Zhou Hao: There are conduction and contagious between financial markets. Analysis from a single event often loses global grasp; in financial markets, credit, confidence and expectations are important, which is also the bottom line.
Along with the information of the People's Bank of China considering letting the RMB 7. The news that China may sell US debt and Alibaba's consideration in Hong Kong's IPO again, so that market analysts tend to believe that China and the United States have continued to expand from trade and technology to the financial sector.More concerns, but as I have been emphasizing before, as the strength between China and the United States is getting closer, the friction between China and the United States is unavoidable, but it is also because there are various interests between China and the United States.The friction between the two countries will not be upgraded unlimited.In the financial field, friction will not bring any substantial benefits to both countries, but it may have a devastating impact on both countries.Basically, due to the infectious and high integration of the financial market, the possibility of financial warfare in China and the United States is extremely low.
Recent news about the friction between China and the United States in the financial field (or rumors) includes a few of them. The first is that China may depreciate the RMB to cope with the impact of tariffs.7's concerns are almost ubiquitous. Some people have proposed that there is a management break. Some people worry that the central bank's determination to protect 7 in the marginal decline. In general, the market shows extremely unstable emotions.Although officials at all levels of the central bank stated that the renminbi will remain stable, the level of scholars shows questioning whether it is meaningful.
Such an emotional fluctuations actually show that the market's tension and helplessness of the upgrading of the Sino -US trade dispute. In this kind of wind and crane environment, once the RMB breaks 7, the panic may be far more than the so -called things.Imagination.After the stock market was broken in that year, the market continued to question the original intention of the policy and the ability to maintain stability in the regulatory level. In fact, it was the reality of the policy of declining the policy. In general, it was necessary to reverse the opposite policy.From a certain perspective, the market that has been formed as soon as it is broken, once it is broken, it may cause serious short -term market confidence to collapse. Considering the important influence of the Chinese economy in Asia and the world, once the RMB is out of control, it will also be on this area and this area and this area and this area andThe global financial market has a serious impact.
Take a step back, even if China intends to hedge the tariff effect by depreciating the renminbi, will the United States ignore it?The depreciation of management has become an indefinite depreciation.Such a situation is also reflected in the one -time reform of 2015.
Another rumor is that China will sell US Treasury bonds as a means of revenge. On the surface, this seems to be reasonable.China is one of the largest single -one U.S. debt holdings in the world. Official statistics of China holding at least $ 1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. If you choose to sell US Treasury bonds, it will inevitably bring a huge turbulence in the US financial market.Trump's economic policy brings a salary effect.
On the surface, this seems to be quite logical, but in fact, as one of the most secure and liquid assets in the financial market, US Treasury bonds will naturally sell large -scale US Treasury bonds and will affect China's financial stability and financial security.The market will worry about whether China has the ability to maintain its country's financial stability within a long and long period of time.On the other hand, after China sells U.S. Treasury bonds, it is impossible to put US dollar cash in their hands. It is necessary to choose to purchase national debt or other assets of other countries as a substitute. In this process, it is necessary to throw out the US dollar to buy euro or yen.Instead, this will bring the dollar depreciation of MDash; mdash; this is not the wishes of Trump's vulnerable dollars?Therefore, selling U.S. bonds is not much beneficial to itself, and even helping the opponent to realize their wishes, which is actually a faint trick.
Next, SMIC's recent delisting from the US motherboard and Alibaba's consideration to the Hong Kong market financing will allow companies to feel the background of Chinese -funded backgrounds may choose to reduce their dependence on the US capital market and manage trade frictions that may bringThe impact.If the interpretation of such events only stops there, the author thinks it is reasonable.However, the market has begun to speculate that the possibility of the two countries will further explode in the future.For example, the United States may prohibit Chinese companies from listing in the United States in the future.It is true that this possibility of course exists, but fundamentally, the capital market needs high -quality companies to maintain vitality. Companies like Alibaba have shown that in the past few decades, they have shown that they have a strong macro environment and micro -market in the past decades.Adaptability to allow such companies to leave the US financial market is definitely a huge loss in the US capital market.
In addition, Chinese companies choose to list in the non -US market, which also means that U.S. -funded underwriting institutions are likely to be unable to obtain underwriting qualifications.At the same time, the largest asset holder in the stock market is a large asset management company, and there are almost one of the US asset management giants.And asset management companies have large -scale stock positions in various regions around the world. At the same time, a large number of positions are realized through passive ETF transactions, which also means that as long as the target of Chinese listed companies is sufficient (the facts are indeed), the assets are then assets, so the assets then assets, then the assets areThe management company's holding will inevitably passively hold a large -scale listed enterprise with the Chinese market as the source of income.From this perspective, where Alibaba's listing has a similar impact on the global financial system. Its large -scale volume and the business model of leading competitors have led to its influence on the stock market and the whole body.Essence
Another point of attention is that Chinese stocks are generally implemented in the United States through the VIE structure. In fact, this structure means that Chinese companies listed in the United States are actually the shadow of Chinese assets. The legal arrangements behind them are realized.The foundation of this listing structure, but because China still has a considerable degree of capital control and the differences in the legal system itself, it is difficult for Chinese stocks to be listed in the United States to be equivalent to their theoretically corresponding assets in China.To achieve such a unique model is a consensus behind, that is, under normal circumstances, shareholders, management, and regulators will try their best to protect the reasonable and legitimate operations of the enterprise.However, such a consensus may also be fragile under extreme circumstances, and once such a consensus does not exist, its impact on the financial market will be fatal.Basically, the credit system is the cornerstone of the financial market. Excessive political intervention will cause the credit system to be challenged. From this perspective, the cornerstone of the financial market rashly leveraging the financial market may be devastating.
Through the above analysis, we can roughly come to two conclusions. First, there are conduction and infectiousness between the financial markets. If the light analysis from a single event, we often lose the overall understanding of things; secondIn the financial market, credit, confidence and expectations are crucial. This is also the bottom line of the financial market and financial system. It challenges the bottom line of the financial market and often ignits.The feedback from the financial market is often more direct and rude, and a policy has not yet landed, and its feedback has regretted many policy decision makers.It is precisely because of this simple and rude that the financial war is likely to have not yet started. German commercial bank Asia senior economist Zhou Hao
