Source: Economic Daily
After 11 rounds of negotiations between China and the United States, it seemed to enter the deadlock. The new wave of war started again. The mutual trust of each other has obviously suffered harm. Fortunately, it has not broken the game.Sino -US economic and trade frictions started from last year's ZTE, extended to Huawei, and even began to affect the exchanges of scientific and technological academics on both sides.The first is to continuously increase the bargaining chip of Taiwan. Through the Taiwan guarantee law, it is reinforced from the side of the wing.As the United States, in terms of breadth and intensity, is indeed extreme pressure and forcing China to be as follows.
For a period of time, it can be seen from the Chinese response that it was a tendency to compromise at the beginning. Later, it was discovered that the United States had a lot of requests, and it was too strong on the issue of Huawei and Taiwan.On the whole, China lacks a macro understanding and grasp of the game situation, and it seems passive in response and has no rules.Here, you may wish to observe the idea of Trump and explore his game strategy and tactics.
First of all, there is no doubt that there is only one core goal of Trump's governing the country: the United States is preferred, the United States is first, so it is never allowed to replace it, and even any country can challenge it.Will hit it down.In the past 100 years, the United States has played from the German Empire, the Japanese Empire, and Nazi Germany to the Soviet Union to the Soviet Union to all the second and third countries in Japan.Obviously, the current China has more and more sufficient conditions to become the primary goal of the United States in the new century.
Secondly, how to fight?Where do you start?On the surface, it is trade and tariffs, but it is not.It is true that China has a huge trade surplus to the United States, but it does not necessarily have an equivalent relationship between the United States to be a trading country and the first trade country and the first in the United States.The United States and Trump care about the huge trade imbalance between the United States and China, reflecting the growth and changes in the competitiveness of the two countries; the phenomenon of trade is the result, and competitiveness or more accurately to say that science and technology competitiveness is the source.Therefore, the United States should deal with Chinese technology, and to deal with everything related to Chinese science and technology, including the exchange of science and technology industry policies (Made in China 2025), key technology industry Huawei, technology and science and technology talents.As for how to deal with, it is to attack trade and tariffs, and the real goal is the technology industry.The specific method is to pressure China with tariffs, so that China exports to face tremendous pressure, forcing China to put on the negotiating table, and then open all the so -called unfair trade on the negotiating table.Make concessions and adjust.
Faced with the strategy of the United States (on the premise of being unable to use nuclear weapons, the second child of China is the best choice at the moment is to cast out China ’s great scientific and technological potential) and tacticsWhat kind of strategic thinking and tactics should China have to do in industrial scientific and technological policies?Looking at strategic thinking first, the most important thing is to distinguish the weight, followed by the principle of firmness.The distinction of weight refers to the light trade or export, industry and technology heavy.The latter is the original, the former is the end; in detail, the latter cannot compromise, and the former can concession.The so -called firm principle is to understand that trade and tariffs are things between the two countries, and can discuss negotiation; industrial and scientific and technological policies are things within the scope of China's sovereignty, and there is no room for the United States to be beak.
Term and tactics.Under the aforementioned strategic thinking, the negotiations between China and the United States are limited to trade and tariffs.The United States does not reach its goal, and it will inevitably increase the degree of tariff revenge. On the surface, in terms of tariff war, the United States has huge advantages. In fact, it is not good;Not to mention that a considerable part of the Chinese exports to the United States belong to US companies.In other words, as the United States continues to increase tariffs on China's exports, China's exports will be affected to a certain extent, but China can completely keep its potential advantages in the development of the science and technology industry.Dance is the greatest extent to protect Chinese enterprises and buyers.
Borrowing Jin Yong's famous sentence: He is strong, and the breeze is strong;He came to himself, and I was so angry.
