Author: Dai Zhaoyang
From 00:00 on May 10th, with the official import tariffs on US $ 200 billion in US $ 200 billion in China, the US -China trade dispute has intensified.Although, countries generally believe that the reason for the reunion of the war is that China ’s draft draft draft agreement is deleted by China before the 11th round negotiations in the United States and China, and it is adjusted to adopt administrative rules management. Among them, plagiarism is plagiarism.Two of intellectual property rights and illegal business secrets have threatened the United States' dominant position in global science and technology, leading the United States to adopt tariffs to force the China to make concessions.
However, Trump has no fear of fighting this time. In addition to repeatedly related to the preliminary promise of negotiations with the above -mentioned Chinese tearing in China, its real purpose is for the upcoming election election. The most important thing is how to complete the United States to complete the United StatesOnce again, great vision, continuously plays the global dominant position.These strategies may be able to discover from their three objective discovery, including:
First, on the grounds of obtaining fair trade, we will restart negotiations to safeguard the interests of the United States.After Trump came to power, the current multilateral agreement violated the interests of the United States, which led to the loss of the world's dominance. In addition to the withdrawal of international organizations such as the TPP and the Paris Climate Change Outline, etc., it was restored to trade negotiations with important countries and required to be included in the United StatesFacilities.For example, in September last year, it signed a new version of the trade agreement with South Korea. In October last year, the Trade Agreement (USMCA) replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mo.The United States has continued to achieve results in trade negotiations, and has also retrieved the existing status of the United States in global economic integration.
Second, the premise of reducing the trade deficit and indirectly crack down on China's real economic activities.With the extension of the US -China trade dispute, while forcing China to open up the market more, it has enabled the prosperity of the two countries to appear contrast. The American real economic activity shows unprecedented enthusiasm. In 2018, the economic growth was 2.9 ﹪.The unemployment rate fell to 3.6 ﹪, the lowest level of unemployment rate since 1970. Compared with China's real economic activity, it showed a phenomenon of slowing, and its capital market turned fluctuations due to trade disputes.That is, with the increase in the downward risk of China's economy, it has pushed the rise of the rise of the United States to lead the United States.
Third, it is based on the pretext of ensuring intellectual property rights to prevent China's high -end technology curve.In the face of the rapid rise of China's high -end technology industry in recent years, Trump's understanding of the US -China industry competition is much more competitive than cooperative relationships. If you can take strict control measures for the high -end technology industry, it will cause Chinese foreign high -end high -end high -end technologyIt is difficult for manufacturers to develop, and they are finally forced to leave China to invest in the United States. In addition to preventing the overtaking curve of China's high -end technology industry, it has even caused its industrial structure to be impacted, achieving the effect of one stone and two birds to ensure that high -end technology leaders leadersstatus.
Obviously, in the face of the coming of the Presidential election in the November 2020, most people in the United States did not agree with Trump's style of act, but they were generally satisfied with Trump's economic achievements.For Trump, instead of eagerness to reach the US -China trade agreement, it is better to enter the extended fire accumulation of folk reputation, but it is beneficial to achieve re -election.Especially the trade negotiations with Japan and the European Union have not yet been completed. If it can be buffered for more time, it will help them propose the results of foreign trade negotiations; in addition, under the U.S. priority concept, to condense the consensus of the internal atmosphere of China in the United States' internal atmosphere of China,It can be shaped as one of the main axis of the campaign, and it can give full play to the great election strategy of the United States again, and then successfully obtain the presidential re -election.(The author is a consultant for the Modern Finance and Economics)
