Author: Aaron Black Source: Washington Daily
No matter what you think of Trump's continuous upgrade of the China trade war, he does not match the facts of the trade war.He repeatedly pointed out that China will pay for tariffs, but tariffs are not operated at all.They are taxed for imported goods and paid by importers in the United States.After that, they usually increase the price of goods and pass the increased cost to consumers.
This is the truth that the White House economic consultant cannot avoid.
When the National Economic Commission director Larry Kudlow was interviewed by Fox News on Sunday (12th), he was asked about Trump's false remarks on tariffs on Trump.
Wallace said: Riley, that's not true.It is not China, but an importer of the United States for improving tariffs.Kudlo replied: said yes.In fact, both sides have to pay.In this case, both parties will pay the price.But this answer is not enough for Wallace, so he continues to ask.
However, the tariff is that China has not paid any fees in imported goods.
Kudlo once again acknowledged that Trump said it was wrong, and he said: No.However, tariffs will cause China's export market to shrink and the domestic economic output value is damaged. The products they need will be mdash; MDash; Wallace interrupts Kurdlo again: I can understand this, but the president said that the tariffs are by China by China.Buy.China may face the consequences, but the tariffs are paid by American importers and consumers, right?
Kudelo once again acknowledged Wallace's point of view, but tried to justify that China would also suffer losses because of the decline in exports. Yes, to a certain extent.Yes, I don't deny it.I repeat, both sides will suffer losses.
Trump seemed to realize the conflict between his staff's words and his speech. He published a tweet in the morning on Monday (13th) to change his position slightly.He originally called China to pay for tariffs, but now it is said that the real purpose of tariffs is to encourage American merchants to avoid purchasing Chinese goods.
If you want to avoid paying tariffs, you can import it from a non -targeted country or buy in the United States (this is the best idea), that is zero tariffs.
However, Trump could not help but attribute the relatively strong annual economic growth of the United States in the first quarter of the United States to his previous tariff policy.He wrote on Twitter that 3.2%of economic growth was unexpected, and China's tariffs paid were very large.Some people just don't understand!
And Trump's person who did not understand obviously included Kudlo.
In another part of the above interviews, Wallace presented forecast data on the impact of trade war on the US economy to Kudlo.Although Kudlo has different opinions on data, it still acknowledges that the trade battle has led to an increase in U.S. unemployment rate and economic damage.
He said that we estimate that GDP (GDP) will decrease by about 0.2%, but the US GDP will reach US $ 20 trillion, which is very small.
He also added: I think this is a risk that we should also be able to bear. It will not significantly affect our economy. With this small economic consequences in exchange for the possible improvement of the US trade and exports, the export market is more open.is worth it.
Having said that, 0.2%GDP is not really small. In our total economic value of $ 20 trillion, it is equivalent to about 40 billion US dollars, which is lower than other forecast figures proposed by Wallace, but it is still the annual economic economy, but it is still the annual economic economy.A large piece of MDASH; mdash; about 7%.Remove this part, the original 3.2%GDP growth in the United States will drop to 3%.
Another macro issue is how much the trade war on American consumers is.Although some claims that tariffs will not affect consumers, the data should let people dispel this idea.In recent years, most of the consumer price index (CPI) of most major consumer products has steadily declined. However, since 2018, CPIs, which are affected by tariffs, have risen sharply.
The focus of this article does not mean that Trump's trade war is essentially bad, but Trump's general distortion of the trade war.He is now denied by his chief economic adviser.Kudelo acknowledged that both parties would pay the price, indicating that the United States would suffer losses and was suffering.He said that this short -term sacrifice is part of the long -term game.
However, Trump insisted that he also won a short -term victory.The problem is that he doesn't seem to understand the rules of the game.
