Industrial and Commercial Times Society
Since the start of the Sino -US trade war on March 22, 2018, the two sides have stopped and stopped, and the United States has continued to increase. The list amount on July 6 is 34 billion US dollars.The USD dollar was 25%of the tariffs. The amount of lists on September 24 was as high as US $ 200 billion, but only 10%of the tariffs were levied, which was intended to be condemned.Sure enough, since December 1st, the two sides have entered the negotiation, and the US -China trade war temporarily retreats. After 10 rounds of negotiations, the two parties' trade representatives will report good news on March 1, 2019. It is scheduled to reach a formal agreement in mid -May.All circles thought that the princes and princesses lived a happy life since then.
Unexpectedly, US President Trump threatened on May 5 with a 102 -character Twitter.From 10%to 25%.Trump has severely accused Mainland China a one -sided amendment of various clauses that have been discussed in the last moment, and instructed the US negotiators to tell China that the negotiation representative Liu He had reached an agreement with the United States for three to three weeks. Otherwise, A 25%tariffs of more than $ 100 billion in China ’s U.S. -U.S. -US products, that is, if an agreement has not been reached, the United States will export all commodity courses to China with a high tariff of 25%.After Liu He returned to China, China also sacrificed 10%to 25%of tariffs on the US $ 60 billion in goods exported to China. The new round of trade war was enthusiastically re -launched.
The Sino -US trade war is not the impact of the two countries.Under the global production and trade structure, the supply chain manufacturers of related products have also been affected. It is the so -called city gate fire and pond fish.The supply chain manufacturer is affected, which indirectly affects the employment and economic growth of the country where the manufacturer is located.Some people describe that 25%of tariffs are like a white mother ball on the hit table. When Trump strives to push the pole, the mother ball ran towards a group of colored sub -balls fiercely.Color balls such as Chinese counterattacks, production line migration, capital expenditure, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuations, and investment confidence will all run out of order with Trump's push rods.
After China ’s counterattack, the migration of the production line is the most direct association and response of the manufacturers in the gaps; for example, Renbao announced that he would go to Vietnam and go to Indonesia with Shuo Shuo.Even if it moves to Vietnam or Indonesia, which is relatively low in labor and does not have high tariffs, the total total cost is still very high.Mainland Taiwanese businessmen certainly consider returning to Taiwan. However, many manufacturers left because of the five shorts. The return or not still depends on whether the five lacks have been improved smoothly.
In terms of capital expenditure, the impact of the trade war is global. Even if there are no $ 200 billion of goods last year, and the increase in tariffs from 10%to 25%.In terms of average, the annual growth rate of global enterprises in March last year was 21%, and March this year decreased by 3 percentage points from the same period last year.In May this year, the trade war was enthusiastically began, which is bound to be more unfavorable to the growth of global capital expenditure.
In addition, in terms of economic growth, the German Bank's report pointed out that within 18 months of the trade war, the GDP growth rate in the United States and China will fall by 2 percentage points.
In addition, the overall GDP growth rate in Asia is probably reduced by 2 percentage points in 12 months.The report of German Bank of China specifically pointed out that the economic growth of Hong Kong and Taiwan has the largest damage, and it is estimated that 3.9 and 3 percentage points are estimated to be reduced.As for Europe, it may enter the economic recession.
However, the view of Zhou Yiyuan, a researcher at the National Economic Research Agency (NBER) and a professor of the Department of Economics at the Municipal University of New York, is very different from the German Bank.He believes that the Taiwan economy instead benefits from the trade war.Compared with the US GDP growth rate decreased by 1.06 percentage points, China's GDP decreases by 1.05 percentage points, and Taiwan's GDP will grow against the trend by 0.47 percentage points.There is also Zhang Jianyi, the dean of the Taiwan Economic Council with the same view. He believes that the US -China trade war has begun. It is a crisis for Taiwan but also a transfer. Because Taiwanese businessmen return, Taiwan's economic growth rate in the next 5 to 10 years may reach 4~ 5%.
Following the trade war between China and the United States, US President Trump signed an administrative order last Wednesday (15th), announcing the prohibition of US companies from being unacceptable to the US Guoan's unacceptable foreign telecommunications equipment and services.In an interview on Thursday, he said that the order of Huawei will take effect on Friday.This administrative order announced on Wednesday will ban Huawei from acquiring components and technologies from US companies without government approval.However, the US Department of Commerce announced on the 20th that the ban was delayed for 90 days.
In short, the conflict between China and the United States has increased from the trade war to scientific and technological warfare, and the impact will continue to expand.Because China's exports to the United States are as high as US $ 539.5 billion, the United States exports to China is only $ 12.3 billion. In terms of trade war, China's chips are relatively insufficient.The order not only forced Huawei to withdraw from the US market, but also banned Huawei from purchasing key components and technologies from American companies, which was very obvious to stifling Huawei's motivation.
How will the Chinese side respond?All parties are very concerned. Generally, guessing may use the indispensable rare soil of high -end science and technology for specific countries, as a retaliation tool for scientific and technological warfare to make American allies choose the side; on the other handThe trend is degraded to 7.2, and even further degraded to 7.5, completely offset the impact of increasing tariffs.In other words, after the scientific and technological war, the exchange rate war may follow.
