are asking what the world will look like tomorrow.The world structure after the US -China war dares to predict, but it is not experienced to refer to it; the experience of Japan and South Korea in the past decade has provided a lot of borrowing mirrors.

If the political factors and future patterns of the United States and China confrontation are temporarily pulled away, compared to Taiwan -US relations, the biggest challenge faced by Taiwan's short -term period is actually the deterioration of trade, investment and business conditions of this long -term economic partner in mainland China.Unpredictable issues.Although this challenge has continued for many years, it was more like chronic diseases in the past: long -term hidden concerns but short -term cope.Furthermore, in the past 20 years, mainland China has always continued to increase the discount of Taiwanese businessmen with a more politically and softer two -handed strategy, which has also suppressed the sense of urgency of the problem.

Regardless of whether the stable thinking on both sides of the strait or the consideration of the subsequent potential of China, at this moment, it is not advisable to high -profile the lower stones and umbrellas of the downhole and rainy days in mainland China.Under the objective situation of large enterprises Chinese and Taiwanese businessmen), in front of the United States and China confrontation against many Taiwanese businessmen, there is a impact of acute attacks.

Looking at the Asia -Pacific peers, Japan and South Korea have experienced different experiences in the past few years.Look at Japan first.In 2012, Japan's investment in China has reached its highest peak in the past 20 years, exceeding $ 11 billion. However, in the same year, due to Japan's nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands, it has caused a strong rebound in mainland China.Violence or resistance of daily commodity in Japanese goods.Later, Japan plummeted by 40%of China investment, and fell 40%of the following year. Since 2015, the investment amount has dropped to only about 30%in 2012.

South Korea has not been recovered by the Chinese economic sanctions after the 2017 Sad's incident, and it has been humiliated during the middle of President Moon Jae -in, which has led to a negative change in the drama in society and enterprises to China.In terms of investment in mainland China, the final quarter of 2017 decreased by nearly 50%, and the overall decline was 30%.

Of course, the situation facing Japan and South Korea is very different from the background and reasons for the US -China trade war. However, for Japanese and Korean businessmen, the problem of deterioration of economic conditions in the economic partners is exactly the same.From the aforementioned three -year investment in Japan, it is impossible to carry out fierce transfer of investment places in a short period of time, but it is not impossible to carry out fierce transfer of investment places in the short term, but it is necessary to have strong pressure.At that time, the hard work arrangements became a firewall with lower injuries to the US -China Trade War and South Korean businessmen.

Japan's second experience is to have precise plans for production and supply chain, and maintain Japan as the core of production.According to a survey of the Japan Trade Promotion Institution (Jetro), 56%of Japanese merchants provide Chinese domestic demand completely or in principle; the remaining export arrangements, 61%return to Japan, and only 5.9%of those who export from the United States directly from the mainland will be exported from the mainland.It is not directly affected by the trade war.Taking Taiwan as an example, Japanese businessmen also supply domestic demand, and those who are exported directly from Taiwan will return to Japan and 34%of China, and only 5.7%are exported to the United States.On the other hand, some mainland Taiwanese businessmen exported more than 80 % of the US exports, and their danger was evident.

There is no doubt that the structure of the Taiwan and Japanese industries is different, and the layout of Japan and South Korea cannot be fully compared.But these experiences also inspired us.

First, things are artificial, and there will be a solution for stress.Although the US -China trade war is overwhelming, the impact may be lower than the pressure faced by Japan and South Korea in the past few years.Therefore, Japan and South Korea can adjust, and Taiwanese businessmen can.

Second, Taiwanese businessmen need to have a stronger sense of risk, especially in the United States as the market. They really need to seriously consider and adjust the structure of Taiwan's orders and Chinese production.Japan's decentralized supply chain architecture may be a more reasonable arrangement to reduce the problem of centralized concentration. It should also think about the meaning of the product to finally return to MIT.

Third, government trade policies cannot only be exported, but also need to be imported.For example, in the future, if you want to attract more Taiwanese businessmen to sell parts to Taiwan to continue to produce, the first serious reviewer is my country's import tariffs to avoid protecting the original intention of the industry, but it will become a burden on Taiwanese businessmen.