Zhu Yiping: From the perspective of the US -Japan trade war, the United States usually launch a 301 survey at the end of the economic cycle.The trade war has become the US counter -cyclical policy.What inspiration is this?
Most of the research on the Sino -US trade war focuses on the political cycle of the United States.However, our research has found that the United States launched a 301 survey has certain economic cyclical characteristics.Judging from the three main stages of the development of the US -Japan trade war from the mid -1970s to 1997, the United States usually launched a 301 survey of major trading partners at the end of the economic cycle.Forcing measures such as currency appreciation of major trading partners, implementation of export limit, expanding import quotas, and other measures to reduce the trade surplus. At the same time, they urged them to improve the domestic laws and regulations such as patent law and adopt economic policy coordination.The trade war has become the adverse period policy option at the end of the cycle.The United States launched a 301 survey of China this time. The United States is also at the end of the cycle. Although the economic growth of the United States is still stable, the long -term spread reversing shows that the US economic growth may enter the top range.
We judge that Sino-US trade friction may continue to exist in the next 2-3 years.Data recently showed that benefiting from tax cuts and fiscal policies, China ’s recession trade surplus since 2014 may soon end. At this time, the United States continues to fight against China with common sense.
The United States has three stages of Japan's 301 survey.In the history of the United States, a 301 investigation was launched in Japan, mainly concentrated in the mid -1970s to 1997.In the first phase of 1976-1982, for example, 1976-1977 color TV, 1976-1978 Iron and Steel, 1977 silk leather, 1978 beef and other agricultural products, 1979 telecommunications, 1982 shoes, etc.Most of these trade disputes ended in the end of Japan's expansion or termination of import quotas and opening the tendering of the telecommunications industry.In the second phase of 1985-1989, the semiconductor communications industry in 1985, 1988 beef citrus and other agricultural products, 1989 satellite government procurement, 1989 giant computer government procurement, and technical discrimination of wood products, etc.
The trading disputes finally signed the 1987 semiconductor agreement with Japan and the United States, and the 1989 US -Japan structural disorder agreement ended. The Japanese domestic market was fully opened to the United States. During this period, it also included the 1985 square agreement that the world was familiar with.In the third stage, 1994-1997, President Clinton signed an administrative order on March 3, 1994 to announce the restoration of the super 301 clauses. In May 1995, he imposed a 100%tariff on luxury cars from Japan in accordance with the 301 clauses.In June, the Minister of the Pass of Japan's Ministry of Communications invited the US trade negotiation representative Kanter's final negotiation, and quickly reached a compromise a few hours before the end of the United States, signed a bilateral car trade agreement.Although the two parties reached an agreement, the trade sanctions against Japan were put into practice and extended to 1997.After the automobile trade agreement was settled, in 1995, the Fed and the Bank of Japan jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market to suppress the yen to pass obvious signals to the market: the United States can tolerate the devaluation of the yen.
In these three stages, the United States is at an exception of a currency tightening cycle of interest rate center.From 1976-1982, the interest rate of federal funds in this period fluctuated sharply, soaring from 4.8%in 1976 to 19%in July 1981.During this period, the monetary policy changed several times. In 1979, Paul Bull; Walker served as Chairman of the Fed, launched the monetary reform experiments, and abandoned the currency supply growth rate, interest rates and M1 growth rates used in 1970 to 1979.Monetary policy operation model sets the M1 growth rate as the Fed's monetary policy goal.First of all, the interest rate of the Federal Fund was launched through the open market operation to guide the federal fund, but because of the concern of too much currency supply, the inflation broke out again. In 1981, the silver root began to tighten the silver root, the M1 growth rate fell, and the interest rates soared. In 1982, the US economy entered the recession again.Essence
From 1985-1989, the United States entered the interest rate hike period in 1987. During the period, the federal fund target interest rate rose from 5.88%in 1986 to 9.75%. After the final round of interest rate hikes in May 1989, in July, the interest rate reduction cycle was opened.EssenceIn the third stage of 1994-1997, the Federal Reserve entered a new round of interest rate hikes in February 1994. The Mexican debt crisis broke out. Facing the bad debts of commercial banks caused by Mexican debt defaults and the domestic economic growth dilemma brought about by this.In February 1995, the interest rate hike cycle was suspended. In March, Mexico obtained a joint loan from the United States, IMF, the World Bank and the American Development Bank.13 kinds of Japanese luxury cars imposed 100%tariffs.
In these three stages, the US economy has shown obvious tail characteristics. The trade war cannot eliminate the economic cycle, and the trade war cannot achieve the policy purpose of extending the economic growth cycle.In the first stage of 1976-1982, the economic growth of the United States fluctuated greatly, and it fell into a decline in 1982.In the second stage of 1985-1989, the US economy fell into a recession at the end of 1990.In the third stage of 1994-1997, the Japanese version of the financial bang officially launched in 1996. In June 1999, the Fed restarted the interest rate hike process. The US economy fell into a decline in early 2001.From the historical experience, although the trade disputes in the United States and Japan have adopted domestic laws and regulations such as currency appreciation, export limit, expanding import quotas, improvement of patent law, etc., and the adoption of economic policy coordination, it was announced. However,The trade war did not prevent the United States from falling from the top range of growth to decline.
