Author: Jin Canrong
China is actually not afraid of the United States in trade issues.
Several scholars and I have deduced that the trade war is best not to fight because both defeats; but if they really play, China will win. Many people may not think of it. Trump himself may not expect.
Trump, it is estimated that the United States elite also believes that the basic facts are beneficial to the United States on trade issues.
In 2017, there were US $ 530 billion in goods trade between China and the United States. According to them, the United States only sold US $ 150 billion in goods in China, so they feel that they have lost more than $ 376 billion in the United States.Therefore, it feels that China will have a greater loss in China.
But the fact is not the case, they deceived themselves.The actual situation is that the United States does be sold directly to China for $ 150 billion in goods, but through Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia and other regions, the United States is indirectly sold to China in the form of re -export trade.Not counted.
He calculated that the goods sold to the United States through Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Australia were calculated in the United States. They adopted dual standards. The reason is also very formal MDASH; mdash; the principle of origin.It is just that he has counted the goods in China in China, including the products sold through Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and other regions. He regards these places only as a transit station;
In the commodity in the United States, he regarded Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia and other regions as middlemen who earned differences, and he didn't care about it.Therefore, this statistical ledger, from the beginning, has given it less than 100 billion (USD) for itself.
In 2017, China and the United States were sold to US $ 530 billion (commodity) to the United States, but the United States was actually selling $ 25 billion (product) to China.Then trade is not only commodity trade, but also service trade.The total service trade of China and the United States last year was $ 118.2 billion.
But in service trade, the United States is a $ 54.7 billion surplus.What concept?Through service trade, the money made by the United States last year was basically nearly 90 billion US dollars.Therefore, (commodity trade) over $ 250 billion and (serving trade) 90 billion US dollars. In fact, the United States made 340 billion US dollars earning money in China last year.
China has a trade export of about US $ 30 billion in trade exports to the United States, US $ 530 billion in commodity trade, adding up to $ 560 billion.Therefore, the real gap between (Sino -US trade deficit) should be the difference between 560 billion and 30 billion, that is, 220 billion US dollars, not Trump's $ 376 billion.
China does not deny this deficit, but there is another problem. Most of the goods exported to the United States are processed trade. Many of the products are foreign companies, and more than half of foreign companies are American companies.
For example, iPhone is produced in two bases in Shenzhen and Zhengzhou. After the completion of the production, it is sold to the United States. This is considered to be exported by China. In fact, the production and processing iPhone can only make Chinese companies earn a little money, but they are counted in China.
Therefore, the conclusion is that the trade interests of the two parties are the same. This account is to kill the enemy a thousand and damage one thousand by themselves.Then Trump first scared China to levy a $ 50 billion (commodity) tax, levied $ 100 billion (product) tax, and then began sanctioning ZTE.
Sancing ZTE is equivalent to a warning blow on the battlefield, that is, telling you that you have weaknesses. If you want to attack all the time, you will finish it. I hope you will retreat.The crackdown of ZTE was a warning to China. In addition to the traditional trade war such as taxation, the United States also has a brand -new field to use high -end chip cards in China's neck.
But I guess Trump was considered clearly and dared not to fight.
Why?US high -end chips are indeed the best in the world. Mid -end chips include South Korean Samsung and Taiwanese companies. The high -end high -end is a little bit in the Netherlands and Japan. The US high -end chip accounts for 90%.
The problem is that this high -end chip costs very high, so it must be sold at high prices.
The US chip company sold to China, and the net profit of the starting price is 90%. Those who have economic knowledge know that the net profit is 90%, and the gross profit will go to 200%.Only by selling high prices can chip manufacturers maintain high investment in research and development and form a cycle.And maintenance of this cycle is mainly the Chinese market.
Taking Qualcomm as an example, 70%of its chip market last year was in China.Chip is a product that cannot be sold directly to consumers. It can only be sold to electronic equipment manufacturers. American chip manufacturers are all in East Asia and Southeast Asia, and they are mainly in China.
In 2017, the total output value of the chip market in the world was US $ 440 billion, and China accounted for $ 260 billion.
Among them, 70%of high -end chips in the United States are sold to the Chinese market. Countries in the Middle East cannot use so many chips. It is unrealistic that it is unrealistic that Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, South Pacific, and Latin America.
Europe has its own (high -end chip), and Japan has its own (high -end chip), so its (US high -end chip) market is all in East Asia, while South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam in East Asia, then counted as Singapore, India, add up to add up, add up to it, add up to it, add up to it, add up to it.Only 30%, 70%are in China.
So if Trump really does not sell high -end chips to China, American chip manufacturers will close in large quantities.Chip manufacturers have invested a lot, and then 70%of the market gave up. Do you say you want to go down?
And the failure will occur twice, because the closure of the high -end chip manufacturer will definitely bring Wall Street. The US stock market is very high. This virtual high is mainly blown by high -tech stocks. Traditional stocks cannot be blown.
Therefore, once the US high -end chip is finished, Wall Street will be finished.
