Sino -US trade and war indicators: The depreciation of the renminbi

Industrial and Commercial Times Society

Sino -US trade disputes are war or war, caught in a fog, and various messages are mixed. Some mainland media even issued a ceasefire in the Sino -US trade war at 7 am.Withdrawing, and the US sanction of Huawei's ban accompanied by the so -called observation period, Trump also issued the G20 summit at the end of June and ... Tan He's peace pigeons, both China and the United States have continuously released various thorns.Identifies, even the observer close to the core of both parties could not find the direction in the fog.

Indeed, after the negotiations between China and the United States have not received specific results on May 10, they both raised the volume of opposition, showing the determination to never concession, and took various punitive weapons to the stage, trying to coerce the coercion with high pressure to coerce the force.Opposite yield.The devastating weapons held by the political, economic, and financial levels held in the hands of both sides were taken out of the opponents, and they were also prepared for the worst situation.However, regardless of Trump or Both, both China and the United States have not affected the ability to start war. The regime of the two must be based on the final peace talks. Even if there is a challenge to increase the opposite, the win -winning options still exist in the two sides.In front of the eyes.

It is not easy to master the complicated political situation inside the Washington or Washington before the recreation of peace between the two sides or in the battle.Becoming a tactical weapon that is inevitable to be negotiated and tactical, to judge the situation of trade negotiations, but it depends on the financial market.In addition to falling, the most indicator is undoubtedly the rising and depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar.

The RMB has three major functions: key projects, mainland government policies, and mainland economic impact indicators.In the core project of China -US negotiations, the United States strongly requires that China cannot use the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate as a tool. Of course, the exchange rate depreciation is two -sided, but the mild and orderly depreciation is one of the most favorable tools to resolve punitive tariffs.When the two parties talked about people sitting on the negotiating table, the RMB exchange rate must be stable to avoid the manufacturing dispute. However, when the two sides conflicted conflicts, they also got rid of the United States to threaten and let go of the renminbi exchange rate depreciation.

Therefore, after we see that since the negotiations of the early May, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has quickly depreciated to 6.90 from the level of 6.73 yuan against 1 US dollars, with a depreciation of 2.5%.And the levels of challenges twice at the end of last year, all returned to the People's Bank of China under the policy protection of the People's Bank of China. 1-7 has become a highly indicated exchange rate level.The progress of negotiations has also stepped on.

However, the depreciation of the exchange rate of the renminbi is still mild. According to the statistics of this newspaper on the 20th, from the beginning of the year to May 17th, the exchange rate of Asian currencies against the US dollar is generally depreciated, of which 7.22%of the Han Dynasty and NT $ New Taiwan dollars were depreciated.The depreciation of 2.61%, and the Singaporean currency also depreciated by 1.12%. In the environment of the RMB in the environment of China -US negotiations, the appreciation trend was originally taken. After the rapid depreciation of May in May, it was still at a parity and only slightly depreciated by 0.58%.We observed that the People's Bank of China obviously had no intention of detonating the exchange rate war. The depreciation of the letting go in May was only to relieve the distortion of the high exchange rate during the Sino -US negotiation process, allowing the RMB exchange rate to synchronize with other Asian currencies.

In addition, after the level with a depreciation of nearly 7, we have seen that starting from May 13th, the People's Bank of China has set the annual price of the RMB exchange rate announced by the daily announcement of the daily announcement at the expected price of the market. This is the since this year.The long -term definition policy operation will also be locked within 2%in the fluctuation amplitude of the shore.

The People's Bank of China has also adopted the operation of the offshore RMB blocking but depreciating and speculating. The Hong Kong Bank's interbank interest rate was demolished. The one -month HIBOR interest rate jumped by more than 1 percentage point from 2.8%in early May, and rose to high at the end of last year to the end of last year.In front of the door of 4%, it is clear that the People's Bank of China has tightened the supply of RMB in Hong Kong, blocking the speculation of the RMB to avoid excessive depreciation of the RMB.

Pan Gongxuan, deputy president of the People's Bank of China and the director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, delivered important talks on May 19th and Sunday evening, emphasizing the confidence to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, and severely crack down on illegal acts in the foreign exchange market, show the central bank of the mainlandRegarding the strong determination to control the foreign exchange market transactions, it also extinguishes the strong expectation of the market for the RMB exchange rate.

From the trend of the RMB exchange rate in May, we can see a few important messages. First, the Sino -US trade negotiations are still continuing. The central bank has made a rapid depreciation of order to correctThe estimated RMB exchange rate seems to have come to an end for a while, and the negotiations between China and the United States are still under the basis of rationality.

Secondly, the depreciation of May has not caused the fugitives of funds. Compared with the market atmosphere of the two challenges of 7 times in 2016 and 2018, this time, there is no panic atmosphere. This is an important representation of the stability of the mainland.Under the high pressure of negotiations, banks continue to promote the important foundation of financial reform and market opening.

Trump can reach a settlement with the G20 summit at the end of June and cannot judge so far.Operation, to master the progress of negotiations and warfare in China and the United States, and hopes that the late agreement can be completed early.