Fan Lei: The ideological conflict between China and the United States is fundamentally different from the Summei conflict during the Cold War.The more thorough the rules are, the lighter the pressure on the development of development.
Since the Trump administration announced on May 11 that the tariffs of US $ 200 billion in export products from 10%to 25%, China and the United States have deteriorated rapidly in various fields.The Chinese side subsequently imposed revenge on the tariffs on 60 billion export products in the United States, and the US government announced its export control to Huawei, a high -tech company in China.At the same time, the wrestling of China and the United States in Taiwan, the South China Sea issue, and the Iranian issue have also attracted attention.On May 21, the United States announced that its ban on Huawei was delayed for 90 days. It seemed that it had left a certain space for the Sino -US G20 summit. The Sino -US trade friction seemed to be slightly slow in the short term.
However, after the failure of bilateral trade negotiations, Sino -US relations are so out of control. On the one hand, it not only illustrates the important position of economic and trade relations for Sino -US relations.mdash; mdash; more than $ 600 billion in trade scale MDASH; mdash; it seems difficult to suppress other contradictions and differences between China and the United States.Judging from the current situation, it may have been to systematically examine the bilateral relations between China and the United States and consider strategic response plans.
Sino -US relations: the root cause of conflict and the possibility of ease
The author believes that the contradictions between China and the United States have both the Xunxidd trap and the conflict between the emerging power of the emerging power and the great power of the great power, and there are also inconsistent ideological and political and economic operation rules.The current unprecedented challenge of Sino -US relations is the direct consequences of the continuous accumulation of contradictions in these two fields in recent years.
In the past few decades, although China and the United States have always had differences in terms of ideology and rules, due to the large gap between China and the United States, it is difficult to impact on the international systems led by the United States and the United States, and the United States has always been in China in China.In the process of continuous reform and opening up, it has gradually accepted the western concept and system hopes, and the contradictions on bilaterals can always be effectively controlled.
However, in recent years, with the closer of China and the United States' strength and the development of some of China in terms of conceptual system, the United States suddenly discovered that if everything is always, it may not only replace the United States to become the leadership of the international community in the future.The country, and the international order supported by China may be significantly different from today's international order.This pose a major threat to the national security and values of the United States.Of course, the United States needs to unilaterally consider adjusting Sino -US relations, and Sino -US relations have deteriorated rapidly.
Theoretically, if the contradiction between China and the United States has re -alleviated, there are at least one basic contradictions that need to be relieved, which is nothing more than two situations: 1) Sino -US institutional arrangement has gradually converged; 3) a country in China and the United States has been weakened.In a second -rate country, no longer pose a threat to the other party.The former can bridge the differences through common value concepts and rules, and control bilateral conflicts; the latter needs to go through a zero -sum game to decide the winner.
Different order pattern vs General with the rule of law
The conflict between China and the United States in terms of concepts and rules seems difficult to bridge MDash; MDash; China is a socialist country and the United States is a capitalist country.It is generally believed that Chinese state -owned enterprises control key industries while the United States is private capital; the Communist Party of China is the product of the Workers and Peasants Alliance, while the American ruling class is the representative of the large bourgeoisie; socialism advocates common prosperity, while capitalism is profitable.The richness is huge.
However, can such a political generalization really explain the fundamental differences between Sino -US rules?Nothing.The author believes that the ideological conflict between China and the United States and the Soviet -American conflict during the Cold War are basically different.In terms of ownership, whether the Chinese Constitution protects private property rights like the United States, whether to completely eliminate private capital and exploitation seems to have never been a key issue in China and the United States conflict mdash; mdash; or even one of the issues.Although Chinese state -owned enterprises have a huge influence, many European countries such as Norway, Singapore in Asia also have large state -owned enterprises MDash; MDASH; in the case of competitive neutrality, the United States and them have no ideological conflict.
In terms of common prosperity, most western countries attach importance to providing social benefits to low -level people. Some Government expenditures in the Nordic countries account for more than 50%of GDP, and social distribution is particularly average.In fact, in the past China -US strategy dialogue, the United States has repeatedly demanded that China increases the dividends of state -owned enterprises, uses funds for the welfare expenditure of the public, increases China's consumption and domestic demand, and balances the trade relations between the two countries.Judging from statistical data, the Gini coefficient in the United States is lower than China, and the gap between the rich and the poor is less than China.
