Future of the Trade War: How to position the core interests of China and the United St

Ye Shengzhou: China ’s retaliation and sincerity are sincere, and contradictions have not fell into a dead end.Both parties did not close the door of negotiations, and leaders of the two countries need to master the brake device in person.

Since February 2018, Sino -US trade negotiations have both tongue and swords and swords, both soft and hard, and talked and talked about it.When the final end of the game, it gradually entered a good situation, set off a climax, firmly focused on global sight, and made the capital market shocked.

Sino -US signing agreement in Osaka is optimistic

Lang Ping and Liu Guoliang are the world's top in whether they are athletes or coaches. I admire it.The ability to read the competition of the two international sports big coffees, and also taught young disciples to have this ability. Of course, this requires knowledge reserves, hard training, and perception.Reading and analyzing the key information of the Sino -US trade war these days, it is not difficult to judge: the signing of the agreement is optimistic during the G20 Summit of Osaka, but it needs to be pessimistic about Sino -US relations in the next six years.

First, China has retracted and has sincerity.On the evening of May 13th, although Trump warned in advance that he would not retaliate on his new tariffs, otherwise it would become worse, but China still announced the retaliation list according to the promise.China believes that this involves sovereignty and dignity, and must be retaliated without any two words; the announcement time is also carefully selected, before the United States scheduled to impose a 25%tariff list of $ 300 billion in Chinese goods.At the same time, the approval of the US -Merchants door in many central government media has increased significantly, but it is just a stack of positions and gestures. There are not many new information and new viewpoints. It may be needed, but it is not important.

Analyze the texts of the two announcements of the State Council's Tariff Committee. The three information that implies the information is more authoritative and more interesting.First, the execution time is very restrained and not equal.Starting from 00:00 on June 1st, it is 21 days later than the United States. The previous retaliation was 1 minute after the effective time of the United States.Second, the execution is very restrained and not equal.It is still divided into four gears, without all 25%, and the total amount is less than 200 billion US dollars.Third, the announcement of the trial method of the exclusion of tariffs on the United States and Canada is, of course, it is the relief of the relevant parties that the serious interests are damaged, and it is also sued that the United States is determined to hold a long -term war.

Second, neither the two sides closed the negotiation door.The 11th round of consultations ended, because neither side could turn sharply, concessions, and signed the alliance under the city.In an interview with the media after the consultation, Liu He insisted that this round of negotiations did not break. Now it is only the darkness before dawn.On May 11, the White House chief economic adviser, Kudelo, confirmed the following key information in an interview with the FOX TV station: 1. China invited Leitheizer and Mnuchin to visit China (pressed: 12 rounds of consultation).Invitation; 2. The 12th round of consultation time to be determined (prescribed: You need to run through video conferences, multi -round deputy ministerial -level running -in, and the chief representatives to discuss again); 3. The Sino -US dollar is expected to discuss trade issues during the Osaka G20 summit.

Both sides are a little tired and do not want to fight.As far as the Chinese side is concerned, it is too flat for a year and a half to spend trillion dollars in order to be too flat. As far as the United States is concerned, I also want to enter the bag to be safe. I can't bite China in one bite.You can also get fat and then bite.In the foreseeable future, the initiative is always in the hands of the United States.Trump's pursuit of re -election is currently an emergency, and after re -election, he will quickly find the other battlefield.Battle of the two armies needed to transfer troops, manufacture fighters, and recruited blood.Every day, he was excited and killed, and the iron body could not stand it. It was a fight.

Third, Trump is anxious to reach an agreement.Fortunately, he is a businessman and political amateur. He is good at calculating money.On May 6, he announced that the complaints on Twitter that increased tariffs were slow; on the 11th, he also pushed to warn China not to delay the negotiations.unfavorable.Although it was pressured to the Chinese limit, it also implied that the Chinese side ended the negotiation as soon as possible, and consolidated the eager mentality of the existing results.

On May 13, local time, the United States announced the fourth round of 300 billion US dollars taxation lists. After that, public consultation was around, and a hearing of hearing and the final response period of view was held. Trump could also decide or extend the situation depending on the situation.In other words, whether it is implemented early and variables, Trump just disguised the ultimatum to China: either an agreement will be reached within one month or the trade war is upgraded.

On the same day, when Trump was receiving Hungarian Prime Minister Olban, Trump threw multiple carrots cunningly, claiming that he had a very good relationship with the Chinese heads of state, and the US -China Summit was about to be held in Osaka.It is very successful.This means that even if the two sides can't talk about it, they will not deteriorate to the out of control. The heads of state of the two countries personally have the brake device, and the global capital market should not be too nervous and excessive reaction.

The core concern of the Chinese side is not a knot

On May 10, local time, Liu He emphasized the three core concerns of China in an interview with the media. In essence, the difficulty of the current negotiated card shell was disclosed: one is to cancel all the additional tariffs;Text balance.

The first question requires legitimacy and involves Chinese sovereignty and dignity.Without any room for concessions, the United States must respect, otherwise the trade war will be the end.That is, if an agreement is reached, the duties imposed on both parties may be canceled or the peer reservation; the Chinese side will never accept the cancellation of tariffs, the United States reserves tariffs; the U.S. will not accept the US tariffs, and the Chinese side does not have the right to retaliate.

