Lu Ding: There are disputes over the economic forecast of the Sino -US trade dispute upgrade.The Trump administration's intentions in the trade war are not economically rational.How will the trade war end?
Recently, the upgrading of the trade war in China by the United States has become more and more intense.Both scholars and experts in China and the United States have always been mutually beneficial and win -win in economics. They criticize the US government's practices to harm people and be uncomfortable, and equivalent what they do is equivalent to modern businessism.There are also comments that the reason why the Trump administration dares to launch a trade war in China is either out of irrational populist impulse or because of personal political calculations that cater to some voters prejudice.Essence
In this way, this conflict of economic and trade conflicts can easily underestimate the rational process of U.S. economic and trade decisions, so as to misjudge the US government's strategy and motivation in this trade game.
First of all, from the direct consequences of the trade war NDASH; the tariff burden, President Trump himself (May 10) claims that 25%of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods will be paid by China, and tariff income will increase US fiscal revenue.This saying is exaggerated.The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow acknowledged that the US importers were paid payers who paid tariffs. The increase in the increase in tariffs could be transmitted to the burden of American consumers at a rise in product prices.After the tariffs are exported, some Chinese products that can be exported to the United States may no longer enter the US market. This part of tariff income cannot be realized at all. American consumers will also pay higher to buy alternative products from other places to pay higher payments to pay more than other places.price.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) quoted a study on May 23 this year. According to the actual data analysis of the U.S. ’s export tariffs on some Chinese imported products last year, it was found that the cross -border price imported from China (before the tariffs and exchanges) almost almost almost the cross -border price.Without changes, the sharp rise in import prices after tariffs plus levy is consistent with the amplitude of tariffs. This is introduced to almost all costs caused by importers in the United States due to rising tariffs. Some of them have been passed on to American consumers, and the rest will be passed by the importers.Reduce profit margin absorption.Earlier, a study published by the British Economic Policy Research Center was also discovered on March 2.The limitations of the above research are based on the data of cross -border price changes that have been only a few months after September last year.
However, another study published by the European Economic and Fiscal Policy Research Network (Econpol) also estimated the actual tax burden of the United States after a 25%tariff on imports of imports of Chinese imports in November last year. The conclusion is that Chinese export manufacturers are ultimately the endThe 20.5%tariffs will be buried, while American consumers only bear 4.5%of them.This estimation conclusion is likely to be one of the arguments of Trump's speech.This estimated basis is the research results of the price elasticity of various types of imported goods (that is, the sensitivity of sales changes to price changes) in various types of imported goods among countries in recent years.These research results are based on rigorous mathematical economic methods based on rigorous mathematical economic methods based on rigorous and economic methods of more than ten years between more than ten years and regions.In journal.
Judging from the macro impact of the trade war on the national economy, the main international institutions have not yet comprehensively evaluated it. According to the comments of the International Monetary Fund on May 23 this year, the impact of Sino -US trade disputes on global growth has been gentle.The expansion of the new tariffs announced and conceived in China and the United States has recently expanded to all trade between the two countries. In the short term, the global GDP will be reduced by 0.33 percentage points, half of which affects the effects of commercial and market confidence.However, if trade tensions continue to upgrade, it may seriously damage the mood of business and financial markets, disturb the global supply chain, and thus endanger the expected recovery of global growth.
The study released by the US think tank trade partner (Trade Partnership) in February this year applied the computing overall equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) to estimate the impact of the China-US impact on each other on the US macro economy within 1-3 years.EssenceBased on this estimate, the United States' 25%tariffs on all Chinese goods in the United States will reduce the US GDP by 1.01%and lose 2.1 million job opportunities.
The research report jointly released by the American Chamber of Commerce and Rhdium Group in March this year also used similar models to estimate the impact of the Sino -US trade war upgrade on the information communications industry and the overall macroeconomic economy.According to the calculation of the model, if the United States levies a 25%tariff on all Chinese products in the United States, the annual GDP of the United States will be reduced by 0.9%by 2025, and China's annual GDP will lose 1.2%.In addition to the model forecast, the report also discussed the serious disturbance of the trade war on the industrial chain of information, communication products and services between China and the United States, and the United States to tighten the security review and strengthen control exports of foreign investment in the United States.Technology transfer has a negative impact on US productivity.The conclusion of the report is that if the United States restricts trade in China for the purpose of national security and (with China) equal competition, it is necessary to carefully consider the above -mentioned negative economic effects and discuss whether the above negative economic effects should be considered and discussed whether other costs that should be smaller.means.
In China, the author has rarely paid attention. It has been reported that the quantitative assessment of the International Economic Research and Trade Policy of China Agricultural University of Agricultural University has calculated the macroeconomic impact of US tariffs.The laboratory calculated based on an endogenous trade imbalance in 29 countries or regions. The global equilibrium model system is calculated that if the US tariffs on US $ 200 billion in commodity catalogs imported from China increase from 10%to 25%, it will bring China to ChinaThe GDP decreased by 0.66%, the employment of manufacturing fell by more than 1%, but it had little effect on the US GDP (only 0.004%), and the employment of manufacturing was only 0.65%.
The research team also estimates the effect of China ’s 25%tariffs on imported goods from the United States: China’ s GDP will be reduced by 0.61%, and the employment of manufacturing will decrease by 1.06%;1.02%.In fact, the actual countermeasures of China ’s actual announcement at present will only implement 25%, 20%or 10%of tariffs on the US $ 60 billion list of US $ 60 billion in US products from June 1.
If the effect of 25%of the tariffs on the two parties is added together, then China's GDP decline will reach 1.27%, and the US GDP will only decrease by 0.094%.The results are even more obvious.
At present, the only report that predicts the predicting trade war to produce positive effects on the US macroeconomics is announced by the Coalition for a Prosperous American on May 15 this year.According to the economic model prediction based on the 156 subdivided industries, if the United States increases a 25 % tariff on all Chinese imported products, the transformation of import trade and the reorganization of the global industrial chain will reduce the actual import cost of the United States.The domestic economic growth accelerates 0.2 percentage points each year in 2023 and 2024. The substantial GDP that has increased for 5 years will be equivalent to 0.92 % of the level of 2024, an increase of 1.36 million employment, of which 27 % of the new employment opportunities are due toPart of the manufacturing of the United States brought.The reason why this model is so optimistic is that according to the author, it is mainly because of the effects of tariffs on the increase in domestic production and the preset trade transfer will allow lower production cost countries to undertake the production of transfers to the United States from China.
From the results mentioned above, it can be seen that the economic effects of the Sino -US trade dispute upgrade are estimated to predict that whether it is a micro tariff burden or at the level of the macroeconomic gains and losses, it is controversial.The loneliness that the Trump administration has shown in the trade war to date is not economic rationality at all.How to end this trade war depends not only on the understanding and priority of U.S. policy decision makers for the so -called US interests, and it also depends on the results of which economic model estimation is selected.Essence
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
