Joeyd: What is the reason for the change of trade negotiations?At present, we should actively strive for a trade agreement on the basis of adhering to the bottom line.

In the Sino -US trade war disputes, the negotiations in May were twists and turns.Before discussing how to take the next step, you should first review it.

Trump's sudden Twitter on Sunday

Twitter Twitter, Sunday (May 5th), said that the tariffs imposed on US $ 200 billion in US -US transit goods were raised from the original 10%to 25%.The news came, and many people were very surprised.what is the reason?For a while, there were divergent opinions.

I think there are five reasons: First, what may happen to make him irritable.From now on, according to the United States, China has agreed to fix some commitments in the form of law, and then the Chinese side expressed unwilling to do so.From our perspective, this is just a question of text, but the United States believes that this is a serious believer, thinking that this is a fundamental change.Of course, increased taxes from this is an excessive response, but it is also necessary to objectively acknowledge that this is indeed a reason; second, this is his negotiation strategy.He summarized the four steps of the trading strategy in the book of the transaction, namely: proposed very high requests of RARR; repeatedly changing RARR; Link to reach a new requirement RARR; reached secondary results.

He often used business negotiation strategies to diplomacy. Whether it is to talk about the North American Free Trade Zone with Canada or Mexico, or to talk about nuclear with North Korea, it is so different.Well, it is not surprising that he uses this strategy when negotiating with China.Third, the US economy is better in the first quarter. The growth rate of GDP has reached 3.2%, exceeding expectations. Since the stock market fell in December last year, the first quarter of this year was gradually rising, which gave him a confidence.He believes that the US economy is very strong, and it will not have much impact on the economy even if the trade war.Fourth, he is very stubborn for some wrong concepts.The concepts formed many years ago, he will persist in the end.

Therefore, he repeatedly believed that China had a cheap trade deficit in China. He believed that China seized 500 billion US dollars from the United States each year, and that the 100 billion tax was paid by China.Many economists believe that it is ridiculous, and he always insists and does not want to give up.Fifth, from his perspective, it is possible to score politically. In the future, it can be said that it can be said to be the result of his pressure, and it is China's fault.This may consolidate his political basic market, especially to get key votes in swinging states, which helps him win the 2020 election.

There is a saying that Trump does not really want to reach a trade agreement with China. He just wants to deliberately provoke a trade war by picking up China.I think this is just a conjecture, there is no evidence to support this statement.In fact, in the past few months, the United States, like China, commented on the progress of talks.There is no reason to think that the United States intentionally does not want to reach an agreement.Now that the United States has raising taxes is a fact, but accurate understanding and understanding this matter is still meaningful for us to formulate the correct strategy and policy in the future.

On the basis of adhering to the principle, actively strive to reach a trade agreement with the United States

After the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He led the delegation to the United States, some people at home and abroad still speculated or fantasized that Trump would change his mind at the last moment and recover the life increase to China, but this miracle did not happen.From 0:00 on May 10th, US time, the tariffs imposed on US $ 200 billion in US -U.S.According to a pre -statement, China also announced that from 0:00 on June 1, 2019, the US $ 60 billion list of US $ 60 billion in US goods will be increased, and the tariff rate increases are increased.Increase tariffs.The United States announced the directory of the remaining $ 325 billion in imports from Chinese products to hearnation, and it may also tax in the future.

In this case, various opinions and suggestions have appeared in various domestic media, such as losing fantasies, preparing for struggle, fighting an epic trade war, etc. Perhaps this is to inspire morale.But more importantly, in response to the current situation, we should maintain calm and comprehensive analysis, start from the fundamental interests of China, and formulate correct countermeasures.I think the total tone of the countermeasures is to actively strive to reach a trade agreement with the United States on the basis of adhering to the bottom line.

First, reaching a trade agreement is beneficial to China's economy and China ’s reform and opening up.Because increased tariffs on each other will inevitably affect the foreign trade of the two countries.Although foreign trade has declined in the proportion of GDP in China, it is still very high.The decline in trade will not only lead to the decline in GDP of the year, but also lead to decline in investment, employment, decline in income, and even decline in consumption in the coming year.All of this will affect the steady growth of the economy.What is more valued is that from the perspective of medium- and long -term perspective, it will disrupt the layout of China's industrial chain and leave some industries to leave China prematurely.At this stage, our development level has not yet reached the degree of high -end industries.Reaching an agreement, removing the increased tariffs is conducive to China's steady economic transformation, thereby achieving high -quality economic development.

