Huang Yizhen and Chen Liangrong: Trump listed Huawei as a blacklist for export control, and TSMC publicly expressed his support for big customers, saying that he would continue to ship Huawei.Why can TSMC be affected by the control order?

U.S. President Trump is not as thunderous to cover Huawei and 70 related businesses in the exports of the US Department of Commerce. This means that any supplier to sell or transfer technology to Huawei mustThe permission from the US Department of Commerce must be stopped to Huawei before obtaining permission.

Therefore, the US semiconductor factory Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, and the memory of the memory of the memory of the Midigo, immediately issued a statement and frozen shipments to Huawei.

Trump's knock on this giant thunder, almost zero -time spreads from China, Taiwan and South Korea across the Pacific Ocean.

South Korea Samsung also met urgently after Trump issued an order.Because if the memory factory Micron cannot be shipped to Huawei, this may be the opportunity of Samsung. A Samsung employee was originally on the phone with a Taiwanese science and technology analyst, and was crowd back to the meeting by the company on the spot.

At the same time, in Huawei, Shenzhen, a Taiwanese factory product manager responsible for Huawei's laptop was intensely inquiring about whether the United States banned Huawei, and whether it covered the US factory chip.After learning that it was confirmed that the US chips and memory companies were banned, he said helplessly that my laptop was greatly affected, and the CPU used Intel.

The most fascinating purpose of the technology industry is the most fascinating goal, but it is a semiconductor -related industry outside the United States, including Japanese and German businessmen, and even reported the embargo on Huawei.Previously, the German -Shang Shang Fei Ling of the Siemens Semiconductor Department was also reported by Nikkei Asia Review that some of the shipments of Huawei were temporarily canceled for the time being.

The headquarters in the United Kingdom, after Trump announced the embargo against Huawei, came out immediately to cut off its exchanges with Huawei.

A foreign analyst told us that ARM employees said that after the company's internal command was issued, all business and engineers were prohibited from meeting with Huawei employees.ah.

The essence list promulgated by the US Department of Commerce is really powerful. Once ranked among them, not only did the US company immediately cut off with it, but even foreign companies were within its radiation range.

Key figures in Trump's ban

According to a report from the Ministry of Commerce Regional Export Control Officer of Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Australia, John Haberstock states that the Bureau of Industry and SecurityIt is mainly used for dual -purpose items that can be used at the same time, such as carbon fiber, tool machine, and semiconductor.

When Huawei is included in the substantive list by the unit, the goods, software and technology of Huawei must perform export control (EAR) are divided into three types: first, in the United States; second, from the United States (from the United States (from the United States (U.S-Origin); and the most critical, the third type that makes the science and technology industry the most, is made in foreign countries, but its content from the United States exceeds the upper limit.

And this upper limit is 10%if Iran, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria; these four evil countries, such as China where Huawei is located, is 25%.In other words, as long as you sell it to Huawei, there are more than 25%of the United States.Sorry, your company is also regarded as a US company. He has to listen to the US government and implement embargo on Huawei.

Therefore, when Trump included Huawei and its branches (including Taiwan's news) in the substantive list, it was a barren Eurasian -related technology manufacturer, and it was a barren Eurasian -related technology manufacturer.For example, a few days ago, Yingfei Ling launched a supply chain survey, including requiring a Taiwan packaging factory to submit a report, indicating how many packaging materials for Yingfei Ling products came from American manufacturers.

After completing the preliminary statistics, Ying Feiling subsequently issued an official statement on the 21st, saying that it will continue to supply most of the products to Huawei without being restricted by the US export law.

And ARM, choose to be obedient.The British BBC has obtained a memorandum of the company issued to employees, asking employees to suspend business with Huawei, including contracts, technical support, and any continuous exchanges.But how can this British light be violated 25%limit?

BBC's memorandum of memo, the core of operations authorized by ARM to Huawei contains technology from the United States.A foreign analyst explained that the reason is that one or more cores authorized to Huawei, which is authorized by ARM, and the R & D center is just located in the United States.

How much is TSMC's technology in the United States?

