Author: Liu Danian
On the 2nd, the State Council of China released a white paper on China -US economic and trade consultations. The wording strongly accused the United States of provoking the trade war, harming others and endangering the global economy.It is said that if the United States will not look back in the future, China will be accompanied to the end.
This white paper is mainly warning the United States. If the sanctions against China are endless, China will never give up.China has even stimulated domestic nationalist emotions to condense consensus to fight the United States.Sino -US relations can be said to reach an unprecedented tight situation.
The reason why China has such a strong response is that in addition to the US currently imposed a 25%tariff on US $ 250 billion in Chinese imported goods, it will also pay more than 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, including smart phones, laptops, ready -to -wear clothes.And shoe -shoe improving tariffs, these are the most important processing trade products in China. Once the tariffs are raised, not only will it accelerate the departure of foreign companies in the country, but it also has a great impact on the internal employment market and economic growth.
Although Beijing also pays retaliated tariffs on the United States, due to the gap between the bilateral trade amount between China and the United States, the amount of retaliation of China's imports of imports from the United States is only $ 110 billion, and China's impact is much greater than the United States.
The most dissatisfied with the United States in Beijing is that the United States has strengthened the strength of import restrictions and export control. It has been expanded to Chinese companies to Chinese enterprises and other countries related to China.The connection between China and the global supply chain will be cut off, changing the division of labor in the world, and the influence is more than tariffs.
The United States has not only expanded sanctions in China, but also requires other countries to join the ranks of resisting China. At present, Japan and Australia have followed up. However, in the future, more countries will follow up with the expansion of sanctions in the United States.
In addition, the United States has adopted a more stringent review of foreign investment, the goal is to target China's overseas mergers and acquisitions.Recently, the Shangri -La dialogue held in Singapore, Chinese -US officials have been tit -for -tat in national defense, military and diplomatic issues. The United States has even tightened visas to reduce the number of Chinese students. The two sides have formed a comprehensive confrontation.
The biggest purpose of the United States is to be completely decoupled with China and completely exclude China outside the high -tech field to continue to maintain the strong and technological position of the US economy.However, the supply keys around the world have relying on China for a long time. China has used market -changing technology strategies to attract foreign investment and promotes industrial upgrading. At present, advanced fields such as China and Communications have occupied a place in the world.Is China's long -established position in the global industry can be disassembled in the United States in the short term?However, US President Trump believes that China will give up and the United States will win.Only in the process of transformation, the turbulence cost of global economy must be borne by countries.
At the end of this month, the G20 summit held in Japan will meet in China and the United States. It is expected that it will be an important key to the trade war. Whether it will reach a consensus of temporary soldiers, or a comprehensive showdown and expanding conflicts of confrontation.
(The author is the director of the Regional Development Research Center of the China Institute of Economics)