Second, reaching a trade agreement is conducive to maintaining the stability of the comprehensive relationship between China and the United States.As we all know, Sino -US relations have changed significantly recently. US officials define China as strategic opponents and put pressure on China in all aspects of economy, diplomacy, and military.The trade agreement cannot fundamentally change this situation, but there is an agreement that both parties can accept, which can indicate that the two parties can achieve cooperation and win -win through negotiations, which can slow down the degree of decline in the relationship between the two parties and create for further improvement of the relationship between the two parties.A favorable atmosphere.

Third, the objective foundation of the Chinese and American parties reached a trade agreement still exists.As Deputy Prime Minister Liu He said, the negotiations did not break and continued, because the objective foundation of reaching an agreement still exists.In addition to the above -mentioned conducive to the development of the Chinese economy, it is also good for the US economy.The increase in GDP in the first quarter of the United States was unstable, and it was caused by many accidental factors.Trade warfare hinders US economic growth, and may even drag it into decline, which will undoubtedly affect Trump's 2020 presidential election.Therefore, hoping to reach a trade agreement is the needs of both parties.

Fourth, the three core concerns raised by China are reasonable and not an insurmountable obstacle. Especially the first two concerns are easier to achieve an agreement.The first concern is that China requires the cancellation of all tariffs to increase income. The second concern is that China ’s increase in the purchase of the United States must meet the actual needs. These are not substantial, and they can be resolved through negotiations.The third concern proposed by China is that the agreement of the agreement is more balanced and it is not unable to solve it through negotiations.Because this is actually caused by the differences between the social and cultural differences between the two parties, the two sides have different understanding of the legal status.The United States believes that the promise of China must be fixed by legal provisions, which is reliable and effective.

China does not agree to write every promise into the law, but it does not mean that China does not sincerely fulfill its promise.Of course, China can also take into account the requirements of the United States. On the basis of adhering to the bottom line, it can be mentioned in general to refer to the Chinese commitment to be realized by modifying the law.

Strive to reach an agreement on the basis of adhering to the bottom line, we must attach great importance to the Xi Special Conference during the G20 Osaka Summit, and make full preparations.Trump is different from ordinary politicians. He comes from the business community and still has the characteristics of many businessmen. He has paid more attention to personal relationships. He has always claimed that he has a good personal relationship with President Xi.At the same time, he liked any agreement to be filmed by him.Judging from the historical experience of our admission negotiations or important foreign negotiations abroad, the final stage of the final stage of the negotiation is finalized by the Supreme Leader's negotiations.Therefore, it is necessary to make full use of the Xi special meeting to fully explain the three core concerns of Trump, especially for the third concern, indicating that we implement the sincerity and related measures of commitment, indicating that this is related to national sovereignty and dignity.

Although the leaders' meeting does not necessarily guarantee that the agreement can be reached, at least more than the conventional approach (that is, the provisions of technical officials, the leader only sign) is more likely, especially in the current situation.

Reasonable and favorable, There are festivals

Of course, it is not necessary to say that it is not possible to discuss the reason or keep the bottom line, but it does not mean that it is necessary to say that it is a better choice in the current complex environment and should be strive for.At the same time, you should also make all kinds of preparations, especially the following points.

First of all, the trade war is mainly to increase taxes on each other. In the United States increased taxes, it is necessary for us to counter.However, we should not take the initiative to expand to other fields. For example, some people say that they want to sell US Treasury coupons and stop buying American Boeing aircraft, agricultural products, etc. These suggestions are not desirable.Because once you expand, the United States will also countercroof, so that the harm of each other is endless.Movement of tourist attractions and catering outlets hung a slogan, saying that 25%of tariffs on American guests should be imposed. In addition to venting their emotions, there is no meaning, and it should be discouraged.Inciting nationalism, this style should not be long.

Secondly, we must focus on our own things, first of all, to persist in reform and opening up.The matters promised before, whether there is an agreement or not, must continue to be implemented.Can not easily overthrow the previous commitment, otherwise you will not have trust in the international community, but also damage the prospects of China's economic development.At the same time, we must implement the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, maintain economic growth in a reasonable range, and prevent systemic financial risks.In particular, we must pay attention to preventing the risk of foreign investment and lending.

In the end, China believes that before signing an agreement, modifying the text is not a violation of a commitment, which is of course right.But from another perspective, why not propose the balance of text early?Can our decisions be improved?I think it should reflect on this so that the future decision -making process should be more scientific.

In short, in the face of complex situations, changing situations, and complicated factors, we should maintain a sober mind and objectively analyze the various possibilities of trade negotiations.Decision and implementation will be implemented.

Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view