Ye Shengzhou: Some new traces emerged from the trade war.Generally speaking, the two sides did not lose their rationality. They were all thunderous and small rain.
Since the sudden upgrade of the Sino -US trade war on May 6, the two sides attacked me to defend, see the tricks, and derived a series of tactics and campaigns such as scientific and technological warfare, financial war, psychological warfare, long -lasting war, acupoint war, public opinion warfare, and intrigue corners.The climax is over, and there are some new trends and new trends.In general, the two sides did not lose their rationality. They were all thunderous and small rain. They shouted, and they were cautious.
The United States: The group cannon bombard, the quasi -star is biased
──While pressure is further upgraded.First, the trade war expands to the vertical.The U.S. Trade Representative Office has scheduled to hold a hearing of 25%tariffs on the remaining $ 300 billion of Chinese goods on June 17.Secondly, the scientific and technological warfare spread rapidly.Following the blockade of ZTE in 2018, the United States included Huawei and its subsidiaries in the export control entity list, and used national forces to block it, trying to defeat the pioneers of the 5G industry in China and the world.Third, prepare grain for financial combat.On May 28, the US Ministry of Finance issued a half -year report that China did not list China as a exchange rate manipulator, but the US Department of Commerce announced five days ago that it intends to impose anti -subsidy taxes on the country's export of the US dollar to the US dollar to subsidize exports.The exchange rate is one of the important parts of the Sino -US trade negotiation. The United States has repeatedly demanded that China maintains the exchange rate stability. Now the public threat will be depreciated by increasing tariffs to deal with the RMB.
──The military has become the new cockpit stone of Sino -US relations.In the 40 years of reform and opening up in China, economic and trade has been the cockpit stone and propeller of Sino -US relations, and it seems to have become history.In the future, China and the United States continue to friction in 20-30 years, and trade and technology will be the first.If the military cannot become a new cockpit stone and stabilizer of the two countries, there is no preparation worldwide.In any case, both nuclear powers need to avoid full -time warfare, which is both responsible for the lives of countless people and responsible for the peace and security of the world.Fortunately, the senior management of the military world has reached a tacit understanding.
On May 29, the US Army's Federation Chairman Dunford released the first Indo -Pacific Strategic Report for the Pentae La Dialogue during the Penta -La Dialogue.action.On June 1, Shao Yuanming, deputy chief of staff of the Ministry of Staff of China, commented on the 20 -minute talks of the 20 -minute talks of the Sino -US defense chief at the incense meeting the day before. It is positive and constructive.The relationship between the two armies is very important.
Hellip; hellip; control differences and risks, and strive to promote the relationship between the two countries to become a stabilizer of the relationship between the two countries.
──The quasi -star is blurred and rhythm is disordered.The United States finally awakened and realized that in the right time, correct fields and correct opponents, the firepower was strong enough and was not focused.For example, Trump suddenly enlarged the move on May 30, and decided to impose a 5%tariff on all Mexican -American products from June 10. The White House then stated that the tariffs will be increased to 25%according to the steps, and it has been maintained to illegal immigrants to illegal immigrants.No longer enter the United States through Mexico.For another example, on June 1, the White House announced that starting on June 5th, it ended India's inclusive treatment, and about $ 5.6 billion in Indian products no longer enjoy zero tariffs.For another example, the United States dispatched aircraft carriers and increased troops, deterred in Iran, jurisdiction over the domestic legal arms, and restricted Iranian oil exports.
These actions have scattered the firepower of the United States, reduced China's pressure, and added more understanding and support to China's trade war.On May 30, Merkel delivered a speech at the graduation ceremony of Harvard University, and he did not name Trump's protectionism and isolationism, and called for demolition of ignorant and narrow heart walls.
