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The United States has no good preparations for mutual benefit with China at all, and psychologically unable to accept a strong alien country that may be more powerful than the United States.(Xinhua News Agency)
Even a superpowers such as the United States have to bear to swallow their voices and adopt realistic practices to avoid further damage to national interests.For example, Iranianmen in 1985, the Buruta Camp explosion in 1983, and the fall of the Black Eagle helicopter in Somalia in 1993, the United States chose to shrink.In many people's eyes, the United States is shameful, but it is actually a strong, confident and mature manifestation.As a rising superpower, and thinking about centuries of national shame, China is just the most vulnerable to injury in this regard, and under impulses to make disruptive mistakes.
The United States is comprehensively suppressing China with the trend of Taishan, and at the same time, it has strangled the technical capabilities of specific enterprises and China.His sharp offensive reflects not only to President Trump's consistent style, but also reflects the extreme anxiety and panic of the United States about China's rise at a deeper level.
The United States has no good preparations for mutual benefit with China at all, and psychologically unable to accept a strong alien country that may be more powerful than the United States.Under the control of this psychology, the relationship between the two countries has a possibility of long -term comprehensive confrontation and even physical conflict.After a year of lion opening and the extreme pressure for one year, China's counterattack is expected, but the counterattack method and the purpose to be achieved must be carefully planned to avoid falling into the Xidide trap and not returning to comprehensive confrontation.road.
In the era of nuclear weapons and globalization, the comprehensive war between superpowers is meaningless except for suicide.However, the logic of the Xiu Xidid trap still plays a role. Its iconic way of thinking is to measure everything with the growth of strength, including the field of investment and trade that is generally considered to be mutually beneficial and win -win.Communication, tourism, immigration, network information, transportation, etc., let alone military, security, international politics, global governance, foreign publicity and development of soft power, etc. This is actually the New Cold War.
However, this is different from the independent international system of the United States and the Soviet Union during the Old Cold War. China is currently in the center of the world's capitalist economic system. It is a factory in the world.use.
In the trade war for more than a year, China tried to strive for a compromise on the basis of appropriate concessions to maintain normal economic and trade relations, which is correct.Now the attitude is tough, and it is also correct to make a comprehensive counterattack and a long -term trade war.The peace that tolerates is fragile, and the peace that comes out is healthy and lasting.It is not to cross the opponent, but to play a new situation of peaceful and mutually beneficial coexistence.This is not impossible, because the aggressive momentum of the United States and the situation of passive beating in China are all superficial phenomena, which cannot change the general trend of the two countries' movements.
Look at the international situation first.Yu Wei, the only superpowers after the Cold War, can still mobilize allies in the United States in the United States and push their will.However, because Trump's basic guidelines for the loneliness of the United States under the priority of the United States and to destroy international relations, the US -led post -war order in the United States has fallen into turbulence and faces great changes.What Trump does, is the international political capital accumulated in the United States for hundreds of years, turning the United States from a great country into a mediocre and domineering country, and even a little chicken belly country. This can only shake itGlobal leadership has accelerated its decline.
The transformation of the United States has given China the space for expanding its international influence.Trump makes a small nature, and he is not in accordance with the conventional cards. He tramples the recognized rules, which harms the interests of a large number of countries.At this time, if China can show fairness and principles, preside over justice, and play a constructive role in the international community, it has embarked on the fast track leading to the leaders of the big country.This is a good opportunity for a century.At this moment, how China has a card, which is critical to how it approaches the center of the world stage; we must resolutely abandon the chick belly and intestines that have been brought from time to time in the previous behavior, and show the appearance of a responsible big country.Trump's United States forms contrast.
American allies are losing their confidence in the United States, starting to find their own way, and no longer look at U.S. Malaysia.A differentiated and east -west world has greatly expanded China's strategic space, coupled with the space that China has opened up in the third world, making this Cold War unlike the cold war.In developing countries, even some Western countries will be attracted by Chinese funds, huge markets and novel governance concepts, and they will be centrifugal with the United States on many issues and even run counter to the United States.
