Zhang Yantong: In the 5G era, it is worth paying more attention to the technical infrastructure composed of 5G technology and artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, AR and other technical matrix, as well as industrial clusters above this.
The development of China's 5G industry has led another son.Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officials first revealed that the news of the 5G commercial license will soon be issued.One stone stirred up thousands of waves.5G commercial opening, there is still a certain distance to mature when the commercial maturity, you need to pay considerable costs and efforts.However, the future blue ocean of the industry has already appeared, and the future is expected.
For the first time in China, I have the first opportunity to explore high -tech blue oceans
5G is an important infrastructure of the digital economy and an important carrier of the incremental economy.In terms of technical advantages, the low latency, high reliability, and high density of 5G technology can realize the interconnection of all things.It is reflected in the business model, 5G breaks through the bottleneck that the previous mobile communication technology can only meet the needs of consumers. In addition to the consumption of 5G electronic terminals and products, various industrial -level needs have also emerged widely.To put it simply, the difference between 5G technology and previous technologies is that it can be achieved in the past.The most prominent example is the Internet of Things.As early as the development of 3G technology, the Internet of Things was regarded as an important industrial -level application scenario.
But in the past ten years, the development of the Internet of Things is relatively slow.The main reason is that 3G and 4G technologies cannot meet the requirements of wide coverage, deep coverage, low power consumption, large connection, and low cost of the Internet of Things network.The result of the interconnection of all things is that everything is moving.A large amount of data can be generated and saved all over the weather. With the data network based on 5G technology, technologies such as IT cloudization, edge computing, and artificial intelligence make the overall economic interaction stronger.
Smart car networking is a complete technological use innovation.On the one hand, smart cars are equipped with advanced sensors, controllers, operators, and powerful intelligent systems. On the other hand, terminal vehicles are connected with highway networks and control personnel through 5G technology to achieve human -vehicle interconnection, vehicle interconnection, vehicle interconnection, vehicle, vehicle interconnection, vehicle interconnection, vehicle interconnection, vehicle interminkRoad interconnection.Such a set of overall economic forms based on 5G technology can form a new supply market, and user needs can be updated.This is the true meaning of the high -tech blue ocean market.
Why is the news that the 5G commercial license is about to be issued is more notable than the previous communication licenses?In addition to the highlights of the 5G industry in the Sino -US trade war, China has the first opportunity to explore the blue ocean market in the field of high -quality economic development.Thirty years ago.In 1994, the then US President Clinton proposed to build a highway for information. The essence was to build information technology infrastructure. The purpose was to prepare for the advent of the new information age.After that, the rapid development of the Internet industry in the world is all constructed on the technology and concept revolution provided by this information infrastructure.
From Internet technology to China, to the development of each generation of mobile communication technology, China is sharing the technical dividend brought by the high -tech overflow effect.But before 5G, 3G and 4G technology were mature in other countries. Our communication infrastructure has always been chasing the footsteps of others.This has caused a certain degree of innovation paths to a certain extent, that is, the innovation methods rely on high -quality development are not enough.
For example, in recent years, my country ’s mobile Internet has developed rapidly, and it has gradually begun to achieve innovation advantages in many fields including video social networking. However, such advantages are often limited to business model innovation, and lack of hardcore innovation with technological development.To deepen, the user needs at this stage have faced bottlenecks.A good example is that the competition for the entrance of Internet traffic is becoming increasingly fierce.This competition not only reflects the problem of commercial morals, but also reflects whether the growth model is sustainable.In the future, the incremental development of high -quality economy appeals to hardcore innovation based on 5G technology, so as to drive new demand with new supply.The competitive advantage of 5G allows my country to be in a leading position during the construction of communication technology infrastructure for the first time.
The 5G technical standards have reduced the cost of upgrading the technical solution, which is conducive to the expansion of the industrial scale.At the same time, the more 5G, the more fast and mature commercial use, the more the advantages of the large data volume and the use of the digital economy, the ultimately bring huge economic development potential.
