Cao Xin: Russia is alleviating relations with the United States without forgetting to maintain relations with China; and the United States and Europe's contradictions are expanding in key areas such as diplomacy and defense.
What the international media showed us last week was a scene in the process of deep changes in this world pattern: the diplomatic game of China, the United States and Russia.Russia relieves relations with the United States, and at the same time does not forget to maintain relationships with China; Trump has postponed a car tariff to Japan and Europe at the same time as a relationship with Russia, and exempts the steel and aluminum tariffs in Canada and Mexico.Concentrated forces to deal with main opponents; at the same time, contradictions in the United States and Europe expand in key areas such as diplomacy and defense.
The above -mentioned game provides a vivid picture of the foreign environment during the rise of China.
New situation in China, the United States and Russia's triangle
First of all, in the face of the current international general trend, Russia is repairing relations with the United States, and the United States has this urgent need.
According to the Russian satellite news agency, US -Russian relations are slow, and US Secretary of State went to Moscow to meet Putin, and Putin was late for three hours. Before that, Putin was late by Trump.When he met with Pompeo, Putin said: Through the one -hour phone call he and President Trump a week ago, the impression he got was that Russia -US relations would definitely ease.It is reported that in the calls of both parties, Putin and Trump also talked about China.
In addition, it is very interesting that the day before the reception of Pompeo, Putin met with Chinese State Councilor Wang Yi.The Russian satellite news agency reported on this report: The two sides discussed the related matters of Chinese leaders who were about to visit Russia, and Putin also praised the China Belt and Road Initiative.At the same time, a Russian presidential spokesman said: There is no trade war between Russia and the United States.This almost explicitly shows Russia's balanced diplomacy between China and the United States.
Subsequently, the Russian Ministry of Finance announced that the tariffs of Russia exported oil increased by $ 5.8 per ton, because the situation of the US and Iraqi situations will inevitably affect the supply of Iranian oil exports and the world energy market.For oil import prices, Russia can take the opportunity to make a lot of local earnings to improve the current economic dilemma.
It is obvious that the relationship between the United States and Russia's tension is also a strategic measure.Trump is very clear that his unilateralist approach has too many enemies internationally, and in the established enemies, Russia is definitely an opponent that cannot be ignored. It must ease the opposition first because it is not concentrated on Trump's concentrated powerCome on the main enemies.
In addition to repairing the relationship with Russia, according to many international media reports, Trump has also postponed the taxes on Japanese and European, and canceled the Canadian Mexican steel and aluminum tariffs.Obviously, he has deeply realized that he cannot be nervous internationally, and he must concentrate his strength to deal with major enemies.
The above -mentioned situation is clearly that the United States and Russia are trying to force: the United States Russia eases relations in order to concentrate on dealing with the main opponents; Putin adopts a strategy that no one in China and the United States will offer, sitting on both sides to collect political and economic benefits.The use of US -Irained relations and the money to make oil exports, although this will seriously affect Russia's attitude towards US forces against Iran; as for China -Russia relations, of course, the status quo can still be maintained, because at least Putin is not yet fallen to the United States.He couldn't have any eyes.
However, there are two points of China. I am afraid that it must face: buy Russian oil at a higher price; and to take care of Russia's interests more in bilateral relations between China and Russia than before.
All of the above can make people have to imagine the results of the above situation and the Chinese factors in it. At the same time, people have a new understanding of Putin's diplomacy and China -Russia relations.In addition, the changes in the relationship between China, the United States and Russia's triangle caused by the changes in China's strength have also shown very intuitively.
Europe is becoming the most important variable in the structure of structure
At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo was very face -to -face last week.
International media reports said: Pompeo first had to attend the EU Foreign Minister's meeting without being invited, but he was rejected and was rejected.
The Russian satellite news agency then reported that the EU 28 countries unanimously decided to oppose the United States' martial arts against Iran and refused to follow the US force to combat Iran.Can be achieved.The White House is unforgivable.Considering the strong support and cooperation of US military operations in the Bay, before the air strike, and the Syrian war, the EU's independent steps were quite large.
