Author: Chen Jingxiang

Because the 11th round of trade negotiations in China and the United States cannot reach any agreement, the United States has further put pressure on. Following the increase in tariffs on US $ 200 billion in Chinese goods last Friday, it has increased from 10%to 25%.A $ 100%tariff is also levied.

Beijing Speaking to accompany the trade war to the end: The State Council Customs Council announced on Monday that the US $ 60 billion list of US $ 60 billion in US goods will be increased from next month, and the tariff rate is increased, respectively, 25%, 20%or 10%, respectively.EssenceThe Sino -US trade war is heating up!

At present, the differences between China and the United States are not easy to compromise.Vice Premier Liu He said after the negotiations last Friday that the current trade negotiations between the United States and China have differences in some major principles, and China cannot be conceded in principle issues.

For the specific content of differences, the People's Daily disclosed for the first time in a review article of a bell signed bell. The three principles of the Chinese side in the negotiations are: 1. Cancellation of all tariffs; 2. Trade procurement figures shall meet the actual actual situation.; 3. The expression of the agreement text must be accepted by the Mainland people, and it cannot damage national sovereignty and dignity.Obviously, the first two points of the 3 o'clock are technical issues; the third point is not the simple trade agreement, but it is related to major political issues, that is, the Chinese face cannot be damaged, and the mainland people cannot be regarded as being signed by the United States by the United States.Alliance under the city!

How will the situation develop?Observing the Sino -US trade war, there are several points that should be paid attention to.

First of all, the trade war is not a hot battle to meet each other.Both sides are seeking wealth, not qi.

Now analyzes the Sino -US trade war. The consensus of the critics is that the United States only use trade as a starting point. In the future, there are scientific and technological wars, currency wars, and even international strategic thinking that the United States will curb China.But these are all post -words. What is currently on the table to solve is how the United States can narrow more than 300 billion US dollars of deficits that have appeared in China.According to a report on January 18 this year (China Offers A Path to Eliminal U.S. Trade Imbalance, Sources Say) pointed out that China has proposed to gradually increase US goods in 6 years, and the amount may be as high as $ 1 trillion. The goal isFrom 323 billion U.S. dollars last year to 0 to 0 in 2024, China and the United States were tied!

It is not easy to achieve this goal.The most valuable in the United States is high -tech products, precision instruments, etc., and the United States is unwilling to sell to China.If you buy other goods or consumer goods alone, it is difficult to achieve the target of zero trade!One of the principles of China in the negotiations above is that the number of trade procurement should be in line with reality, and that's what it should be.

Do not need to be too pessimistic about Sino -US trade war

China has a huge trade surplus with the United States, but the trade of other developed countries has recorded deficits, such as Germany (imported a large number of German cars and industrial machinery), Australia (imported Australian industrial raw materials such as coal, iron ore), Japan, South Korea, and evenThailand, Malaysia, etc.High -amount of trade with the United States to China reflects the lack of competitiveness in American goods.Trade is buying or selling, and aims to seek money. Unless one of them is unwilling to talk, it must be reached and there must be an agreement, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about the Sino -US trade war.

Secondly, the trade war is one of the main tasks after Trump came to power. It is not only China, but traditional allies have also become his goal!

In order to revitalize exports and make the United States stronger again, Trump has always used tariffs as weapons to try to solve the long -term trade deficit of the United States.In May last year, Trump ordered the study of up to 25%of tariffs on foreign cars and automotive components.If it is successful, it is bound to hit the Japanese and European automobile industry.In addition, Washington has continuously put pressure on Japan to open the agricultural product market as soon as possible.

To deal with traditional allies, the Trump administration will never be soft. In April this year, it was stated that the plan was planned to impose tariffs on US $ 11 billion in EU imports of imports from EU, and he also stated that he would punish the EU subsidies for air buses (Boeing competitors).

On the battlefield of trade, there are many enemies in the United States. China is not the only enemy. Canada and Mexico, which have the most close trade relations with the United States, cannot be exempted from MDASH; MDASH; the three parties of the United States and Canada have signed the New North American Free Trade Agreement led by the United States.

What I want to say is that the Sino -US trade war is one of the countries that the United States is trying to rebuild the global trade system and enhance the global competitiveness of the United States; in order to achieve the purpose, the United States must oppress other opponents.In other words, the United States is not only aimed at China.

Third, some critics deliberately dilute the impact on China and believe that the negative impact of the trade war on the growth rate of the Mainland GDP (local GDP) is only about 0.3 percentage points, which is a controllable range.

How much impact will the trade war on China?Obviously, if only 0.3 percentage GDP is limited to 0.3 percentage points, the impact is really insignificant.If this is true, why should the Chinese government be nervous, and on the eve of the U.S. proposed to raise the tariffs several times, they immediately issued information that was willing to negotiate sincerely, and deliberately humiliated the Chinese side in Trump's public speaking and social media many times. Beijing still swallowed her voice.To deal with low -key responses, people think that China is demanding in the United States!For 0.3 percentage point GDP, why should China be so low?

Do not politically and deliberately dilute the impact of trade and war

According to the PwC report, Sino -US trade frictions have influenced geometry on China's economy and enterprises?Calculated that Sino -US trade friction may lower China's GDP growth rate of 0.3%to 0.5%this year, close to the prediction of IMF (International Monetary Fund).Based on the total amount of GDP in 2017, the Sino -US trade war will probably cause 250 billion to 415 billion yuan to the Chinese economy.

However, in addition, the trade war will also lower the exchange rate of the RMB against a basket of currencies, and continue to make the renminbi bears the pressure of depreciation, accelerate the decline and speed of the stock market, and crack down on investor confidence.What the report is not proposed is that the devaluation of the RMB will trigger the wave of capital, impact the stability of the exchange rate of the RMB, and increase the pressure of financial risks in the Mainland.

Comments on the Sino -US trade war, we must seek truth from facts, and we cannot deliberately dilute their influence and impact with political correct thinking.If only 0.3 percentage points of GDP losses are really related to the loss of GDP, will the Chinese government be so nervous?

Fourth, although Trump said he likes to receive tariffs, the trade war has a great impact on China, and so on the United States, and the comparison between the strengths of the two sides is not one side.

For the United States, 25%additional tariffs are levied to all Chinese goods. It is difficult for American companies to switch to other countries to enter daily consumer goods instead (especially Chinese cargo prices and cheap and good food). As a result, American consumers will bear higher prices.EssenceThe United States is igniting around the world. If trade opponents are countered by increasing tariffs, the US economy will also be damaged.Trump often puts on a wins, your attitude of losing the inflammation is actually just a propaganda trick.

How much can China make a test to test the wisdom of leaders

The ace of the United States in the trade war is that its scientific and technological strength is still leading; the other is that its military hegemony is enough to overthrow the old system and establish another new game rules that are beneficial to the United States.This is where China and other countries are not available, so that they will concessions to the United States on key issues.

In the United States, Japan's surrender of Japan signed a square agreement, which made the yen appreciate sharply, and finally defeated Japan in the trade war in the trade war.What is most worried about China is now the ending of the trade war. If it signed another square agreement with the United States, it promised some far -reaching conditions.Hellip; In order to reach an agreement, how many concessions in China will test the wisdom of leaders.

The author is a senior media person