Current affairs perspective

The current Sino -US trade war is amplifying snowballs, crushing each other's future.The author tried to start with the relatively micro -small point of the China -US stock market, and to combine and understand the future prospects of the trade war.

It is said that on Friday evening (May 3), the United States received a revised draft from the draft Chinese trade agreement.Trump issued a push on Sunday (the early morning of May 6, Beijing time), and announced that the additional tariff rate of US $ 200 billion from China will increase from 10%to 25%from May 10.

Since China was on the May Day holiday at the time, the stock market opened on May 6.Such a sudden attack naturally hit the Chinese stock market that opened a short time later.On that day, the People's Bank of China announced the reduction in the rating and released the long -term funds of about 280 billion yuan.The official website of the People's Bank of China shows that the release time of this announcement is 09:29:27, which means that it was announced before the stock market opened at 9:30 in the morning.On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 171.88 points, a decline of 5.58%, the largest decline in three years.

Probably coming and not politeness. On the evening of May 13, Beijing time (before the opening of the US stocks), China announced that it would increase the tariff rate of US $ 60 billion in US $ 60 billion in US commodities.On the same day, the US Supreme Court ruled that consumers could sue Apple to use its market -dominated manner to raise the price of its application store, which threatened Apple's billions of dollars in sales.The panic of the Sino -US trade war continued to deteriorate and the uncertainty of Apple's future.

To some extent, the above can be regarded as the offensive and defensive of the United States and China in one round of each other's stock market, or it can be said that the United States and China have the ability to cause pain in the other's stock market.The importance of the stock market is not only that. On May 16th, MIDDOT; Marko Kolanovic, a strategic strategist in Morgan, said: After we observe the US government's actions, we find that the S & P 500 Index has changed about 100Points, the argument and emotions around the trade war will change.

He believes that Trump's right to sell rights is 3%to 4%, and it may be much earlier than LSQUO; Fed's ownership RSQUO; (out of price may be 10%to 15%) to be triggered.In short, Trump will not tolerate US stocks by more than 4%because of the trade war.

On May 24th, Sun Mingde, director of the Standard Forecast Center of the Taiwan Economic Court, also said that the popularity of US stocks determined that Trump's lsquo; hardness RSquo;.He analyzed that from Trump's talk time to US stocks, he could summarize the weak US stocks and Trump softened.For example, US stocks have fallen 0.39%and 1.11%in the last 2 on the 2nd. Trump has changed his mouth to the media that the Huawei issue and the agreement can be solved, which is the best example.

Regarding the trade war and U.S. stocks, UBS analysts estimate that if the United States impose a 25%tariff on all imports of Chinese goods, the US economic growth may be pulled down 0.75 to 1 percentage point, and US stocks may have a double -digit decline.At least 10%of the two -digit number. For example, according to the 4%red line of MIDDOT; Koranovic's research, Trump should come forward twice, and even the Fed may be forced to release water to implement a loose policy.

The stock market, as the barometer of economic activities, has a two -point view on the future of U.S. stocks.It is believed that since March 2009, U.S. stocks have been a 10 -year bull market, and the accumulated downward risk has increased, which is hidden at the top.This year, members of the United States have continued to criticize US companies to repurchase their own stocks. The research institution Ned Davis Research believes that without these US companies repurchase their own stocks, U.S. stocks have long been much lower than they are now.If the excess cash flows to dividends instead of repurchase, the S & P 500 index will fall by 10%.10%according to the 4%red line of MIDDOT; Keroranovic's research, which is enough for Trump to appease twice.

In short, there are virtual fires in US stocks.It is generally believed that Trump will continue to rise in 2020 if re -election will stimulate US stocks, but if Trump's pressure on China is too much, it may end the U.S. stock market in one hand.

In summary, the purpose of writing this article is not to say that if U.S. stocks plunge, it will be beneficial to the Chinese side. For the future of the Chinese stock market, the author is inconvenient.EssenceHowever, if China is more rigorously studying the general trend of US stocks, 4%of the red line, and Trump's re -election in 2020, the linkage between the three will be conducive to finding the path and reaching a part of the two parties who are not satisfied, But roughly acceptable protocols.

The author is Nanjing Mediaman