Among the parliamentarians in the United States, it is indeed relatively high in lawyers, entrepreneurs, and bankers, but there seems to be few representatives of farmers and workers between the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Political Bureau.In fact, if an ordinary manufacturing worker needs to complain about the government and expresses his demands on public affairs, it is easier to find a member of a member of his own constituency in the United States than to find a party member of the party in China.
The author thinks that the differences between the rules of China and the United States may be more derived from the differential pattern of farming civilization and the contradiction between the common order of commercial sailing civilization and the rule of law.This difference is first seen in the work of Mr. Fei Xiaotong, the founder of Chinese sociology.He believes that China's social structure is like a circle of ripples pushed out of a circle of stones on the water. Everyone is the center of the circle introduced by his social influence. In different circles, it is suitable for different circles to different circles.Rules mdash; mdash;For example, when Chinese social affairs are affordable, ordinary people are publicly run by public affairs; acquaintances can support relationships, walking back the back door, the closer the relationship, the wider the back door usually.Therefore, there are a large number of small circles and small groups in the social network of the Chinese.
Conversely, Western society is a commonly connected in the person by a common shelf mdash; mdash; society or the country; first with this shelf, everyone settled on this shelf, and then associated with each other, so respect the general rules and pay attention to the rule of law.Western social feelings are relatively indifferent; parents send their children to college children even need to repay tuition fees from their parents.The differences between the East and the West are also reflected in language. There are dozens of vocabulary about non -direct relatives in Chinese. They are distinguished from far and near, while only UNCLE, Aunt, Cousin and other words are used in English.
According to Mr. Fei Xiaotong, China's difference is related to the agricultural society of China for thousands of years.Farmers are generally self -sufficient economic units. If they are in contact with the outside world, if you have a child, you have to send red eggs, and there is a funeral to help him. Usually, there is a scope of communication.The rules used indifferently are different.In the beginning, Western civilization was navigation civilization and commercial civilization.Starting from the origin of Western civilization, the Greeks have taken trade navigation as the economic foundation. They do business with the Persians in the east, and they also do business with the Egyptians and Phoenicians in the south and west.Ping, make a set of generals.
The author believes that this angle may better explain the rules and value conflicts of China and the United States.Americans complain that the Chinese market is not open and the rules are not transparent. The author believes that in fact, for the people and enterprises in the circle, the Chinese market has been open and the rules are also very transparent.The United States has criticized the Chinese government to subsidize state -owned enterprises and cannot do the neutral competition. In fact, the difference in the differential order originally means that the pro -son and the dry son will be treated differently.
Government power in Western society is bound to ensure that the government also obeys the rule of law and the general MDash; MDash; the government is just a entity connected to the shelf of social contracts, and the government also has business, academic, media, etc. with the government;However, in the differential pattern, the Chinese government is the center of the entire society MDASH; mdash; how can the center be in the same position as other positions?Therefore, the government has substantially guided and managed enterprises, universities, people, and other social organizations in various ways.
Among them, the Chinese people feel that it is taken for granted to go to the IOE strategy but restricts the Americans's concerns about national security. HuaweiFiltering, this is not intended to implement dual standards.For thousands of years, Chinese society has been pursuing the old Mencius and the old man, as well as the old man; the young and younger order criteria of the young people, and the thinkers who advocate and love, such as Mo Zhai, scolded, thinking that they had no father without a father.No king.This concept is significantly different from Jesus Christ's love to the world.
Choose one: greater efforts to reform and open and even dare to become an allies in the United States
From a cultural perspective, it is difficult to say that the East and the West system is better.However, if it is a standard for facilitating socialization and development of productive forces, it may be recognized as a more advantageous system of respect for western society.In this sense, the best choice of China should be a greater degree of reform and opening up, which can alleviate the contradictions between China and the United States to a greater extent; even if the reform in the economic field is not enough, it is not enough.Considering the reform in more sensitive ideology and political system.Why not boldly imagine that China will even become a member of the American allies after accepting these more modern rules?