──Puctant release of ease information.First, Trump's loose tone, Huawei issues can be used as part of the content and trade agreement between China and the United States.In his eyes, everything can be traded, so Huawei is regarded as an important bargaining chip and bait of the trade war, and the right -wing of the United States is even more concerned about core competitiveness and the pulse of the National Games.Bannon deserves to be a very right -wing godfather and a strategic master. He claims that the sealing of Huawei's administrative order is ten times more important than reaching a trade agreement.Second, the US Trade Representative Office announced on May 31 that the implementation time of 10%of the 10%tariffs scheduled for $ 200 billion in Chinese goods was extended from June 1 to June 15.Third, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin claims that the 300 billion US dollars of Chinese goods will take a 25%tariff process for 30-45 days, suggesting that it will not be executed quickly.There is an exemption mechanism even if it is executed.
Fourth, the G20 Finance Minister Conference was held in Fukuoka, Japan from June 7th to 9th. Senior White House adviser Convey said that President Trump may instruct Mnuchin who attended the meeting to consult with Chinese officials.
──The two sides do not define the trade war.This is a very interesting phenomenon. The two sides opened the posture of fighting hard and fighting. The countries, international organizations, and media generally believed that they were the trade war, but the two protagonists still did not admit it straightforward.On June 1, the United States agent to prevent Changsha Nahan in the Xianghui and said that I did not see the trade war.Trade negotiations are still continuing, and we are establishing relations with the Chinese military.On June 2nd, the China State Council News Office issued a Chinese position on the Chinese and American economic and trade consultations. The preface of the U.S. government unilaterally sponsored the Sino -US economic and trade friction.Do not recognize the trade war.
China: Get warm first and then hard, first suppress and then Yang
──It psychological warfare is more skilled.At the beginning of the US Department of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and even the Customs Tariff Committee of the State Council's Customs Council Commission on May 6, the US Department of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and even the State Council were obviously a position of cooling, fire saving, and fire extinguishing.On May 9th, Liu He visited the United States for the 11th round of consultations and returned empty -handed, but took a letter to the Chinese head of state, and Trump praised him.On January 31, Liu He visited the United States to successfully end the 9th round of consultations and also brought a letter to the Chinese head.When Trump met with Liu in the oval office, he showed off the translation to read the letter on the spot.Liu He praised Trump in person to govern American economic prosperity. You can be said to be polite, and it can be said to be a compliment to see people.
This is right. For the country's interests, the body is softer, and the golf and sumo diplomacy of Shinzo Abe are softer.In May and December 2018, the Chinese side reached an agreement too much. The two were too much and too fast. The United States was considered as fat sheep to slaughter. Two times, they were reversed, tearing the agreement, and launched a trade war.
China is now slowing down, and no longer bid easily and concessions easily.This is a positive solution. Only the fixed force is more firm, the fighting spirit is fierce, and the counterattack is fierce. The probability of reaching the agreement is greater, and the concession is relatively smaller.Only when the United States hurts first, will the sincere signing agreement be reduced.
── Deployment to fight for a long time.With Trump signed an administrative order to block Huawei's boundaries on May 15, China quickly touched and gave up the speed and ideas.The bullying is too much, and it cannot be retired.For example, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced on May 31 that it would decide to establish an unreliable entity list system, and specific measures will be announced in the near future.This is an anti -chess chess. With his own way, he also controls his body, and forced the individuals, enterprises, associations, and countries to be involved in the trade war to maintain restraint and neutrality, otherwise China will also sanction and retaliate.For another example, the United States has extended tariffs for 15 days, but China is still based on the announcement that retaliatory taxation will be implemented since June 1.In contrast to this, the Chinese side was implemented from 12:01 on August 23, 2018, and deliberately 1 minute later than the United States, emphasizing not to fight the first shot
EssenceFor another example, the United States uses state forces to suppress Chinese enterprises, and China has been forced to use state forces to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, and both sides have risen to the height of national security.On June 1, Huawei Express was sent back to the United States Federal Express to become the first sacrifice and was investigated by China.