The current economic structural characteristics of the United States are similar to the US -Japan trade war.First, the United States is in the interest rate hike and US dollar appreciation cycle.In September 2014, the Federal Reserve ended bond purchase, and issued the principle and plan of the normalization of monetary policy, and clarified the five aspects of the normalization of monetary policy. In December 2015, the Fed officially opened this round of interest rate hikes.The target interest rate of the fund has been up to 225bp.The US dollar index has risen from 78 in early 2014 to 103.8 in early 2017. At present, the level of 97-98 is still appreciated by about 25%compared with early 2014.Secondly, the US economic growth is still stable, but a decline signal has appeared.The US rounds of economic expansion have lasted for 40 quarters, and the duration of ten years in the 1990s.
In the first quarter of 2019, the actual GDP growth rate was 3.2%, which was 1.3 percentage points higher than the potential economic growth rate, and the growth was still stable.However, the March March spread of the United States in March is now upside down, and the growth rate of consumption and equipment investment in private sector has begun to slow. The investment growth driven by equipment investment is the main driver of US investment growth since 2017.In March, the Federal Reserve interest conference lowered the economic growth rate of economic growth in 2019 to 2.1%.
The trade deficit has not led to the decline in the US economy. In fact, the trade deficit is the periodic characteristics of the United States reaching the top of the economy.The United States usually opens a 301 survey of major trading partners at the top of the cycle. Its appearance is that the US trade deficit is wide, but its deep reason is that the US economic cyclical factors.Since the second half of 2017, the US economic growth has grown strong, and the trade deficit of the same period has continued to increase. According to data from the US Economic Analysis Administration, the US trade deficit with China has almost half of the total trade deficit in China.Surface reason.However, despite the widening trade deficit, since the second half of 2017, the growth rate of GDP in the United States has continued to grow higher than the potential growth rate. The unemployment rate has been lower than long -term natural unemployment rates for 20 consecutive months, and economic growth is still stable.
The trade deficit did not lead to economic deceleration. On the contrary, the trade deficit is the result of the prosperity effect of the US economic prosperity. Especially when the US economic cycle reaches the top interval, its trade deficit shows a wide range of signs.
China ’s domestic economic growth has a short -term bottom, and it is not afraid of the impact of the trade war. The recession trade surplus since 2014 may be about to end. At this time, the United States continues to fight against China with common sense.In the past ten years, especially in the past five years, China's economic growth is mainly structural.A large part of the trade surplus since 2014 is the recession surplus caused by the lack of domestic demand.In the first quarter, China's actual GDP growth rate stabilized at 6.4%, ending the downlink situation of 0.4 percentage points of the actual GDP in 2018, showing that economic growth was tough.During the year, the fiscal and monetary policy tool box was still rich, and he was capable of responding to various internal and external uncertainty.Financial supply -side structural reforms have been implemented steadily, and various reforms and open policies are gradually implemented. The construction of science and technology boards enhances the service level of the capital market to improve my country's key core technology innovation capabilities. Injecting the long -term growth of China's economy into the institutional dividend of reform and opening up.
Since the beginning of this year, especially in April, foreign trade data showed that a series of economic policies such as tax reduction and tax reduction have obvious effects on domestic demand, indicating that the decline in the past five years may be over.However, due to the risk of risk of the trade war, the imports of Chinese companies from the United States in recent months have declined from the United States. Exporters of the United States have not benefited from China's domestic economic growth. It once again explained that the war was two harms and a win -win situation.
Sino-US trade frictions may continue to exist in the next 2-3 years.Judging from the history of the United States' launch of a trade war in Japan, the United States usually launch a 301 survey of major trading partners (mainly Japan between 1976-1997) in the economic cycle of interest rate center rise, US dollar appreciation, and economic growth reaching the top interval.The United States has launched a comprehensive trade war in China this time is no exception. It is the top of the expansion cycle of this round, which is similar to the macro background of the previous US -Japan trade war.Although the economic recession signal with a spread of the US economy has occurred, the US growth is still stable in the short term, and the trade sticks in their hands may continue to wave.China and Japan in that year have both a certain economic cycle similarity and essential differences.The trade surplus in the past five years has a strong decline characteristics, which is similar to that after the square agreement.
However, in the past two decades, China has participated in the economic development model of the global value chain vertical division of labor system, which has a essential difference between Japan.In the future, the fourth industrial revolution has reshaped the global value chain. Whether as a producer or consumer, China will be a global defender.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
