Current affairs perspective
On May 9th, after the US unilateral tariffs were imposed, China Vice Premier Liu He still held up pressure and went to Washington to conduct the latest round of consultations. Although it was unsuccessful, it was a comfort without breaking the situation.However, the old hatred has not disappeared, and the new hatred is added. According to the United States, it will soon impose tariffs on $ 300 billion in Chinese goods, which cannot help but worry about the economic prospects of China and the United States.
In the Sino -US trade war, both sides have their own small abacus.Trump has repeatedly emphasized that it is not effective for the trade agreement to reach, because the United States has better choices, that is, to obtain real gold and silver by improving tariffs.They also believe that China cannot win the battle of tariffs because of too much trade surplus to the US.
Recently, the dazzling economic growth in the United States has provided the confidence of negotiations.China also has a tough attitude. As Liu He said after the negotiations, macro the United States cannot completely abandon the huge consumer market that the world is optimistic about China.In terms of micro, Liu He also said that China's medium and long -term economy is more optimistic about China's economy will maintain a stable and healthy development. Therefore, as long as you have confidence, you are not afraid of anything.
China also said that only the agreement that the United States is satisfied with is not called the agreement, which is called an unequal treaty.Therefore, even if China sincerely hopes to reach a trade agreement with the United States, I hope that this agreement is a middle point that both parties are not very satisfied but ultimately acceptable, rather than unilateral satisfaction that the United States is granted.In fact, there are other important chips hidden in the heart in China, that is, the United States is an election society.
Therefore, once the United States has a economic negative impact, it will directly affect the upcoming election.In addition, unlike China, the United States is a two -party politics, so the United States also has its own constraints.Moreover, those who are not afraid of wearing shoes are not afraid of wearing shoes. In the 1950s and 1960s, the great famine, and China, which maintains stable regimes, naturally has a stronger economic battle than the United States.All of these are small accounts between Mingli and dark in both sides.
At the perspective of the national policy, both sides actually have the motivation to resolve with negotiations, because both politicians of the two countries are clear.Even though the United States can obtain tens of billions of dollars from the negotiation rupture, it is not more important than a stable increase in a stable growth after all.In addition, the economic stability relationship is the absolute foundation of the good relationship between the political and other aspects of the two sides.Otherwise, the United States will lose an important helper and even establish an unprecedented strong enemy on anti -terrorism, the Korean Peninsula, and Iran.
Therefore, even if this round of negotiations failed, both the United States and China have released goodwill.Liu He recently stressed that the two sides have huge common interests. In the general direction, (China) does not look back, but look forward.That is to say, in a very specific text stage, the Chinese demand is an agreement of equality and dignity, not an alliance under a paper city.In addition, both sides need a negotiating negotiation that looks at least on the surface to explain to the country, and Trump likes to pressure the limit, and China also has a tactical habit of playing a war before the final negotiation. This is doomed to China and the United States.Trade negotiations must be a long tug -of -war.The two sides are destined to talk while fighting, which is a bit like the two sides of the Korean War entered the negotiation period to promote talks to increase the negotiation chips.
However, all these are small abacus. The real big problem is, how does China and the United States look at each other strategically?And related, how can the two sides limit the dispute within the field of trade, instead of spreading into a comprehensive confrontation?At the economy level, any move between the two largest economies in the world will drag many innocent people, and in the past 30 years, even if China -US relations are worse, the two parties are in trade, investment, technology, and technology.The high degree of integration and the dependence of the mutual economy in the industrial chain has always been the Dinghai God needle of bilateral relations.If the anchor of this most important relationship is decoupled, what impact will it affect the prospects of both parties? This is a more important issue than the economy.
As far as the differences between the negotiations between the two parties, it is also found that China ’s opposition on many issues is considered from a political level. In addition to the trade dispute, the United States has also comprehensively adjusted Sino -US relations in recent years.Incorporating China into the China Guide Treaty, re -evaluation of the Taiwan Strait relations, the right of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and the recent increasingly enthusiastic Sino -US ideological disputes have shown the danger of expanding the dispute between China and the United States from economic and trade to other fields.
In this case, the two sides should no longer commit a big mistake of the opponent's strategic intentions during the Korean War, because this is not only related to the relationship between the two countries, but also involves the trend of the entire world for decades.This is the real core issue that both sides should face.
The author is local literary and historical lovers