It is not difficult to concessions in the United States. In the next decades, the United States is still the boss, and there are more ways to toss in China with means other than tariffs.Some scholars say that rare earth, US debt, and the Chinese market are the three ace (two small and one big) that China winning the trade war. It can be cheered as a domestic propaganda, but the operability is very small., And not only in the field of trading, a Taiwan issue will find N a trump cards, and it is bitter to tossing China.China should not teach people to make a handle, burn the fire, eliminate the front, and complicate the problem.

The second issue was that Liu He confirmed that at the Argentine G20 summit, China and the United States had consensively formed the number of trade procurement numbers and should not be changed at will, but did not say a specific amount.According to CNBC on February 22, people familiar with the matter said that in the seventh round of consultations, China agreed to purchase US $ 1.2 trillion products from the United States.

It is likely that China has reached an agreement smoothly, and the purchase quotation is too fast and too high.After the United States tasted the sweetness, it was considered to be deceived as fat sheep, and the price increased the price, in an attempt to slaughter, far exceeding the Chinese tolerance.There are two eclectic methods to solve: First, the agreed total purchase amount appropriately increases 100 billion to 20 billion US dollars. China buys more high-end chips, and the 5G industry is fully used.The average annual purchase amount.For example, plus 2-3 years, or even determining the amount of goods from the United States for the next 6 years (assuming Trump's re-election).

The third issue is also involving Chinese sovereignty and dignity. It cannot make the Chinese people feel that another China -Meiwangsha Treaty, which is bereaved and humiliated.There are two ways to go: one to increase Chinese rights, increase US obligations and responsibilities, and balance in terms of wording and form; or the other, delete one -way and compulsory requirements for the Chinese side, refer to China to join the WTO and negotiate with the United States with the United States.The precedent, the official agreement announced should not have secret clauses, and sign another secret memorandum to bring together the content and commitment that the two parties are inconvenient to disclose.For example, modifying the law can be expressed as: reform and opening up is the basic national policy of China.In order to further promote free trade, China voluntarily asked the legislature to revise relevant laws in accordance with the legal procedures by 2020.

The United States is finally awakened, and China is honored and fortunate

In November 2018, Kissinger left the truth when he visited China: Sino -US relations can no longer return, and you need to re -position.Indeed, it must not go back or should not go back.The behemoth of the second child and the rapid development of the second child cannot be blocked. It is impossible to make a fortune. Now it is impossible to make a lot of money.Power, intelligence and endurance.

The United States is finally awakened, locks the main opponent and besieged the interception. China should be honored and fortunate.

The so -called honor means that China has the strength and at least the potential to sit on the same way with the United States. Generally, the country does not deserve to be as big as the United States.Even if Russia is only a residual power, a first -class military shell packaging has a second -rate large country selling energy. The comprehensive national strength and influence have been farther away from the United States and China.35 -year -old Kim Jong -un will inevitably be pinched by the United States and China without forcibly supporting the nuclear.Because of his nuclear weapons and extraordinary conspiracy, he was qualified and had the opportunity to hold two summits with the US president within eight months, and the door to the third summit was also open.However, the gap between strength is too large. If you can't play in the United States, the Hanoi Summit will not scatter it.

The so -called fortunate means that the United States is late and crooked, and has missed the opportunity.Trump vomited many times. I don't blame the Chinese. I blame our predecessors. It is his rare and standard truth.In the year, Bush wanted to pull up his sleeves and China, 9bull; 11 terrorist attacks, the United States was seriously misjudgment, and the terrorism was listed as the first enemy of the United States and gave it to China's valuable ten -year strategic opportunity period.

In 2001, China joined the WTO, which is one of the most beautiful achievements in Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji.Chinese foreign exchange reserves soared from 165.5 billion US dollars in 2000 to US $ 3095 billion at the end of April 2019.This was done by the hard -working Chinese and unexpectedly in the United States.Trump used this thing to say that China has obtained 500 billion US dollars from the United States for many years MDASH; mdash; because of our money, China can be rebuilt. Without our money, they cannot do it.

Of course, the Chinese National Games is indeed good.If the United States was so tough as early as 2001, would China be more uncomfortable?If Hillary is the president, will China be more uncomfortable with all allies with Qiaoqiao and strength?If Trump throws good cards at the same time, such as occupying the heights of moral systems and playing human rights and democratic cards at the same time, is China more uncomfortable?If Gee Wing Godfather Bannong is also the chief strategic consultant of the White House, will China be more uncomfortable?Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 and has been severely sanctioned by the United States and Europe. It has been given to China for three years of valuable strategic opportunities.Intersection

On May 8th, the US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Commission competed in clever competition. 40 years later, the United States held a hearing on the Chinese strategy.China does not have similar institutions and mechanisms, and openly debate Sino -US relations, thereby gradually forming consensus and actions.Some Chinese think tanks and researchers are just keen to figure out, cater to, interpret, and demonstrate the wiseness and correct decision of the CPC Central Committee. They forget the spirit of independence and freedom of Chen Yinque's life -long practice.The American politics, academic, and business circles have mobilized China's threats, and the Chinese academic circles need to think more about Sino -US relations and world patterns in the next three and fifty years.Humble work, trying to explore the problem of re -positioning of Kisinger.

