Sing Tao Daily News Agency Hong Kong's latest retail and entry and exit data are worse than the same period last year. Sino -US trade and scientific and technological warfare can not see signs of short -term resolution. It may further drag the Hong Kong economic performance.Intellectual.

Following the value of sales in the retail industry below 40 billion yuan in March, the latest announced value of the latest April of April fell to about 37.7 billion yuan, and the decline expanded to 4 % lower than the same period last year.five.

According to the analysis of the government and industry insiders, the performance in April this year was so unsuitable, partly due to the two major holiday factors: local consumption, last year's resurrection holiday, two days each at the end of March and early April, this year, all in April, compared to April, compared to April, compared to April, compared to April, comparedMulti -citizens concentrated on traveling out of Hong Kong during this period, reducing consumption locally.In terms of passenger consumption, the small Golden Week of Labor Day last year started from April 28, and this year only started on May 1st, so that some Golden Week consumption was included in the data of April last year.Industry insiders estimate that this reason will make the passenger consumption data stronger than May last year. However, whether the two -month data can reverse the decline after the average of the two -month data, it remains to be announced next month.

Two elephants fighting Hong Kong grassland

Retail figures account for half of consumption, and the other half is service consumption. In the first quarter of this year, the total retail value fell one hundred % compared with the same period last year. It relying on service consumption growth, the overall consumption rose slightly at 0.2, barely not shrinking.In the next few months, it is largely depending on whether the Sino -US trade disputes can be reached as soon as possible, but the situation of the trade war and warfare has not been optimistic, and retail and service consumption have a lot of possibility.

Hong Kong, as an important renewal of Hong Kong in China, will inevitably be directly affected by the trade war. In April, Hong Kong's entrance and exit of Hong Kong fell to expand, and the value of export goods fell at 2.6 %. The value of imported goods fell 5.5 %.EssenceIn the first four months of this year, the five major markets from Hong Kong to the mainland, the United States, Japan, India, and Taiwan fell across the board, ranging from 5 to 25 %.

The officially announced in the Mainland's latest May Manufacturing Purchasing Manager (PMI) index fell below the 50 o'clock Rong Du Line, reaching only 49.4. It is expected that the import and export situation in Hong Kong in May is also difficult to get rid of the atrophy.

In the first quarter of China and the United States, the economies of the first quarter recorded a growth of 6.4 % and 3 %, respectively. It was better than expected. On the other hand, in Hong Kong, the economic growth in the first quarter was only 0.5 % slightly.Sumid.The two elephants in China and the United States are fighting. As a grass under their feet, Hong Kong will be more serious than the two elephants, and the situation may further deteriorate.

Booking measures to keep employment promoting consumption

The trade war impacts the entrance and exit of Hong Kong, while at the same time, it produces a chain response to consumption. Mainland manufacturers' export business has declined, which affects the employment and income of workers.The confidence in your own income prospects, consumption is more cautious than before, and will reduce the number of travels. Even if you keep traveling, consumer shopping may not be as bold as ever.

If the consumption intention and ability to come to Hong Kong in the Mainland will be weakened, the retail consumer city of Hong Kong has slowed down and the income of employees has declined, which will slow down the local consumption, which may form a vicious circle between consumption and employment.

The trade war also damaged the local stock market. The Hang Seng Index ended the trend of four months.It is also not conducive to the consumer market.

In order to cope with the impact of the trade war, the central government has made various measures such as tax reduction and reduction, and may increase infrastructure expenses.Hong Kong's economic growth is close to the stagnation edge, and it is more necessary to have various measures to support enterprises, keep employment, and promote consumption to avoid a vicious circle of social atrophy and unemployment rates.