At this moment, the most noticeable, the most discussing the entire Taiwan technology industry is TSMC.Because the company has become an indicator of Huawei concept stocks in recent years, Hisilicon, a subsidiary of Huawei, is the second largest customer after Apple, which is second only to Apple, accounting for 8%of TSMC's revenue last year. The first and second quarters of this year reached 11%The amazing level.

My Huawei's friend, the old god, said that it was all ready, and there was no problem in the short term, a Taiwan science and technology industry analyst said.He revealed that in the first half of this year, Hisilicon went down to the accumulation 16nm order, which saved almost the first and second quarters of TSMC this year.

Because the first half of the year was the off -season of smartphones, Apple and Xiaomi have repaired the shipping target. Hisilicon, which is 100 % supplied to Huawei mobile phones, proposed super optimistic shipments.

Huawei is better than others, but the analyst circle is discussing as well as selling?Will you not change the inventory if you prepare so many materials?But this analyst recalled the situation at the time, and now everything suddenly opened up.There is a reason for stocking, just like before the Pearl Harbor incident, he described.

Hisilicon has always been TSMC customers with the most advanced process. TSMC's second -generation 7nm process that has just been mass -produced. For the first time, it introduced 7+ EUV micro -shadow technology. Hisilicon rushed to be the first white mouse.In contrast, Apple, the largest customer, is much more conservative. It will not enter the venue until the 5nm that is mass -produced and introduced in large quantities of EUV next year.

TSMC also publicly expressed its support for large customers after Trump's announcement, saying that after preliminary assessment, it should meet the export control specifications and decide not to change the shipping plan for Huawei, and will continue to ship Huawei.

When we inquire with TSMC, whether it means that the internal actuaries have been completed, and confirmed that TSMC shipped to Hisilicon's products, which originated from the United States less than 25%.Sun Youwen, the senior director of the Enterprise Information Division of TSMC, said that (export trade control) is not only 25%of the rules, but also other rules. We have the tracking and monitoring of all shipments in the internal export management system to ensure that we meet the rules.

But the question is, how can these 25 % of technology be calculated in the United States?Who said it?Because the Ministry of Commerce has no detailed provisions, there are divergent opinions.

A former UMC supervisor believes that TSMC is sadly 25%of this level.The reason is that most of the production machines in the wafer plant, such as etching and CMP (flat) process, come from the application materials of large US equipment factories. At least 60%of the light equipment comes from the materials, it is difficult to not exceed 25%. He said.

However, foreign analysts said that if the cost structure of a chip is serious, it also includes the cost of R & D investment and managing manpower.Therefore, in the end, the American ingredients are likely to be less than 25%.But he also said that this regulation has left a blurred zone. How is the US ingredients calculated?It also allows these companies to have the decision to kiss the United States or kiss the operation space.

Hisilicon's threat to American companies is more than 5G

Many Taiwan semiconductor industry believes that although semiconductors including ARM and EDA manufacturers in the United StatesKey operators, suspending technical support for Hisilica, causing Hisilicon's vitality.However, it is not ruled out that the U.S. government will further hit Huawei and Hisilicon (for example, to include China into the level with the four major evil countries, and the US ingredients will be reduced to 10%), because Hisilicon's future threat to American companies, and Hisilicon's future threat to American companies.It may not be as well as well -known 5G fields.

American businessmen Bernstein Securities has rarely published a 18 -page research report on Hisilicon's unlisted company in January this year.IC design new stars hiding after Huawei.

Bernestein Securities estimates that Hisilicon's 2018 revenue was as high as US $ 7.6 billion, which was only slightly lower than the Taiwan IC design enterprise MediaTek, which was slightly lower than that year.Bernestein Securities also expects that Hisilicon, which maintains an average 20-30%growth rate each year, will surpass MediaTek this year, becoming the largest and fifth largest IC design company in Asia and the world's fifth largest IC design company.

The report also revealed the fact that the Taiwan industry was not known in the past.

It turned out that Huawei has won a lot in the cloud market in recent years. In the server and memory market, it has ranked second and first in China.Some of these products are installed in the ARM core server processor developed by Hisilicon's self -development. The latest third -generation products launched this year have adopted TSMC's 7nm process to directly challenge the core business of Intel, a large US factory.

(The original text was published in the world magazine. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.)