Positioning China and the United States' core interests and seeking intersections

In economics, a well -known economic man assumes the maximum benefit of rational chasing material.Aristotle proposed that man is a natural political animal and can extend the three assumptions of the country's heads: first, the head of state chase power to maximize and maximize achievements; second, the head of state and / or decision -making team is enough rational and smart(There will be a mediocre and corruption head, such as South Korea and Brazil, but its decision -making team is not bad); Third, the interests of interests are diverse and need to be selected (such as national sovereign dignity than economic interests, core interests higher than peripheral interests, long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and long -term and period of timeShort -term interests, balance of global and local interests, etc.).

Regardless of whether you are convinced or willing, the primary goal and core interests of the US head of state and political elite are: the United States is always the boss, the first and the status is the first.The primary goal of the Chinese Headers and Political Elite is that the CCP must be governed for a long time, and the Chinese nation must be revived (the latter provides the former with legality and rationality).

As for how the CCP strengthens and improves governance, it is another topic that can be discussed repeatedly.Looking back at the history of the Communist Party of China, in just 28 years, it has been hit from the scratch, from small to small to prove that its survivability and adaptability ability is extremely strong.As long as the CCP is in power, it is socialism with Chinese characteristics, and it may not be engaged in traditional socialism.When the CCP's two lives and deaths and deaths, he successfully made a major amendment to the political and military theory and economic theory of traditional socialism. The first time was that Mao Zedong advocated rural surrounding cities, and the second time Deng Xiaoping advocated a socialist market economy.Whether there will be a third major amendment in the future, whether the national governance system and governance capacity modernization will force the Chinese Communist Party to achieve the complete transformation of the revolutionary party to the ruling party, and whether to start the political system reform, it takes time and motivation.Looking at this problem, you may wish to be patient, believe in the future, and believe that the waves of the Yangtze River push forward.

During the Osaka G20 Summit on June 28-29, China and the United States need to strive to sign a trade agreement, but for the two parties, $ 1 trillion is not a big deal, less than a year of GDP.May wish to discuss Sino-US relations and world structures in the next 30-45 years when the head of state is one-on-one, and strive to reach a framework consensus early.China can be alone and directly to Trump Liangming with the cards, passing five key information:

First, the United States is always the boss. China respects the status of the boss and the international rules that leads to the formation of the United States. There is no ambition and ability to replace.

2. China's goal is the second child. After 30-45 years, G2 (that is, the United States) govern the world, and achieve stable dual hegemony for 100 years or longer.

Third, in order to achieve the above goals, the United States and China will suppress and eliminate any third country to enter the first group; if there is a third country rushing to the US -China pinch, it is not lucky, then with this entry coupon.

4. Regardless of the ending of the strategic contest, as a responsible country, a hot war or nuclear war cannot occur between China and the United States.

5. The US presidential election is the US internal affairs.But as an old friend who does not know each other, China is re -elected by Trump.

Specifically, China acknowledges that the United States and China have entered the trap of Xunxione, and are willing to show their sincerity. In the next 30-45 years, the tests that are defended into a big country can be divided into three stages.

In the first stage of 10-15 years: the US strategic attack, seven points attack and three points.Despite the tests of various means, China can't resist, blame itself without ability, and be eliminated; China will not be clear, and the United States will have done so.

The second stage is 10-15 years: the US-China strategy is stalemate, five-point attack and five points.China actively participates in formulating and improving international rules and contributing more international public products.

The third stage is 10-15 years: the US-China strategy integration, three-point attack and seven points.If China has been under pressure in the United States for 20-30 years, China not only has not collapsed, but also grows strongly, then China is eligible to participate in the leadership world.

The United States continues to be the world police, and China has no strength and willingness to be the boss.The boss is also a double -edged sword. With the national strength of the United States, the support of the United States is now struggling and garrisoned everywhere to form a huge financial burden.China may wish to be a world assistant.The reason why it does not set for 30 years is that China should not wish to set goals and rhythm according to the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China.

China and the United States have formed an alliance against Japan in the World Anti -Fascist War and won the victory; the enemy who died and died on the Korean battlefield; and due to the common strategic interests of the anti -Soviet, the huge differences were abandoned, and the ball was promoted with small balls to warm each other.In the next 10-15 years, China and the United States are competing for comprehensive competition.Even so, China and the United States still have a lot of room for cooperation, such as non -diffusion, anti -terrorism, humanitarianism, climate change and other international peace, security and development issues.

There are no eternal enemies, no friends forever.The world is not black or white, as well as half black and half white, not black, white, black, and white;China is not self -masochism, and will not ask others to toss itself; China is not paranoid. Since the United States has repeatedly tossing, you may wish to think in other places to strive for the largest number of benefits.The narrower goes.