Economic Daily News
Every year on April 15th and October 15th is the day when the US Department of Finance will announce the exchange rate report in a routine. This year's list is not announced.Yesterday, the report was finally released. Taiwan was not included in the list of exchange rates or observation lists, and Taiwanese could also be relieved.
The so -called exchange rate manipulation refers to the following three conditions of the US Treasury Ministry of Finance. It is determined that there is a country's operation exchange rate: one is that the trade surplus to the United States reaches more than 20 billion US dollars per year; second, the economic account surplus of the economy accounts for domestic production.The proportion of gross (GDP) exceeds 3%; third is that the exchange rate trading does not respect the market function. For example, the continuous one -way buying foreign assets promotes the depreciation of the country's currency, and the total number of purchases in the year accounted for more than 2%.If the three economies of an economy are met, it will be identified as a exchange rate manipulator; if only two indicators are met, it will be included in the observation list.
Taiwan was included in the list of observation in April, October and April 2017 in Taiwan, but it was not on the list since then.In the first quarter of this year, Taiwan's trade surplus to the United States was only about 1.8 billion US dollars, and the frequent account surplus accounted for the GDP ratio to 11.81%. In addition, the central bank's trading foreign exchange has been market -oriented.So there is no on the list.
As for the rumors in the market, there may be two reasons for the release of the United States in this delay: First, whether the second standard, that is, the threshold of the current account surplus accounting for the GDP ratio is changed from 3%to 2%.If you use this stricter standard, more countries will be included in the exchange rate manipulation list, such as mainland China.The United States has always emphasized that market functions and trade balance cannot tolerate some countries to have a large number of trade surplus but do not appreciate. Especially for countries that export a large number of exports to the United States, they must impose penalties.
At the 2010 G20 Seoul meeting, US Treasury Secretary Gina had proposed that when the frequent account surplus of a country accounted for more than 4%of the GDP, it means that the country's trade was seriously unbalanced and the currency must be appreciated.At that time, both mainland China, Russia and Japan opposed it because they were more than 4%.Perhaps it was inspired by this. In the past, the United States determined that the value of the second definition of the exchange rate manipulation of the country was 3%. Now it is rumored that it may fall to 2%in the future.Too much, and most of the surplus come from the United States, please appreciate quickly, otherwise the United States will retaliate.
The reason why the second market rumor may be that the US Department of Commerce has also joined the war, and the retaliation will be implemented from the overall economy to the level of individual companies.If a country has the competitiveness in the market because of the low exchange rate, the goods of a company in this country are competitive in the market, the United States can levy counter -subsidy taxes to increase the price of this product; this tax is similar to the anti -tilt taxi tax.When subsidy behaviors, you can use the subsidy tax.
The United States' approach emphasizes the concept of market function and based on trade balance, but all designs are unilateral claims, and even distorted trade balance concepts, naturally it is easy to cause criticism.The current account surplus of a country accounts for a certain ratio of GDP, and it is necessary to appreciate immediately. The frequent account deficit accounts for whether the GDP ratio exceeds a certain ratio. It should also be depreciated immediately. It is a truly sustainable trade balance. In this way, whether the US dollar should also depreciate.But recently, the US dollar has appreciated, causing the currency depreciation of various countries. Can the United States also manipulate the exchange rate?
Second, presidents of various countries should not interfere with the central bank independence.If within 12 months, the president of a country shouted to the president of the central bank: our currency value is too high, and interest rates should be reduced.That is, it should be regarded as intervention in the foreign exchange market and listed as a exchange rate manipulator.In this way, US President Trump has already shouted many times to the Federal Fair (FED) and requires not to raise interest rates, so whether it is also an intervention in the exchange rate.
Third, as long as it is the export of goods, it should be included in regular accounts, and there must be no exception.Therefore, the sale of military fire should also be included in frequent accounts, so the three major arms exporters: the current account surplus surplus surplus in the United States, Russia and mainland China will increase significantly.
If these three new exchange rate manipulation definitions are added, because our president does not point out the central bank, it still does not meet the definition of exchange rate manipulation, and Taiwan is an importer of the arms.A model of economy that pays attention to trade balance should be praised by the world; in contrast, the United States and China will be listed as a exchange rate manipulating country.Unfortunately, the small country does not punish the power of a big country. The large country has set any reasonable or unreasonable rules, and the small country can only like it.
