Sun Xingjie: US -DPRK relations have returned to the ＂Cold War＂ situation

Sun Xingjie: North Korea launched two missiles within a week, especially the second line of the mid -range missile for the second time. The United States is very likely to reverse US -North Korea relations.

Entering May, North Korea launched two weapons launch in six days, which was further launched as the launch of short -range missiles.On May 4th, North Korea launched a number of flying objects. South Korea believes that it is a new type of tactical guidance weapon. The North Korean side also confirmed that it is a large -caliber long -range rocket launcher and tactical guidance weapon.The US response is quite interesting.After the first launch, the Secretary of State Pompeo believed in an interview with the media that North Korea did not launch a ballistic missile, and Trump's response on Twitter was relatively mild.

On May 9, after North Korea launched two missiles with a range of nearly 500 kilometers, Trump believed that no one was happy with North Korea's behavior, and also believed that North Korea was not ready to negotiate again.

After the Hanoi Summit failed, the DPRK's diplomacy entered a bifurcation, and US -DPRK relations were entering a new reincarnation.However, unlike the US -DPRK's nuclear issues from the previous few times, the current US -DPRK relations have obvious logic of the Cold War.

If the US -DPRK relations are regarded as a reappearance of the Cold War, it may be a bit far -fetched. After all, North Korea and the United States are not a magnitude player, but it is undeniable that US -DPRK relations have distinctive cold war characteristics.First, the ideological confrontation between the United States and North Korea is very strong. It can be said that this opposition does not surpass the Cold War. As the winner of the Cold War, the United States has not changed itself and does not have the end of history as Fushan said.The basic ideological consciousness has strong continuity and inheritance.

Secondly, the confrontation between the United States and North Korea has not changed. The primary function of the US -South Korea Military Alliance is to prevent and check and check -in North Korea. This basic situation has not changed with the contact of the US and North Korea leaders.

Third, North Korea is still out of the world economy. Although the Third Plenary Session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Seventh Central Committee has made a national strategic focus adjustment last year, it does not mean that North Korea is integrated into the world market economy system.Fourth, the most important thing is that North Korea is actually supporting the nuclear. The long -range missile launch in November 2017 means that US -DPRK relations have a nuclear deterrent nature.

Since the easing of US -DPRK relations last year, Trump and Kim Jong -un have held two worldwide attention, but the basic situation of US -DPRK relations has not changed significantly.Of course, from the perspective of the diplomatic bureau, North Korea has a qualitative change and has formed a relatively active diplomatic atmosphere. However, the diplomacy still needs to serve national interests in the end.Under the basic structure of US -DPRK relations, is diplomacy resolved to the North Korean nuclear issue or the realization of the interests of their respective national interests?The fundamental logic of the Cold War is to survive. Through a long strategic game, the Cold War has the characteristics of systematic confrontation and represents the ultimate test of life and death.

Systematic confrontation is the most typical during the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union. Does the US -DPRK relations also have such characteristics?

Before supporting the nuclear, North Korea had limited chips and could not play a nuclear military game with the United States. After 2017, North Korea was no longer a little brother in the system, but was alone. At least North Korea's self -awareness was a military power.As a result, North Korea is increasingly considered or presented to the characteristics of the same game with the United States. It is not to say that the problem of nuclear is a problem between the United States and North Korea, but because of nuclear weapons, the relationship between the United States and North Korea is getting more and more.Have strategic equality.North Korea itself is a system. Of course, North Korea must also withstand multiple pressures from the international system.

The Cold War is not a purpose, but a state. The end result is a zero -sum game. One party defeats the other.Therefore, survival is the first priority of the Cold War. As for economic prosperity, it is the first -class goal.During the negotiations of the United States and North Korea, Trump continued to emphasize that North Korea has huge economic potential, and if North Korea has no nucleification, it will become a prosperous country.But under the logic of survival, nuclear weapons are the purpose rather than the means.North Korea's survival logic is not only at the same tone as Trump's development logic, but it can also be said to be a chicken and duck.

Under the Logic of the Cold War, a fundamental dislocation in the US -North Korea game is how North Korea, which is self -contained, confronts the international system, and how to resist the political, economic, military, ideological and other pressures contained in the system.EssenceThe game structure of the Cold War of the United States and North Korea is not only not equal, but also deformity. The survival of North Korea, especially the survival of the country, has been protected by nuclear weapons, but it is difficult to achieve development.Survival will be seriously challenged.

The United Nations Food Program believes that 10 million people in North Korea are in danger of malnutrition. Without international humanitarian rescue, the survival of the elderly and children in North Korea will encounter great challenges.

North Korea launched two missiles within a week, especially the second line of the long -range missiles.In addition to testing Trump's patience, it is more important to release information to the United States: if it does not ease sanctions against North Korea, North Korea will reverse no nuclearization, including restoring long -range missile launch.Under the situation of the Cold War, the United States is likely to reverse the US -DPRK relations; although the door to the third leader of the United States and North Korea is not related, Trump believes that North Korea has no sincerity meeting.

The DPRK Diplomacy has fallen into a deadlock, and the future prospects will prove that diplomacy is only an episode and means of strategic games.Neither Trump nor Kim Jong -un could send hope that there must be results in the North Korean nuclear issue.The result -oriented diplomacy of the United States and North Korea will gradually shift to risk -controlled diplomacy.Of course, diplomacy does not mean that the summit must meet, and you can have a diplomatic game without meeting.

(Note: The author is Deputy Dean of the School of Public Foreign Diplomacy of Jilin University. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.