Comments: Sino -US trade war, do not force each other into the corner

Sun Xingjie and Zhang Xiaohu: Competition ends at the trade war and ultimately end the trade war. It should be both the pursuit of both China and the United States, or the bottom line of controlling Sino -US relations.

As China and the United States impose tariffs on each other, the momentum of solving differences through negotiation for more than half a year seems to be reversed.Although it is only the difference between trade friction to the trade war, it reflects the nature of this trade dispute.The Sino -US trade war is an economic war, not a military war. It tests the ability to circulate and cooperate with both parties.Just like the two boxers on the boxing platform for a trick, when they entered the corner, the advantages of one party would inspire the courage of the other Jedi counterattack.

Under the atmosphere of the current trade war, the trend of upgrading the trade war is relatively obvious, especially the United States.First, Trump's trading art, when the situation is relatively good, increase the asking price and threaten it.The second is that the atmosphere of election in the United States is getting stronger and stronger, and Chinese issues are becoming the most important diplomatic issue in US election politics.During the election mobilization, the slogan was flying, and the Democratic leaders of the House of Representatives criticized Trump for being not tough enough for China, and the Democratic Party's presidential candidate was probably the same.Third, the driving force of the United States' policy on China is changing, and the pursuit of commercial interests began to change to ideology.

Agriculture is the industry with the most obvious influence of the trade war. Trump said on Twitter: Our farmers are great patriots and will become one of the biggest beneficiaries of what is happening now.Trump's media director Tim Bull; Multo said in a statement: Farmers are patriotic, and they understand that someone must finally ask China to be responsible for Hello; Hello; farmers understand the long -term nature of the war.

The Sino -US trade war has also stimulated China's domestic anti -the United States, and even evoked historical memories of anti -US aid to the DPRK.However, the nature of Sino -US relations is different from camps during the Cold War.In the middle of the last century, China and the United States had confronted for more than 20 years.In 1972, Sino -US relations were normalized. In 1979, China and the United States established diplomatic relations. As Deng Xiaoping said, the development of Sino -US relations was considered from global strategy.In the past 40 years of China and the United States, the nature, structure and issues of bilateral relations have undergone tremendous changes.

Sino -US relations are increasingly equipped with systemic characteristics.Sino -US relations have far exceeded the category of the two countries and have become the most important relationship in the global economy.Both China and the United States are large countries with their own systems. The development of relations between the two countries is closely related to global strategic stability and economic prosperity.The Sino -US trade war must bring changes in the global interest distribution pattern.Under the theme of the trade war, the two sides may only pay attention to relative benefits, but Sino -US relations are in the center of the global stage. The loss and benefits of both China and the United States are not allocated between the two parties, but allocated globally.

For example, the addition of tariffs only means that their respective commodity prices will increase, and the market still needs to find alternative options.Both sides need to pay greater costs for this process of searching.

The improvement of Sino -US relations and China's opening to the outside world are carried out simultaneously.China has been integrated into the world economic system and released huge energy, especially in the ten years after joining the WTO, China has become a world trade country.China and the United States have a huge trade volume and are considered to be bilateral -ballasting stones, and the form of Sino -US trade has also changed fundamentally, that is, from finished trade trade to intermediate trade trade.China and the United States are key links in the global industrial chain, supply chain and value chain system. The interdependence between the two countries is deep and compound. Regardless of tariffs or administrative ban, they cannot match the new structure of the Sino -US economy.

Taking Huawei as an example, after the US Department of Commerce included Huawei into the entity list of imported controls, Qualcomm and Broadcom's stock price of Huawei suppliers fell sharply.From the perspective of the supply chain, Huawei, as an organizer of the global supply chain, is not limited to two countries, China and the United States.Huawei has 28%of the global telecommunications equipment market, and the 5G contract obtained exceeds other companies.In the telecommunications equipment industry, Huawei is already in the global giant, and the United States' containment of Huawei is like a knife breaks, which will not be effective.

Incident tariffs may be only the first initial actions in the Sino -US trade war, and it is also a application for the era of reciprocalist thinking in the supply chain era.Many economists in the United States believe that Trump's policy is very stupid because the cost of improving tariffs will also be transferred to American consumers.If the tariffs imposed on Chinese -American transit products increase to 25%, Americans should bear a consumption tax of about $ 100 billion.Of course, under the supply chain system, the transfer of cost is not equal, which involves its status and bargaining ability in the supply chain.

Under the Sino -US trade war, the global major stock markets have fallen to varying degrees, which shows that the degree of mutual dependence of the global economy far exceeds people's imagination.In addition, the structure of the industrial chain formed by the three major economic centers of East Asia, Europe and America is also complicated and deep.In fact, the trade war has accelerated the adjustment of the industrial chain, and the tariffs have actually deteriorated the market environment of both parties.The global economic system is composed of technology research and development, energy production, assembly processing, marketing and other links.

Due to the tariffs on China and the United States, the price of agricultural products, energy and other products in the United States may not enter the Chinese market, and China needs to find higher prices alternatives.In this case, the cost of the Sino -US trade war is borne by both parties, while the income is transferred to the energy production countries and the countries or regions that undertake the transfer of the industrial chain.

In recent years, the issues of Sino -US relations have been greatly expanded, and it has penetrated into the fields of global governance. Trade disputes are only one of the issues of Sino -US relations.The expansion of the issue undoubtedly increased the spinning space of Sino -US relations, but also represents the potential concerns of Sino -US relations.If the confrontation continues to spiral, more and more issues will be involved, and eventually become a comprehensive confrontation.For both China and the United States, competition ends at the trade war and eventually end the trade war, which should be both the pursuit of the two countries, or the bottom line of controlling Sino -US relations.

(Note: Sun Xingjie, Deputy Dean of the School of Public Diplomacy of Jilin University; Zhang Xiaohu, Assistant Researcher at the School of Public Diplomacy of Jilin University. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.