Zhao Sensin: Only after leaving China will find that there is no such good labor group in the world.With the efforts of these people, it is made of affordable and beautiful Chinese manufacturing.
Since July last year, in the context of the Sino -US trade war, the United States has successively introduced several rounds of tariffs on Chinese -American transit products. As of May 10 this year, 250 billion yuan in U.S. goods has been levied 25%Of tariffs, accounting for more than half of China's exports to the United States in 2018, and 10%of China's total exports of US $ 2.48 trillion in 2018. Therefore, the impact of US tariff increase measures is very large.These manufacturing companies provide services related to services.
25%of tariffs are difficult to digest and bear the outlook manufacturing industry that has been suffering from cost increases and thin profits for many years. As a result, some companies choose to transfer production capacity overseas to avoid rising tariffs on US tariffs on the U.S. US tariffs.Impact.However, under the appearance of low tariffs and low cost, overseas factories need to conduct more comprehensive considerations.
Southeast Asia is already overwhelmed
At present, due to geographical approach and low cost, Southeast Asian countries are the main destinations for Chinese enterprises to transfer production capacity.Except for Singapore, which costs too high and the Brunei with oil and gas as the economy, eight other Southeast Asian countries have undertaken industrial transfer from China to varying degrees.In fact, this process began ten years ago, but it has been tepid. The Sino -US trade war has forced a large number of Chinese companies to go out. The industrial parks in Southeast Asia have been bleak for many years.The endless stream of Chinese entrepreneurs, the rent and factory rent of the park have also risen, one price a day.Among the eight countries in Southeast Asia, Vietnam and Cambodia have the highest popularity, and Vietnam is considered the largest winner in the Sino -US trade war.The popularity of Thailand and Indonesia is followed by Myanmar, Malaysia, Laos, and the Philippines.
The common advantage of these countries is that the population is young, and young people under the age of 30 accounted for more than 50%of the total population; the labor force is cheap, the minimum wages are generally below 200 US dollars, and Myanmar is as low as 6-700 yuan.2400 yuan is lower than the actual salary level in the coastal areas in China; in addition, these countries either signed a free trade agreement with the United States, the European Union, and Japan, or they are taken care of by the inclusive system because of the low level of economic development.Commodity tariffs in major markets such as Japan are low or zero tariffs.For example, Vietnam joined CPTPP and signed a free trade agreement with the EU; Cambodia was taken care of by inclusive systems, and most of the products exported to the United States, the European Union and Japan were zero tariffs.
However, the disadvantages of these countries are also obvious. First of all, the supply chain is incomplete, and most raw materials should be imported from China.Southeast Asia's clothing foundry has been done for many years, and there is a certain scale. 7 Chengdu exported goods in Cambodia is clothing.But even so, clothing fabrics and accessories still need to be transported from China.Therefore, Southeast Asia is more suitable for those industries with short supply chains, such as clothing and home products, which are relatively easy to equipped with raw materials, not suitable for industries such as electronics and other long supply chains.This can also explain why many electronic companies pile up in northern Vietnam MDash; MDASH; for the convenience of raw materials, they are transported through land through Shenzhen Huaqiangbei.
Secondly, the quality of labor and hard work is not as good as China.Although the labor force in Southeast Asia is cheaper than China, many workers are washing their feet to the field. They have not been trained at all. In addition, the education level is generally limited, resulting in 7 or 80 % of Chinese workers at most.Moreover, workers in Southeast Asia are generally unwilling to work overtime. It is a limit to 2 hours of overtime and 2 hours a day. If you give money, you do n’t add money.In this comprehensive compatibility, the labor cost advantage in Southeast Asia is not as significant.In addition, due to the influx of Chinese companies, in the local area of Vietnam and Cambodia, there have been insufficient labor and soaring wages.According to this trend, the cost advantage of Vietnam and Cambodia will soon be exhausted.
Therefore, you will find that there is no such good labor group in the world if you leave China.In the past few decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese migrant workers have sacrificed their affection, leaving their hometown to work in the coastal areas, living in a collective dormitory without privacy and dignity, holding a meager salary, repeated simple and boring physical labor day after day.Overtime for a long time is commonplace, and sometimes legitimate rights and interests are not guaranteed.With the efforts of these people, it is made of affordable and beautiful Chinese manufacturing.It was also used to be used to such a good worker. The Chinese boss arrived overseas and was generally uncomfortable with foreign workers who refused to work overtime and still strike.
Third, the infrastructure of Southeast Asia is not comparable to China.The dense and processing capabilities of infrastructure such as highways, railways, airports, ports, etc. in China's coastal areas, Southeast Asian countries are at all.The distance that can be reached in China in China is likely to take half a day in Southeast Asia.Nowadays, a large number of Chinese manufacturing has poured into Southeast Asia, which has caused the backlog of goods in some ports.There are still some countries that have power missing.It can be said that the current infrastructure status of Southeast Asia is not enough to support the arrival of a large number of Chinese manufacturing.
Fourth, the political situation of some countries is unstable and has a delicate relations with China.For example, Vietnam, in May 2014, has occurred in the South China Sea dispute against Chinese companies, and many Chinese companies such as the United States Plant have been impacted; Indonesia's Chinese exclusion has a well -known history, and has recently occurred in 1998.Recently, the Chinese have also been affected due to riots in the presidential election dispute.There was also an incident of Jakarta Mayor Zhong Wanxue. He was a Chinese Christian who quoted a sentence of the Gulan Sutra in the speech of the mayor of Jakarta. He was uploaded to the social media after malicious editing, and accused Zhong Wanxue of attacking Islam.Zhong Wanxue was sentenced to 20 months, and it was released shortly ago.