──The points of point war are accurate but effective to be tested.The United States' blockade of Chinese technology companies is aggressive, and companies such as DJI, Hikvision, Dahua and other companies may become the next goal.Due to the huge deficit of Sino -US trade, China cannot use a single tariff to compete with the United States. It must be comprehensively adopted by quantitative and quality tools.China National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce have hintedRestriction of rare earth exports as a reserve policy for revenge in the United States.The author predicts that this is likely to be a retaliation method for levying a 25%tariff on the remaining $ 300 billion of Chinese goods as the United States.
However, whether the embargo can become a trump weapon and threatened the United States, there is still doubts.Because: 1. In 1990-2005 China Excessive Export, the strategic reserves of the United States, Japan and South Korea can support 20-40 years; 2. The US rare earth reserves accounted for 10%of the world, which can be self-sufficient. Only China's rare earth is too cheap and polluted.; 3. After the WTO ruling in 2015, China canceled the quota and tariffs of rare earth exports. If the revenge could only block the United States, it is not difficult for the United States to trade or smuggle from the allies to obtain China's rare earth.
──In public opinion war is more losing.The United States is a right -wing official, and the Huagong faction is on the front line of public opinion. It is represented by Pompeo and Littichzer, including Bolton, Navarro, Kurodlo, Shanhan, etc.The front line is represented by the People's Daily, Xinhua News Agency, and CCTV.In recent months, China ’s biggest highlight in the battle of public opinion is undoubtedly CGTN anchor Liu Xin. After Cui Xi, the anchor of the FOX business channel of the right -wing media in the United States.In fluent English, a friendly dialogue with the American people is directly friendly; the other highlight is May 24, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, accepted an interview with Bloomberg Television in the United States.
There are also a lot of defeats. The main problems are: 1. Too much.According to incomplete statistics, in recent months, 9 theories can be rest, 9 theories will fail, 5 decomposition American bullying series, 10 are not series, at least 15 international reviews, etc., all of which are stacking or stacking positions orRepeat, whether it is the quality of the content or the reading experience, how many people insist on the earth insist on all?Second, too hard.Self -claiming to be a ugly face of the US, comprehensive refutation, heartbroken, and piercing the United States to trample on the rules of international trade games.
The problem is that the main audience of the Chinese public opinion war is not domestic, but it should also be attacked, and the American people, enterprises, scholars, associations, and the international community have more recognition.Such hard and rough, domineering, repeated emphasis on the correct China, the United States is wrong, what will happen to the spread?For international audiences, the above comments are probably not as good as Liu Xin's conversation and influence between Liu Xin and Cui Xi.Third, too heavy.
The power of the big country must be worthy of its strength and demeanor.Just leave one Global Times, as the main position of the domestic nationalist emotions. Why do three top central media have been entangled for so long?Fourth, too old.Topics, planning, genre, style, etc. are all old.It is reminiscent of the nine evaluations of the Sino -Soviet war, and when the nine -evaluation organizer Deng Xiaoping and Gorbachev had a discipline, Zeng Zeng led that we did not think that we were right at the time (Deng Xiaoping Selected, Volume 3 No. 3 No. 1P. 294).
Today is the era of new media. Time and words are like gold.Any domestic and foreign events, three consecutive reviews, don't engage in five discussions.The Ministry of Truth may wish to think deeply. The internal and external propaganda must be unified. If the internal and foreign kings are unable to go, it will only make foreign countries question more.
Observation: Can the gold node be reversed?
China ’s active war in recent months, mainly tells the United States' position below: First, willing to continue negotiations and sign an agreement for a break; second, the dignity involved in sovereignty will never give up. For exampleThe inequality treaty never agrees, only to the end, who signed who is Li Hongzhang; 3. Both sides need to concessions. In non -principle issues, the non -principles can make more concessions and need to balance in text expressions.The capital of China and the United States is a strong figure, and they all have the willingness to reach an agreement as soon as possible, but the two sides are insufficient in mutual trust and are watching and worrying.If the G20 Osaka Summit reappears the scene where the Hanoi Special Gold will be scattered, it will be a disaster for China and the United States and the world.There should be a long -term plan to prevent and transition, because the off -war against the trade agreement is in line with the interests of China and the United States, but also the wishes of most countries and international organizations.