In this case, the anti -China Alliance that the United States wants to establish is difficult to succeed, unless China gives them a common reason.China should do everything possible to avoid becoming an enemy with the United States, and the same as possible countries, especially Western countries, to become economic and trade partners, forming a community of destiny.In this regard, soft power is 100 times more effective than hard power.If most countries do not take China as a threat and want to buy or sell with China, the New Cold War will not be able to fight.
Look at the situation of the two countries.China's political situation is stable, the society is strong, and the economic growth is still on the fast lane. The achievements of national governance are recognized.Although the theory and ideas of the West cannot be explained, these are undeniable facts.China has achieved high -speed growth and rapid rise by reform and opening up, and the current system also shows sufficient ability to adjust.In the foreseeable future, China's National Games will continue to rise alone with inertia, which can be said to have almost no suspense.
Looking at the United States, although the two parties, even to varying degrees of the people, are quite consistent with the attitude towards China and have a taste of enemies.In terms of aspects, as always, there is no sign of joint force.Without a large -scale system reform to eliminate accumulation and update mechanisms, the national movement in the United States cannot have a fundamental change.The consensus required for this reform is almost impossible to produce in the case of social tearing and politics to two extreme development.It can be said that in the foreseeable future, the national strength of the United States will continue to decline due to internal consumption.
Keeping communication will have benefits
China's national rejuvenation requires it to achieve excellent in all aspects and industries.China should open markets like the United States at its peak. Only by abandoning protectionism and fulfilling market competition, China can truly climb to the peak of the world.The huge and open market after World War II is the basis of the soft power of the United States, and China must also develop such soft power.Now American protectionism is looking up because it has lost many competitiveness. It is going downhill, and the rise of China must send a confident signal.Open the market all over the world, so as to strengthen the interests of various countries, it is also an effective strategy to shatter the New Cold War.
In the former Soviet Union and the Mao Zedong era, China had the strategic intention of transforming the world with its own ideology, so it was not as powerful as the capitalist world.As long as China no longer generates such ambitions, it will never have a reason to be a great power like the United States and leading the world in many aspects.As long as there are exchanges, there will be benefits. This is the fundamental lesson that China has caused backwardness and beating due to a closed lock country in 500 years.The United States will be aggressive and even deceived, but this is a lot of inside.In the history of the relationship between the two countries in the past 40 years, the United States' suppression or even humiliation of China has never been interrupted, but China has still received huge benefits from China -US exchanges.Without such contradictions and frustrations, China will never achieve its current achievements.
China and the United States are the dispute between the National Games, but the dispute between the National Games may not necessarily necessarily be inevitableYou die, because the fate of the two is connected.Trump's trade war is just the beginning, and nationalist moods will continue to rise on both sides of the Pacific. A considerable part of the two countries will treat each other as a deadly enemy.It can be expected that for a long time in the future, the remarks and actions of some American politicians will make many Chinese people feel very uncomfortable and angry.However, decision makers should avoid being controlled by populism, and the staggered of the National Games will naturally solve this complex.
We must pay close attention to the established goals and work tirelessly, even if you make some unpopular and even scolding decisions.It is necessary for China to fight back the suppression of the United States, but the purpose of counterattack is not to defeat the US emperor, because the United States still plays an irreplaceable role in supporting this world order that benefits China.This role has been greatly reduced. After defeating the US emperor, China will find more trouble and miss the United States.
The key to winning China is not to win the trade war, but to ensure that the national strength continues to rise.This includes the total economic volume to catch up and surpass the United States on schedule. The economic structure has been adjusted and upgraded in a timely manner, science and technology entered the world's advanced ranks, and the vitality and innovation capabilities of economic and socially reached the level of general recognition and even envy.To achieve these goals, China requires full attention, can be flexed and stretched, bears humiliation, and cannot sacrifice long -term development opportunities for the self -esteem of being hurt for a while.
Even a superpowers such as the United States have to bear to swallow their voices and adopt realistic practices to avoid further damage to national interests.For example, Iranianmen in 1985, the Buruta Camp explosion in 1983, and the fall of the Black Eagle helicopter in Somalia in 1993, the United States chose to shrink.In many people's eyes, the United States is shameful, but it is actually a strong, confident and mature manifestation.As a rising superpower, and thinking about centuries of national shame, China is just the most vulnerable to injury in this regard, and under impulses to make disruptive mistakes.
(The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
