Studies: Sino -US confrontation will defeat the two losses in Asia to gain profit

Tokyo Special Commissioner

The Japanese official economic research institutions reported on the influence of the Sino -US trade war. If the confrontation between these two major economies cannot calm down, they will lose both, while other Asian economies such as Japan can get the advantages of fishermen.

A report issued by the Asian Institute of Economic Research, a Japanese Institute of Economic Revitalization (Jetro), pointed out that the Sino -US trade war started from July last year to not calm.But so far, it has not been predicted to propose specific data.In view of this, the five researchers of the institute were calculated by economic geographical simulation models to judge how the trade war will have on what impact this trade war will have on all parts of Asia.

In the worst case, the research team, that is, China and the United States increased their income to each other by 25%of the import tax.The results showed that if this situation lasted until 2021, the GDP of the United States (GDP) in the United States would be reduced by 0.4 percentage points, and China's economic growth would decrease by 0.5 percentage points.

Tokyo benefits will be the most significant

As for other countries and regions in Asia, the overall as a whole will not be negatively affected, but can make profits.At that time, Malaysia's economic growth will be 0.5 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points in Taiwan, and 0.2 percentage points in Japan.In Japan, Tokyo benefits will be the most significant.This is because in order to avoid high tariffs, companies in the United States and China must find third trading partners, and Japan is likely to benefit from it.

The report is estimated to the impact of some industries.Among them, China and the United States are the most affected by the electronics and electrical industry.The report believes that the cost of freight of electronic products has always been lower than other goods, but once the tariff increases by 25%, the cost will be greatly increased.In this case, related companies have to find alternatives in other parts of Asia.In this way, the electronics industry in neighboring areas in China is also profitable.It is estimated that within three years, 12.4%of the US electronics industry will have a negative growth, while China is 7.5%negative.However, the East Asian electronics industry, including Japan, can achieve a 2.8%growth.

This report also evaluated automotive, food processing, fiber and clothing.Taking the automotive industry as an example, the United States has a negative growth than China. The United States is 1.7%negative and China is 0.8%.

The report said that although the Sino -US trade war may bring benefits to other parts of Asia in Japan in the short term, if it continues, the United States may intensify.Once the United States believes that it can deal with Asian powers such as China, it is very likely to deal with Japan and other Asian countries in the same way.If that step, economic recession will occur in many parts of Asia.

Therefore, the report summarizes that Japan and Asian countries must strive to stop the scope of the US -expanded trade war, and countries should further coordinate and pull the United States back to the multinational trade framework as soon as possible.