In my opinion, whether government power is not related to checks and balances seems to have nothing to do with the dispute between socialism and capitalism. It is more like the difference between farming society and industrial and commercial society.
From the perspective of power games, after the rules' conflict is brought to succession, the Xiuqi Dande trap between China and the United States has become China's legitimate development right and the minority right -wing forces that must maintain the status of the United States.In contradictions, China is expected to strive for more sympathy and support Mdash in the United States; MDASH; US Vice President Pence and former Treasury Secretary Ballson's speech last October shows that many Americans worry about China's development route.The rising concerns of MDASH; mdash; the United States is by no means a iron board.At the same time, if China accepts and maintains more advanced world political and economic rules, major developed countries like Europe and Japan may not be standing in the United States.
More importantly, respecting the rule of law and the general general itself will not only greatly liberate China's productive forces and enhance China's comprehensive strength, but also effectively unite the strength of domestic unity, avoid many people in China because of the government's representative doubts, and hold onlookers on the trade war.The mentality of the person.Even if the Sino -US conflict, the probability of winning China will increase significantly.
China's choice 2: The risk of the New Cold War and the becoming a second -rate country
Of course, if the differences in the conflict of rules are difficult to facilitate, China may need to carefully prepare a real war mdash; mdash; even if the hot war can be avoided, the Cold War may not be able to escape.Considering the huge difference between China and the existing international system in many concepts and rules, China's rise must be a huge threat to the United States.The author believes that until one day, a country was defeated and completely reduced to a second -rate country, the two countries curb each other, and they may continue to fight each other, and there is a room for ease between China and the United States.
The author believes that preventing China from obtaining advanced technologies from the spillover of Western countries, and at the same time, the government -based Chinese economy and market economy -based western market derailment is the basic means to weaken China's strength.Although the Trump administration does not seem to talk about rules for high -tech companies such as China, once China and the United States establish a confrontation relationship, the author believes that such a thing may be more and more intense MDASH; MDash; no matter who is the US president.
If China and the United States eventually moved towards the New Cold War, although China could not say that there was no chance to win, but the reality of historical experience was caught in a country that was trap in Xunxida, the rising power directly challenged the victory of the great power.Although some patriotic people have the enthusiasm of dedication to the country, it is not advisable to underestimate the unity and sacrifice spirit of the United States after establishing a threat.The American business community has always been criticizing the domestic government's provoking trade disputes, but more and more business leaders are silent in the case that China may be a threat of the United States.
Some people say that time stands in China, but I am afraid that the United States (in fact, most of these theories are proposed by American scholars), which are familiar with the theories of the conflict of major powers.In fact, if the channels for technological progress in China have been stuck, the Chinese economy and market economy countries are gradually derailed, and China ’s national strength is consumed on security issues such as Taiwan, and China’ s strength is difficult to rise.In addition, considering that China's current system is difficult to get the general recognition of the international community, China is also difficult to find a strong and trusted allies in China and the United States.
If China fails, it may lose the opportunity of the nation to continue to revive, and the road to modernization may also be suspended halfway.The author believes that the United States' containment of China will ultimately ease mdash; MDASH; after China becomes a second -rate country that has not threatened the United States.
History choice
Prior to the G20 Sino -US summit at the end of June, the friction between China and the United States seemed to have signs of temporary relief.In this rare window period, the two sides carefully think about handling the bilateral -related empty window period.The development of China -US relations in the next few months may be a critical moment that has a significant impact on billions of people in the world and a significant impact on the history of the world and the history of the next decades.
There are media comments in China that China has no intention of challenging and replacing the United States, and the United States cannot control China.The author thinks that this statement cannot trust others mdash; mdash; the United States cannot pin the security of itself and the international system in the future, and underestimate the influence of the United States in the future of the United States for the future of China; mdash; if the United States is determined todayDetermination to curb that China may cause great obstacles to China's modernization.
China's future depends to a large extent on its own choice.The author believes that the more thorough the rules are, the more lighter the United States' pressure on the United States in the development space; the mdash; although it also requires a skillful struggle and fight for Chinese; vice versa.I look forward to that Chinese politicians can have sufficient wisdom and courage to lead China's giant ship to the reef beach of the big country's game and end the historical cycle of the rise and fall of the two thousand years.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