(Lack of high -end chips) In fact, it has no impact on China. It is nothing more than the slower industrial upgrade. Some particularly high -precision projects can't make mdash; mdash; in fact, there are still some high -end chips through various channels to flow into the country, so key projects are alsoIf it is not affected, the general project will affect a little, so use the middle (chip) to make up.Then China happened to take this opportunity to develop high -end.
After the ZTE incident, China's official internal spirit was to solve the problem with the spirit of two stars and one star.Even if the process of five years is slower, it can be solved after five years, which is a good ending.
In the United States, a group of high -tech companies fell down and collapsed with Wall Street.
But there are three cards in China that can play with the United States, two little kings, and one king.
What is Xiao Wang?
The first one was to completely prohibit the rare soil exporting to the United States.
All chips require non -ferrous metals. The raw materials of non -ferrous metals are rare earth. China's rare earth output accounts for 95%of the world, which is monopoly.
In addition, the quality of China's rare earth industry is very good, and other countries also have rare earths. However, the mining industry is not as good as China. The production is low, poor quality, and environmental pollution is more serious than China, so it is crowded by China.
If China is completely prohibited from exporting rare earth (to the United States), many things in the United States cannot be created, which will force the United States to minimize their rare earths, but this is not effective immediately. The demand is too large.There is a vacancies in the middle.
When the supply of rare earth in the United States has fully recovered, China's high -end chips have also been completed, and they can be exported to the outlook.
US Treasury bonds are another small ace.
China holds 2 trillion U.S. Treasury bonds and gets a chance (articles on U.S. Treasury bonds).
For example, when the financial crisis in 2008, U.S. Treasury bonds could not be sold for 3 months. The Chinese government stabilized its confidence, and the United States survived.At that time, if China landed down, the United States would be miserable.
What is the trump card?
The Big Ace is the market of American companies in China.
The US company in China came in early, and it came in just after reform and opening up. In addition to making money, it also accounted for many markets. Last year, the US company made more than 380 billion US dollars in the Chinese market, more than the United States trade with China.The company earns more than $ 20 billion in the US market, which is far away.
If China proposed that the market is equal, I don't sell so much in you, don't sell so much in me.
For example, GM Buick has a sales of US $ 42 billion in China last year and only US $ 39 billion in the United States. (Sales in the Chinese market) exceed the local area.If you restrict the mdash; MDASH; that is its largest market, GM's stock will be miserable.
For another example, Apple's sales in China last year were US $ 46 billion, the second in the world, second only to the United States, making Apple's market value first in the world.But China can completely start the Apple's market completely.
For example, when mobile phones in other countries are selling GPS in the United States, China requires Apple mobile phones to install Beidou. It is simple to not install it. It is very simple.
These three trump cards are not exaggerated at all.
The United States is arrogant now, anxious and arrogant.This requires the cooperation of Americans, especially the aggressive nationalist emotions in the United States will be beneficial to China.
If American companies lose the Chinese market, China is mainly due to China's comprades, agents and the like, not ordinary workers.
If there are 1.4 billion people in China, if the 1.2 billion people are hot, there are no problems with the remaining 200 million people, and the relevant policies will be implemented smoothly, and then Chinese officials can find another way.
For example, if the Procter & Gamble is removed, Chinese traditional bee flower and other companies will come up.
It is actually very simple to deal with those American companies. It has depreciated. The domestic enterprises have been acquired. After the completion of the mergers and acquisitions, it continues to be reserved, so it is not difficult to deal with it.
China may be more open in some industries. For industries such as insurance, finance, medical care, the automobile industry has reduced tariffs. E -commerce will give a little bit (market) share, and the film market may be more open.
China can also do a little more in respect for intellectual property rights. Our leaders have had relevant promises. In this regard, I estimate that the action can be larger, and the protection of intellectual property rights will be better.Essence
This is normal. China must try to rationalize its behavior as much as possible, so try to rely on globalization, free trade, and multilateral order to rely on the United States to anti -globalization, protectionism, and unilateralism.
So Americans also pay attention to it. I remember US Secretary of State Mike Pempeo speaking in a think tank. He said that China now claims to support free trade, which is a joke.
Of course, the United States also sees this. Both sides must emphasize the banner, because the United States is now attacking, not only China, but also other countries.People accept it.
But it should be said that (advocating China -Europe to join forces) how many effects are, and don't expect too much.
The contradiction between Europe and the United States belongs to family members, and China is completely outsiders.It is as if Europe and the United States are sisters and brothers. The quarrel is too normal, but it does not affect their blood relationship. It is also one of them.
After all, China is an outsider, so don't count on that (China -Europe joined forces). The Chinese war in China is relying on itself. It is already good for Europe to not fall down.
However, China put forward this statement right. We must combine our behavior with the concept of general acceptance. This is a clever approach.
It's just that the effect should not be expected too much. It can make others not very good to refute. If you don't follow the United States, the effect is very good.