Catalytic 5G industry competition pattern
In the past, licenses were issued at the end of the year.This year, the signal of 5G licenses was released in the middle of the year, which may indicate that the preparation of the market exceeded expectations. Commercial conditions have matured, that is, upstream equipment manufacturers have the conditions to promote 5G networks, which means that a large number of terminal devices can be accessible to the Internet without obstacles to the Internet.Enjoy 5G services.Beginning at the end of last year, the three major operators have begun to deploy 5G base stations in full swing, and have chosen to promote construction with the goal of independent networking (SA).Generally speaking, there is a process of trial commercial use from the distribution license to the formal commercial use.Generally speaking, the trial commercial use of technology and business considerations.Technically, through the reliability of the trial commercial inspection group network, to detect whether there is a situation of design defects or poor resource allocation, especially the effectiveness of connecting with the terminal;, To determine a more suitable business solution.Therefore, after the issuance of 5G licenses can be expected, different policies for trial commercial and comprehensive commercial use will be available.
Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei once led the distribution of 4G licenses.At that time, the strategy adopted was to gradually improve the commercial conditions in pilot cities, and they were not rushed to quickly volume and bloom on all sides.This strategy is mainly for two points.The first point is to meet the laws of the consumer side of the 4G network service.The pilot cities have gathered the largest percentage of 4G potential users, and the improvement of commercial conditions for pilot cities will help the real use of 4G networks.Secondly, there were two sets of 4G technical standards at that time. In order to meet the technical parallelism of the two sets of solutions, it was also necessary to improve the mixed network in the pilot.For 5G, the policy will be different. The 5G scheme is led by the Chinese company. The approach of large -scale promotion and loading in the country is more in line with the policy intention MDASH; MDASH;The goal is to basically build a 5G basic network.
In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's official micro -issues this week also highlighted another policy orientation MDash; MDash; encouraged the open cooperation of the industry.The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized that the 5G standard is the unified international standard Hellip; hellip; as always, it welcomes domestic and foreign companies to actively participate in my country's 5G network construction and application promotion, as always, and share the results of my country's 5G development.This is another embodiment of the important thinking of future policy.my country can establish a competitive advantage in the 5G industry. Thanks to the leading advantage of long -term adherence to independent innovation, it is inseparable from international open cooperation from the technical test stage.In the 5G era, opening competition and win -win symbiosis have always been a benign competitive form.
Encouraging Chinese and foreign companies to participate in 5G construction and application promotion can help the country's strategic positioning of the 5G industry, and it can also enable more industrial entities to enter the blue ocean market led by China.
So the question follows, who will 5G licenses be issued to?First of all, there is no controversy that the three major operators will get 5G licenses.At present, China Mobile is launched in 17 cities to launch a 5G scale test and demonstration project, and finally promote the target network based on independent networking; China Unicom also plans to complete the establishment of 5G networks in 16 cities this year, as well as 5G terminal non -independent groupsNetwork (NSA) trial commercial use in 2020; China Telecom has also begun to achieve 4G/5G network synergy in 6 pilot cities across the country.In addition, the 4G and Internet eras are gradually marginalized by radio and television networks.
The radio and television network has a large number of natural terminals, which can achieve 5G network access. In addition, in the context of the development of the State Grid integration, video clouds and mergeThe development of new business forms such as the media also requires the use of 5G networks to achieve cloud, tube, and end integration construction.The radio and television network actually has substantial movements.China Radio and Television Group has mentioned in the 5G industry development action plan of many provinces, and has clearly made demonstration projects for the provinces' key support.
In addition, will the head Internet company have a place in the 5G industry?From the mixed reform of China Unicom in 2017, you can see your ideas.China Unicom will share advantages with Internet companies to expand the market.In the past few years, many Internet companies have obtained a virtual operating banking license, becoming a partner of telecommunications users, improving market efficiency and sharing market income.On the occasion of 5G commercial use, these virtual operators will more frequently introduce their own resources, including business scenarios, technical capabilities, user traffic, etc. to introduce cooperation.In the future, it can be expected that major Internet companies will cooperate with the radio and television groups that may obtain 5G licenses to supplement the shortcomings of the flow, technology, and scenes of the radio and electricity group.
