Ming Pao News Agency
The China Leverage Rate Report in the first quarter of 2019, which just announced last week, stated that the macro leverage ratio in Mainland China increased significantly in the first quarter of this year, from 243.7%at the end of last year to 248.83%, reaching the highest level of history.It can be seen that after a few years of deleveraging, the leverage that has not been easy to drop has risen again, so it is reunited.At the same time, the non -performing loan ratio and overdue loan ratio of small and medium -sized commercial banks in the Mainland are on a rise.All these show that under the official counter -cyclical measures to stimulate the economy, financial risks are accumulating. In the context of the comprehensive wrestling of China and the United States, we must be alert to the overflowing of the conflict between trade and technology to the financial industry.It is also necessary to maintain a constant force and cherish the effectiveness of adjusting the economic structure.
In the first quarter, the bad debt rate of banks rebounded sharply
Since the beginning of this year, in order to cope with the pressure of the decline in economic and the upgrading of the Sino -US trade war, the central government has adopted a number of stable growth measures to stabilize the economic development in the first quarter.The leverage rate rebounded sharply in the first quarter of this year.According to the report, M2/GDP rose from 202.90%to 206.31%, close to the historical high in 2016; the social merger size stock/GDP also hit another 227.57%.This means that the GDP produced in the broad currency (M2) has fewer GDP (GDP), showing that the efficiency of social funds is inefficient, and a large amount of funds have failed to enter the real economy.
It is confirmed that in the first quarter of 2019, a national residential purchase leverage research report showed that in the first quarter of this year, the leverage ratio of residential house purchase reached 31.7%, which was 0.7 percentage points from the month (monthly ratio).rise.According to central bank data, the cumulative mortgage loan increased by 2.34 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) in the first four months, an increase of more than 50 billion yuan over the same period last year.From January to April, the financing scale of housing enterprises was nearly 850 billion yuan.In some cities, there was a small Yangchun market. Among them, in April, the total land sales amount in second -tier cities reached 293.3 billion yuan, refreshing the highest record in the past two years.
On the other hand, some small and medium -sized urban commercial banks (urban commercial banks), rural commercial banks (rural commercial banks) and overdue loan ratio have also risen.Inner Mongolia's Baoshang Bank has been taken over by the China Banking Insurance Supervision last week due to credit risk; 15 banks, including Jinzhou Bank, which are listed in Hong Kong, have announced the announcement of the 2018 annual report or the first quarter of this year.The evaluation of people is related to the increase in non -performing loans or increased loans. Although the proportion of the overall banking industry is not large, the black swan with financial risks has been a ghost.
It is worth noting that the dispute between China and the United States also has the risk of spilling towards the financial field.In the exchange rate report of the US Treasury last week, although China only exceeded only one of the three standards in the United States, it was still included in the list of observation lists without violating more than two or more observation list standards.
According to the New York Times, Trump's former Stephen K. Bannon said that the United States is re -thinking about China's role in the US stock market. As Chinese companies raised tens of billions of dollars through the US stock market, theseThe Chinese company was accused of lack of disclosure of its ultimate owners. Bannon's scolding of the NYSE and Nasdaq violated the responsibility for retirement pensions for institutional investors and hard work to work hard to work.In April this year, a group of senators of the Democratic Republican two parties sent a letter to the White House, calling on the requirements for raising information disclosure to some Chinese companies listed in the United States.The various cuts and decourse sounds have made Chinese companies have to re -evaluate their dependence on the US financial market. SMIC announced that it is the new listing of the NYSE and Alibaba.Worried about reflection.Because Chinese -funded institutions hold at least US $ 200 billion in stocks, the ups and downs of U.S. stocks will not affect China's financial market.
Preventing China -US wrestling spillover financial reforms must have a fixed force
There is no free lunch in the world. The side effects of the central government should be clear about the side effects of stimulating economic measures. The Politburo meeting in April emphasized that it adheres to the structural deleveraging. Reconstruction of the house is used for living and not used to speculate.In April and May, the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development issued a warning of 10 cities with a faster increase in property prices. Among them, the cities named in May include Guangdong Foshan in the Greater Bay Area.
Faced with the complex economic situation and the special financial system in the Mainland, the authorities do face the dilemma of the foaming bubble directly to accumulate leveraged future risk bubbles and deleveraging. Some experts and scholars have made suggestions to improve the direct financial of the stock market and the debt market.As the key link of financial supply -side structural reform, it is not only conducive to achieving the purpose of serving the real economy, but also to promote a virtuous cycle of financial stability.However, this requires fair judicial procedures and referee execution systems to ensure, but also needs to deepen market reform and solve the resource mismatch caused by the dual -track system.
From the perspective of the leverage of non -financial enterprises that have risen sharply in the first quarter, 68.2%is a debt of state -owned enterprise. Therefore, to curb the rise of debt climbing, the key is to deal with the debt between state -owned enterprises and local governments.The central government's previous measures to suppress state -owned enterprises and local governments should not be relaxed due to emphasis on stable growth. Instead, we must deepen the reform of state -owned enterprises and resolve financial risks with reform.The adjustment of deleveraging to China's economic structure is very critical. There is a pain in the short term, but it cannot be given up.While how to prevent financial risks while steady growth, properly grasped the properly, testing the regulation and level of regulation and control of the authorities.
