Society: Sino -US trade disputes in Trumps gambling road

Source: Economic Daily Society

Trump has opened a casino, so he dares to bet, and dare to bet a lot.

President Trump has launched a trade war on China since last year, basically a gamble.Since it is a gambling game, there is a lottery.The first layer is economical, and the goal includes the reduction of the US -China trade deficit, and removing all kinds of unfair and unreasonable trade behaviors in China; the second floor is strategic, the goal is to break the economic system dominated by the government, curb China's political and economicThe momentum of power expansion; the third layer is personality, which helps him to win re -election in 2020.As for the priority, of course, the first goal is to achieve the third layer of goal.

The first trick of Trump was a compression. Facing Chinese products and punitive tariffs, it was expected that China would immediately make major concessions and achieve all goals in one fell swoop.Although I was looking forward to falling in half a year later, Trump had no hope of this. In addition, at the end of last year, the U.S. stocks fell severely, and the US economy also had a weakened signal.Actual practice of target.

After nearly five months of confrontation between the United States and China, Trump suddenly announced that the punitive tariff rate of $ 2 billion of Chinese products has increased from 10%to 25%.What disputes have caused the break between the two sides, and it is still unclear.But it is certain that the conditions that China agrees to accept is definitely difficult to meet Trump's three levels of goals, especially for him who cannot give him great points in the election campaign next year.To the fierce stage.

Trump has always emphasized the absolute number of the US -China trade deficit. The reduction of deficit is a specific requirement that the United States can put forward and can implement it. China has also repeatedly promised to expand its procurement over the United States.However, improving punitive tariffs on Chinese products can also greatly reduce the US -China trade deficit. This is also the theoretical basis that Trump believes that the trade war is good and ease.In addition, if the United States sets the target amount of the deficit, it is equivalent to encouraging the Chinese government to coordinate the purchase of the United States. Instead, it will strengthen the Chinese government's control of the economy and run counter to the target of the United States to transform the Chinese economic operation system. Therefore, Trump is willing to give up thisThe goal that Xiang is at hand.

Trump certainly does not know that the trade war will not impact the US economy, but this can rely on the tax reduction policy and the Federal Reserve (FED) to reduce interest rates to support economic growth.Moreover, the US economy is still strong. In the first quarter of this year, the economic growth rate reached 3.2%, and the unemployment rate fell to only 3.6%in April, a new low in 49 years.Innovation high.Increasing tariffs will lead to rising prices and cause consumers dissatisfaction. However, the most obvious problem in the current US economy is that inflation is low, and high tariffs may receive the effect of chaos anyway.Trump has such a strong bargaining chip, and of course he dares to bet on this gambling game.

Secondly, the reason why many Americans oppose China's trade behavior is basically opposing China's economic operation system, especially state -owned enterprises can obtain low -profit funds from state -owned banks and enjoy the privileges given by various governments; China also implements a system of systematic systemIndustrial policy provides huge subsidies for key industries, such as the 2025 Chinese manufacturing plan, which seriously threatens the leadership of the United States in the technology industry.

In addition, more and more countries have begun to accept China's Belt and Road Plan, which is also conducive to the expansion of China's political and economic forces.Trump himself does not care much about this, but the White House Hawk, Trump's conservative supporters and Republican members insist on this, so Trump decided to let the negotiations break the situation, and he will never give in this aspect.Essence

Look at Trump's personal abacus.One year after the US -China trade negotiations, the consensus on Washington is the main threat of China that has become the dominant position in the United States; even if the two parties reached a trade agreement, the smiley face and handshake were maintained shortly.US Secretary of State Pompeo has traveled all over the world to warn the allies not to go too close to China; if any allies purchase Huawei's communication equipment, the United States will not share information with the country.At the same time, it is claimed that the Belt and Road plan is a debt trap and a predatory business behavior.The United States also restricts Chinese scholars' visas to the United States, and raised the controversy of China ’s islands.

Based on the increasingly negative views of the Chinese people, during the 2020 American election, whether it is right or left, they will whip China. If Trump will be soft in China in trade negotiations, how can he choose next year?It is impossible for Trump to win a lot of victory, and toughness has become his first and only choice.The economic prospects of the United States can bet, but his personal political future must not lose.