Source: Industry and Commerce Times
In nearly half a month, as the Sino -US trade war threatened to start, and the dawn of peace talks will be revealed in a while, which has caused the global financial market to fluctuate violently, especially the decline in U.S. stocks and land stocks is the most significant.
For example, the US President Trump (D. Trump) on May 5th, Eastern Time, issued a post on a community platform, sayingThe daily limit of thousands of shares fell below 2,800 points, and finally closed at 2,906 points, a decrease of 5.58%.When the 11th round of trading negotiations between China and the United States, the Sino -US parties failed to reach an agreement as expected, but Trump said that he received the Chinese President of China ... a good letter, coupled with the Chinese negotiator representatives who said modest representatives to bring themselves to bring themselves to bring themselves to bring themselves to bring themselves to bring themselves to bring it.With sincerity, the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on May 10 rose more than 1.5%.At noon on the day, the market's increase in tariffs was coming into effect, making the market be cautious again.However, the news of the Chinese national team's entry into the market was reported in the afternoon, causing land stocks to start in the afternoon, and eventually increased the market.
China launched a counterattack on May 13, announcing that it will increase tariffs on imported goods from the United States from June 1, causing the Dow Jones Index to open more than 500 points;A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also said that China agreed to continue to discuss related discussions, so that most of the financial markets increased on that day.However, on May 15th of the Eastern Time, Trump signed an administrative order to disable telecommunications equipment that constitutes a dangerous state security in Guoan. China Netcom Factory Huawei was also on the blacklist, and the land stocks were repaired again. On May 20, the United States saidProviding Huawei's 90 -day exemption period seems willing to give room for negotiation.
In just two weeks since Trump's tweets, the reason why China and the United States and the global financial markets rose sharply like a roller coaster, mainly due to the breakthrough of market expected trade negotiations, which will lead to the double losses of China and the United States.The consequences, which then dragged down the global economy, prompted the stock market to fall; on the contrary, if the negotiations between the two parties have positive news, it is expected that the economy is expected to turn well and make the stock market pick up.
The problem is that this expected expectation of the economic post -trend is difficult to touch the core of the trade war. Instead, it is easy to be busy like the dog who is chased by the host.If you want to understand the cause of the current Sino -US trade negotiations, you must start from China and the United States on the international stage -the dominant power of geopolitics and trade rules, where is now located.
As far as the evolution of national strength is concerned, since World War II, the United States has been the leader of the international political and economic order, and it is also the controller and last arbitrator of geopolitical direction.However, China has made unprecedented achievements in the past 20 years, and its influence in the Asia -Pacific region has gradually increased.... After taking office, further deployment of global strategies belonging to China and establishing new international rules, promoting the Belt and Road Initiative, Asian Infrastructure Investment Banks, Made in China 2025, and RMB internationalization all belong to this.East Asia, Eastern Europe and other emerging market countries, and a strong attitude in geopolitical issues such as the South China Sea dispute, make China go from the hegemony of one party to the throne of the new global hegemony.
It is conceivable that of course, this will threaten the United States, which is located in Status-QUO POWER. President Trump is the first national security strategy report in his office, that is, Chinese and Russia are directly named and Russia are strategic competition.Opponents are also the intended to change the Indo -Pacific pattern and shake the core interests of the United States. Revisionist Power.
From the perspective of the dominant view of trade rules, in China in 2001, after entering the WTO in 2001, it has played the advantages of its huge labor force, low labor standards and environmental protection standards, and plays the role of the world factory.Economy, due to quantitative changes, has become the current situation of international trade advantages.Under the unfair trade operation and capital account control, a huge trade surplus in China has a huge trade surplus, especially after accumulating a large number of foreign exchange preparations, China tries to accelerate the internationalization process of the RMB through trade advantages, and even win the Saudi KingdomThe issuance of RMB for the issuance of Petroleum Futures in the Shanghai Stock Exchange has become more clear to challenge the United States.
Therefore, under the consideration of self -protection and rights protection -to ensure that the existing geopolitical dominance is not weakened, retrieved trade activities and rules, and the major trade war on China isOptions.It is necessary to use this to reduce the long -term trade deficit in China, but also hopes to reshape the absolute strong position of the United States as the leader of international economic and trade rules.
In order to say, because both China and the United States are actively competing for geopolitics and trade rules, the trade negotiations can reach an agreement, and it will never be a perfect period for Sino -US competitive relations.
It is troublesome that the original thinking of Trump's violence and repeated impermanence on the Sino -Sino -trade war is derived from personal characteristics.As for deterioration.However, from the perspective of the current situation, not only the United States Republican and Democratic parties have consensus on actively dealing with China's threats, but even the attitude of American companies has silently changed.The tough trade policy, instead cooperating with the policy to make corresponding decision -making adjustments, and recently, Google echoed Trump's Huawei ban, saying that it would suspend the cooperation with Huawei as an example.
Therefore, even if many people think that the Sino -US trade war has reached an agreement, it is only a matter of time, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the wrestling and pull of the current seemingly seeing the blood.However, as long as the United States adheres to the ideological idea of the leader of international political and economic order, the Chinese side has not changed the ambitions of global political and economic power.I am afraid that it is just a battlefield or combat method.