─The ministerial officials and central media do not directly attack Trump to popularize his family.The author has always believed that Trump and Putin are a gift from God to China's rise and revival.The power of the two harms is light, and Trump's president is greater than the disadvantages of China.He is a high probability event. China shows enough sincerity and necessary compromises in exchange for relatively stable six years. It is a very cost -effective transaction.Although Trump is so spicy, he has dealt with a good deal, keeps his campaign commitment, pays attention to hard power, and seeks forgotten meaning, showing his vanity, and needs to distinguish it with the United States.Bannon and Komi are more overcast and more refined than Bittan Trump, and more headache.
─ The G20 Osaka Summit is the best gold node.The boss and the second child fire also, smart people often watch to avoid, lack of strength and willingness to mediate, fearing that they offend both sides and ignite the fire.On the evening of May 31, Li Xianlong gave a rational neutral lecture at the opening ceremony of the incense meeting and tried to mediate.On June 2nd, Wei Fenghe praised Li's speech and congratulations during his speech.It is only that Singapore's national strength is too weak, and the reasoning is that the support of iron fist is also very weak. It is not enough to shake the United States without forming a global consensus and joint force.
Can the Sino -US trade negotiations break through or even reach an agreement? The Osaka Summit is a gold node. It is difficult to find the next window.G20 and APEC have always been the Qing talks of the heads of state. The old friends gathered together to narrate the old. The declaration or declaration has no binding power. It is not enough. Fortunately, it is a multilateral diplomacy and negotiation mechanism to prevent it.
China ’s strategy is to strive to reach a trade agreement with the United States, and the signing of testimony of major economies and international organizations in the world; China Cexian is to advocate multilateralism and free trade.Formation.On January 17, 2017, the keynote speech of the Chinese Heads at the opening ceremony of the Davos World Economic Forum was widely praised in the world. It is expected that the reputation of the G20 summit speech has this effect.
──In the first smooth talks between China and the United States need a series of pavement.First, the door and frequency that the two sides attack each other must be reduced now, the ugly and fatigue, and then scolding can not scold the new tricks.Second, during the G20 Finance Secretary meeting this week, China -US Treasury Secretary shall strive for the 12th round of Beijing consultation time to test each other's feasibility and scale of each concession.Third and mid -June, the first China and the United States can consider the phone call to reach the agreement.Fourth, before June 20th, strive to visit Wrightszer and Mnuchin for the 12th round of consultations. Liu He visited the United States every other week to conduct the 13th round of consultations to give a formation, mature, mature, mature Sino -US dollar at the end of the first month of the Sino -US dollar.Candidate plan.Fifth, both sides need to concessions, and China can make more concessions. If the differences are serious, they can be put on hold for a while. Stay for future negotiations and first put the mature fruits into the bag.Anyway, it is easy for the United States to find faults in the future.
──In China and the United States strive to cultivate mutual trust.Mutual trust and cooperation, Nash's balance is most in line with the interests of both sides. This is the common sense of game theory.In the predicament of the prisoner, due to the disability and disclosure of each other, the Nash balance reached after the conflict expanded, it must be a double losing.At present, China and the United States each have a trustee forces, which hinders the friendship between the two countries. The United States has the right right and China has a very left. This is a severe test for the political elites of the two countries.
Moral support from many, scant support.American elite anxiety, lack of confidence in its own values, systems, and future, and lack confidence in adhering to the transformation of Chinese society. In fact, the soft power of the United States is far more affinity and lethal than hard power.China also responds to its own strengths and the US democratic system with confidence. In 20 years, a reincarnation will be held.The strong right -wing forces in Europe and the United States are growing, but it is not as powerful as imagined. It is not terrible. The result of the European Parliament election on May 26 is evidence.Recalling that in the 1990s, the third road that claimed to be beyond left and right was prevailing in Europe and the United States. Is it not fine now?
(Note: The author is a researcher at the Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute of Renmin University of China, WeChat public account: SSWYPL. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