Fifth, due to the general degree of development in Southeast Asian countries lower than China, there are many loopholes in internal governance, which has attracted many Chinese people there to carry out illegal activities, which has tarnished the image of the Chinese people, and also caused local dissatisfaction.The most typical is the port of Sihanouk, Cambodia, where a large number of Chinese people engaged in telecommunications fraud, online gambling and other activities, which pushed up land prices and costs.Where is the direction?How to resolve the guidance?The Chinese must consider.In the port of Sihanouk, there is actually the largest special economic zone in Cambodia operated by Chinese people, but it is little known that its limelight has been stamped by gambling, telecommunications fraud and various illegal activities.
Is it possible to set up a factory in the United States?
In addition to Southeast Asia, Africa, India, and the United States are also a place where Chinese manufacturing transfer capacity is often mentioned.Among them, the United States has the best conditions, and water, electricity, and natural gas are much cheaper than domestic. For exampleIn recent years, some state investment promotion has also been very strong, and it will have considerable tax reduction and exemption when reaching a certain number of employees.For example, in July 2017, Foxconn announced that in four years, the US Wisconsin invested 10 billion US dollars to build the most advanced LCD panel factory to create up to 13,000 jobs for the local area.Duty -free and subsidy incentives for the dollar.
However, the labor cost of the United States is much more expensive than China. At present, the minimum wages in the United States are generally around $ 10 per hour. In this way, the monthly salary of workers must be more than 2,000 US dollars, at least 4 times that of domestic coastal areas.And due to the high degree of development of the service industry, it is difficult for manufacturing to hire people.What is even more troublesome is that the industrialization of industrialization has led to the incomplete industrial chain in the United States before.Recently, Apple has set up factories in Texas, USA, and found that even screws need to be transported from China.Therefore, beautyThe country is suitable for manufacturing companies with high degree of automation, small use, large energy consumption, and short supply chain.Fuden glass and boulder glass fibers set up factories in the United States, based on these reasons.
Africa is also often mentioned by the real -mentioned capacity transfer, but the situation in Africa is very different, and it is difficult to generalize.There are countries that are quite advanced in the global business environment rankings, and there are also chaos in which the lawsuit is poor and must bring bodyguards when they go out.And most African countries are in different positions in the middle. Their common advantages are that they are close to the United States and Europe. They are generally taken care of by tariffs. If they do export, they have advantages in shipping and tariffs.The industrial foundation is weak, and the domestic demand market has great development potential.At the same time, the disadvantage is also obvious: although there are many people, the degree of education is low, the consciousness of discipline and hard work and hard work; the infrastructure such as transportation is backward, corruption rampant, power shortage, and the supply chain is incomplete.These are difficult to improve in the short term.
India, like China, has a large population, sufficient labor, and broad markets. Therefore, it is considered to be a new world factory in China, but the ideal is full and the reality is very skinny.In fact, most people in India are just superficial phenomena. Because the surname system and women's status are low, most people cannot go out to work freely at all.The illiterate rate is above 30%. In this way, there are not many really high -quality industrial workers.In addition, there are almost a lot of issues such as supply chain, infrastructure, corruption, market inconsistency, and electricity shortage of Southeast Asia and Africa.Moreover, since June last year, the trade war broke out between the United States and India. The two sides have increased tariffs on each other. The situation is similar to that of the Sino -US trade war. Recently, the United States has canceled an inclusive tariff treatment to India.These are doomed to India cannot become a world factory, nor can it be an important destination for the industrial transfer of Chinese enterprises.
Let domestic demand support Made in China
It can be seen through the above analysis that no place in the world has the ability to undertake the comprehensive transfer of Chinese manufacturing.The advantages of China are still obvious: complete industrial chain, high -quality infrastructure, workers with hard work, hard work, and high -quality and cost -effectiveness, the government's strong businessist tendency and enthusiasm for attracting investment in China Merchants.This will eventually cause the manufacturing of China to differentiate: part of the establishment of factories in overseas factories to avoid tariffs and costs, or export or focus on the local market; some stay in the country to open up the domestic domestic demand market; there are also some upgrades to the high -end of the industrial chain, and they are facing the industry chain.High tariffs continue from China to the United States and other developed markets, but the scale will decrease.
What is important is the latter two: a large number of enterprises want to transfer production capacity, one important reason is that the United States is the largest buyer in China. In order to lose this important market, companies must go to overseas factories.There are only 3.00 million people in the United States, 1.3 billion people in China, and 1.3 billion domestic demand can fully support high -quality Chinese manufacturing.However, it has been boiled for many years, but it has always been ineffective; it is also difficult to change from exports to domestic sales.The main obstacles of this include: lack of entrepreneurial security, uncertainty of macro environment, squeezing of real estate on consumption, prevalence of plagiarism and imitation, high circulation costs, high rent, and so on.
These are also obstacles to the transformation and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing.Transformation and upgrading are not forced to complete the enterprise, nor is it necessary to succeed.There is no series of deep -seated reforms. After the production capacity is transferred, the shrinking and hollow of China is the most worrying.
(This article only represents the author's own point of view. The author is the founder of the world's sensitivity of overseas investment consulting agencies.
