Zhang Jingwei: The weakness and stubbornness of the Sino -US trade war continued

China's weakness and the stubbornness of the United States may continue for a long time.(AFP)

The high -level trade consultation between China and the United States has been in the 10th round, which is almost close to the finalization of the agreement.Other U.S. -US $ 300 billion of goods and tariffs will also start.This means that President Trump is fulfilling his promise that the United States will impose a 25%tariff on all imported goods from China.

At the time of the United States, China still sent a trade delegation to the United States to participate in the 11th round of high -level trade consultations.After this round of trade negotiations, Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council, accepted an interview with the media, stating that the Chinese position was stated that the negotiations were not broken.Liu He also pointed out the three differences between the two sides: China opposes all tariffs and trade procurement figures to meet the actual situation and improve the balance of text.Of course, Liu He also emphasized that China will not give up on principles.The positions of Chinese officials (Ministry of Commerce) and official media (People's Daily, Xinhua News Agency) are also gentle and reasonable.The former emphasizes that we have to take countermeasures, while the latter emphasizes the need to pay attention to the core interests of both parties.

Compared with the tricks of the Sino -US trade war last year, China is now moderate and weak, and the United States is forcing stubbornness.However, in the face of the US seizure of moral system, China is regarded as the responsibility of disappointment of dismissed negotiations, and China has also given reasonable attacks.The three differences between China and the United States announced by Liu He highlight that there is no fault in the negotiations between the two sides.After all, the United States increased tariffs in the negotiation process, which is equivalent to the change of the United States.In addition, before the agreement was finalized, it was not possible to adjust it.The United States has renewed trade and war weapons, and China continues to negotiate, which also shows that China is unwilling to confront the United States.

The United States stubbornly strengthened the international community's awareness of the US extreme pressure negotiations, and China showed the sincerity of China to the international community.The subsequent countermeasures in China have also become logical.Judging from the logic of the China -US negotiations, the strong and weak strategies of the two sides are in place, each with its own advantages.

Observer is concerned about the substantial issues of strategic strategy behind the negotiation strategies of the two countries.From the White House to Congress, from think tanks to the media, from enterprises to folk, rarely reached collective conscious anti -China consensus in the United States.The traditional Zhihua School is changing its position. Even old Chinese friends like Kissinger have emphasized that it is difficult for Sino -US relations to return to the past.

From the 2017 version of the US National Security Strategy Report stated that China is a strategic competitor, to the recent emergence of the Sino -US civilization conflict theory and civilization contest theory, highlighting the United States has regarded China as a cold war opponent beyond the Soviet Union.Jin Na said that the United States and the Soviet Union belonged to Western white and did not belong to a civilized conflict.

If the United States has formed anti -China consensus, the cognition of the United States from all walks of life is a bit disordered.First, some people think that the in -depth interests between China and the United States will not reverse. The US trade war and changes in China are just anxiety and stress reactions to the improvement of China.Reverse, the United States is not a simple strategy for trade in China, but strategic adjustments. Even if China and the United States do not have a battle, the United States will take various measures to force China to develop space and force China into a three -current country. Third, some people think thatThe contradiction between China and the United States is the episode of the Trump era. If the US party rotates, Sino -US relations will return to the past.

The first view allows China to have fantasies about the United States. As a result, it is a strategic compromise to meet the short -term interest demands of the United States, such as increasing the purchase of trade disputes over the United States.The second point of view has triggered two extreme stances. The tough people believe that China can not be able to show weakness to the United States. The pessimist believes that China does not have the strength to compete with the United States and must yield to the United States.The third point is that it is expected to be the presidential election of the United States next year to crack the current crisis.

China's contradiction in the United States has highlights that China is not ready to become a superpower like the United States.On the other hand, the Soviet Union is to compete with the United States to publicize public ideology, and by establishing a national group's way, it is confronted with the United States with the surname of surnames.The process of China's growth into the world's second largest country and the largest trading body is actually a reference to the practice of the Western market economy.The United States -led Western world also welcomes China to integrate into the world, and it has defaults to the rights and obligations of China as a developing country into the world.

The Sino -US game does not belong to the zero -sum game of the United States and the Soviet Universal hegemony, but the adjustment of China's rights and obligations after the rise of China after the rise of China and the Western world.For China, it hopes to continue to enjoy the rights of developing countries and the corresponding obligations in the global multilateral mechanism.From the perspective of the United States and the Western world, China's national strength determines that China is no longer a developing country, but should bear the same responsibility as the United States and Western powers.Two different demands have caused the dialogue between the two sides to not be on one channel: China is self -proclaimed in developing countries, emphasizing that it will not challenge the leadership of the United States. The United States believes that China should regulate itself in accordance with the high standards and strict requirements of developed countries.The core differences in the high -level negotiations between China and the United States are the two different views of rights and obligations between China and the United States.

The difference in ideology of China and the United States has enlarged the intensity of the game at the Sino -US trade level, and has formed a Cold War that the Sino -US is inevitably developed to the United States and the Soviet Union.

To examine Sino -US relations, we must pay attention to the real -time trade conflict and the reversal of the United States' position in China, but also to observe the strategic direction of Sino -US relations from a magnificent perspective.

Sino -US trade will continue for a long time while talking.No one will be naive to think that if there is a paper agreement between China and the United States, it will be fine from now on.Then continue to talk, it is a rational and pragmatic game process.Objectively speaking, Sino -US trade frictions have continued, which means organic connections in the interests of the two strong economic and trade interests.If China and the United States have no trade connection and entanglement, such a game of China and the United States can be more to shoot.

China's weakness and the stubbornness of the United States may continue for a long time.Let China and the United States have the entanglement of interests and the impulse to have trade friction between China and the United States, so that the two parties can compromise in the game, which is in line with China and the United States and global interests.For example, without last year's Sino -US trade war, why China has improved foreign investment legislation and domestic tax legislation.Similarly, without Trump's priority, the global trade pattern has changed deeper, such as the results of the Belt and Road Initiative and the efforts of Japan and Europe to build the world's largest free trade zone.

(The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society, a guest researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China)