The next day, the British Financial Times also reported that the United States warned the European Union to deepen the internal military cooperation between the EU countries, saying that this was a dramatic retrogression of cross -Atlantic defense integration.The above -mentioned behavior of the European Union is objective to weaken and even gradually disintegrate NATO diplomacy and defense, and is moving towards self -reliance.
Many observers believe that the European and American conflicts are internal contradictions, and the thunder is loud and rainy, including some of the domestic observers.But the situation in Europe and the United States is indeed different from the past.
The development trend of US unilateralist policies in the Trump era has made many European countries, especially old Europe, that the current European and American conflicts are no longer as simple as the previous simple business conflict.The fundamental problem is that Trump pursues unilateralism and must change the rules of game rules between Western countries. Since the first unilateralism in the United States, the rules that Trump will establish in the future may not be possible.Take into account the major interests of Europeans, the first thing it must ensure the interests of the United States.
Therefore, the nature of contradictions begins to change, and Europe must stand on its own and protect themselves.
On the other hand, the changes in European policy may play a role in the change of the entire world pattern. Cross -Atlantic relations are the cornerstone of the American rule of the world. Once this one is weakened, it will inevitably affect Russia and the United States relations, thereby spreading to China, Europe, China, and Russia.Sino-US relations.As long as Trump does not change the unilateralist policy, this process may begin.
Trump's fatal weakness
When Trump first came to the stage to announce the withdrawal from TPP, the author had a basic judgment on the person in a report: paying attention to short -term and front -eye interests, and a poor global awareness and vision; good at tactics and weaker than strategy.
Seeing his approach since he came to power, you can find that his basic logic of foreign operations is: as much as possible to bear the obligations that the only superpowers in the world must assume, and the contribution to the world should be made as much as possible.The interests of others; and with bilateral diplomacy as the main operating model to ensure the overwhelming advantage of the United States in the process of achieving this goal.But he forgot a rule: When the boss is to contribute, he has to transfer some interests to others, otherwise why do others follow you?
Just care about yourself and the boss of his subordinates and allies. It is destined to be not long, and the international community is no exception.Trump, who was born in business and good at handling of cases, lacks consciousness and experience in this area.Therefore, we see that even in terms of allies, he has no mercy for Japan, South Korea and Europe in terms of defense costs, free trade agreements, and market opening up.In the game, let yourself be trapped in a place of fighting alone; even if people's superficial cooperation is perfunctory, this is fully exposed in the Huawei incident.
Some international economic and trade professionals in China judge: Trump wants to build a new global trade framework and rules. Under this framework, it will never tolerate any country to promote enterprises and business in unfair competition with other countries.EssenceBut there are two problems here.First, in the context of the bad world economy, use such aggressive and harmful recipes.Can the new ideas be implemented, can other countries accept it?
When others cannot accept you, how do you build new order and rules?Even in the end, the process is destined to be bumpy.Second, the countries around the world are large and small, and their strengths are very different. The rules that Trump wants to establish is actually limiting the development path and means of others. Of course, some development paths and means do not meet the WTO rules, but whether there is such development or not?The path and means are the same: small country or small economies will never be in their early days.In this way, you are not good for others. What about big powers such as China and Russia?Why are you willing to worship at your feet?
During the current world structure, Russia tried to turn around and collect the advantages of fishermen during the collapse of the past world; Europe and Japan are damaged people; China has no retreat.
Observing Trump, the biggest card in his economy is the huge market in the United States, and the Chinese market is also huge. Therefore, as long as China further opens the domestic market and truly treats foreign companies with national treatment, it will open up unilateralism, special, special, special, special, specialTrump is not terrible, and the United States may not be able to win.
Similarly, China must also learn from American practices, extensively make friends, and reduce opposition. Among them, Europe and Japan should be the key targets of contacts, and they should establish special relationships in economy, trade and strategy to cope with the current and future situations.
(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