Pioneers need to pay a lot of industry costs
From the perspective of 3G and 4G commercialization, technology popularization to the formation of industrial value requires many efforts.For example, as early as 2000, Japan issued 3G licenses by bidding.But for four consecutive years, 3G networks have not developed much.It was not until 2004 that 3G gradually came out of the low valley in the early stages of development.The number of 3G mobile phones in Japan reached about 100 million, exceeding 80 % of the number of mobile communication users.The same problem faces the same problem when promoting 3G and 4G networks in China.For example, although China Mobile has invested huge investment during the 4G networking process, and its market share has accounted for more than 90%, it has been tepid in 4G users since the end of 2013 at the end of 2013.
In the following 10 months, China's 4G network penetration rate increased from 0%to 80%.Compared with the international penetration time of 4G, MDASH; mdash; it costs about 6 years from commercial to 80%.This fully illustrates that the industry paid by pioneers is huge.In the process of promoting 5G networks in my country, there are some problems that affect market penetration.
First, the consumer -side user has low awareness.Although the 5G network has made a very good national education through the Sino -US trade war, most users are different about the 5G network and 4G network, and what the 5G network can do is still quite unknown.When it was upgraded from 3G to 4G at that time, someone once proposed that the upgrade of 2G to 3G was accompanied by the emergence of smartphones.Users use this type of smart terminal to recognize the fast and convenient of 3G networks; and 4G is only an improvement of 3G network speed.There are no technologies such as mobile high -definition conferences, mobile high -definition video surveillance, mobile high -definition video demand, and portable viewing technology. 5G is also useless as efficient communication technology.
Second, how the consumer and industrial network tariffs are priced unknown.After 5G network networking, how to determine the network tariffs of operators directly determines the consumption habits of end users.For consumer -end users, how to attract them at a suitable price to become new users of 5G networks, and retain them requires the focus of the operator to consider.For industrial -end users, the Internet of Things with 5G technology needs to effectively achieve the goals of its Internet of Things, and still retain profits for its downstream.These two issues have never been encountered before, and the operator also needs to find reasonable pricing strategies through trial commercial discovery.
Third, the consumer side is lagging behind.Although the 5G network has a huge effect on the industrial end, it takes longer for the construction, network access, commissioning, and commercial use of the Internet of Things.The official commercial use of the consumer side is probably a year to one and a half after obtaining the license; the official commercial use of the industrial end will be longer than this time.Therefore, the early penetration of the 5G network needs to be benefited from the construction of the consumer.At present, many of the 5G scenes of the consumer side have actually been proposed in the 4G era. For example, 5G combined with 4K cameras to realize the real -time transmission of news, and 5G smart routers to achieve the core control of smart homes.How to innovate downstream services and the use of killer levels need to be observed further.
5G+: 5G commercial industrial cluster
The technical competition in the 5G era is the competition of technical clusters; the competition in industrial use is the competition of industrial clusters.In the 5G era, it should be more concerned about the technical infrastructure of 5G technology and artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and AR technology matrix, and the industrial cluster generated above this.First, the first year of 5G business will drive the middle and upstream industries of the industry to enter the previous cycle. Industry related to 5G base stations and terminal equipment will usher in an outbreak. This is the most direct industrial cluster for 5G commercial use.Second, more importantly is the development of 5G+industrial clusters.In the consumption side, in addition to streaming media, animation, short videos, online games and other fields, it will bring about a leap in quality and changes in certain needs, and there will also be updating and upgrading needs of cloud storage, as well as medical, finance, safety, travel aspectsAll kinds of new supply and demand.
On the industrial end, the use of intelligent manufacturing, smart vehicle networking, and edge computing will be accelerated, which will change the changes in a larger industry with these industries as the core.
In recent years, we have ushered in the first year of the development of many technological development.In 2019, with the distribution of commercial licenses, the future imagination space of 5G technology is huge.The more we need to maintain a certain reason, the more we need to maintain the law of the development of technology, so as to maximize the benefits of technological development.Some industry experts once cited such an example.When the 5G technology standard is formulated, the experts set the technical standard for vehicle communication at the requirements required by the low latency and high reliable communication requirements required by the International Telecommunications Alliance (ITU): the delay at 500 kilometers speed does not exceed 1 milliseconds, and the peak rate rateUp to 20GPBS.According to this requirement, under 5G technology, millions of equipment, including cars, can access at the same time.This may be the high -quality high -tech scene.
(This article only represents the author's own point of view.
