Cao Xin: Trump tries to dismantle and stripping the industrial chain. It is difficult to operate. According to the author's understanding, most European companies in China will not leave the Chinese market.
One of the most prominent focus of the world's public opinion last week was that the Trump administration used laws and administrative forces to sanctions with Huawei and more than a dozen Chinese companies and several Chinese universities.Through this, the Trump administration's policy goals for China have been very clear: By suppressing these industries and research institutions in China in the world, the speed and quality of the Chinese economy catch up with the United States.One of the important aspects of these is to impact the global industrial chain with national administrative forces and forces some foreign companies to withdraw from China.Although the manufacturing industry is complete and large in scale, a considerable part of it is in the hands of foreign companies, especially the high -tech industry.
However, in view of the 40 years of developed industrial chains that have been dependent on Chinese economy and developed countries in the past 40 years, the Trump administration's practice of disassembling and peeling the industrial chain with administrative forces in the short term not only makes this process very painful.And it is difficult to operate in practice, because it is not only the Chinese family that hurts this.
According to the author's understanding, most European companies in China will not leave the Chinese market, which is reminiscent of the saying that the East is not bright and West.
European companies will not leave the Chinese market
In order to understand the current thoughts of European companies in China, the author did some investigations, and the results were very different from the US companies in Chinese companies.
According to the European Chamber of Commerce in Europe, according to their surveys, in the context of the current Sino -US trade conflict, most European companies in China did not leave China, but they continued to stay in China.There are two reasons here: First, most of the products produced in China European enterprises are sold in China, not to the United States.It only takes a very small proportion, rarely more than a quarter.All this makes it difficult for the US government and law to have a role in European companies in China.
Even those companies that are influenced by US law and administrative forces in the current Sino -US economic and trade conflict, they also said that they must wait and see to make decisions. They need to see the results of this conflict before making decisions.And they have been working in the Chinese market for many years, and it takes a while to leave.
Of course, European companies in China have always believed that they have not enjoyed real national treatment in China and have been calling for it.Not long ago, the Chinese EU Chamber of Commerce also issued a report, claiming that 20%of European European companies were required to change technology in China.But this will not lead to the evacuation of European European companies.
It is possible to join forces to deal with Trump
In the investigation, the author found that many people in the Chinese Chamber of Commerce were convinced that after Trump fought a trade war with China, the next goal was Europe.
Observing Trump's behavioral logic since he came to power, he actually wanted to establish a new set of worldwide economic and trade frameworks and rules.This approach cannot be said to have no reason and objective needs, but the problem is that the starting point of Trump's do first is to first think that the United States is the victim of the current WTO's order and rules, so he takes the mentality of revenge and wants to renew his grievances.U.S. interests are preferred everywhere, which makes it difficult for his ideas and practices to accept the world.Hearty and short -term interests, lack of global vision and strategic thinking, tactical businessman's characteristics that are shorter than strategic restricting his ambitions, and also allowed him to suffer everywhere.The worries of European business people in China also originated from this.Among these European businessmen, Trump is more commonly known as garbage.
Regarding China -EU jointly to respond to Trump's trading disk, it is generally believed that if Trump continues to work like the current president, and even worsening, the possibility of China and the entire European team will exist. At present, and some European Europe, some European EuropeIt is entirely possible for the country to join forces.
Wins and losses also need to be observed
Other important information of the world's public opinion last week also supported the prediction of the bright prospects of the East to the West, and made people's prospects for the Sino -US trade war.
A move of Japan last week was very eye -catching.According to the Kyodo News Agency, the Chinese and Japanese governments launched the first director -level meeting of the two directors of infrastructure construction in Beijing in Beijing in Beijing.Generally speaking, in diplomacy, this level is to talk about specific issues, and Trump will come to Japan to visit soon.In the context of the current Sino -US trade conflict, this move of the Chinese and Japanese governments is undoubtedly meaningful.
At the same time, last week, the International Monetary Fund issued a report saying that Trump's tariffs imposed on China will be borne by American importers and American consumers.The U.S. Treasury Minister also acknowledged during the testimony of Congress last week that American consumers would bear the additional tariffs on China.
It is undoubtedly unknown to all of these impacts on the politics of the United States, especially the upcoming US presidential campaign, and will inevitably affect the prospect of this trade war more or less.
In the face of all this, it is too early to talk about the victory of Sino -US economic and trade conflict.
(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
