Turning in the Time Language
After watching it for a long time, former Vice President Biden finally announced the election. At least in the Democratic Party, the US presidential election in 2020 has been in full swing.Because of the continuous scandal since taking office, President Trump's positive prestige in polls has always hovered around 40%.
In the mid -term elections last year, the Democratic Party was able to turn over and take over the majority of the House of Representatives. Not only did it begin to investigate various formal investigations on Trump and its team, but also demonstrated the movement of American public opinion.In addition, the prosecutor Miller's recent report on the final investigation of Russia, although Trump has not colluded with Russia, it lists many obstructive investigations from Trump.Many Democrats have proposed a procedure to launch an impeachment president.Under such a unfavorable climate, whether Trump can be re -elected as president next year seems to have considerable doubts.
With my opinion, from time to time, the Democratic Party is obviously in the upper stage, and it is not a problem to get votes in most people in the presidential election next year.But from a very critical point of geographical interest, the Democratic Party is likely to still lose money.In other words, Trump is quite likely to repeat the results of the 2016 election: although more than two percentage points are lost in the public votes, the majority of the presidential election votes are still obtained.
First of all, there are issues of Democratic candidates.Although many rookies announced their elections. After Biden's candidates, the Democratic Party's two candidates currently have the highest popular candidates.The Democratic Party's population advantage is that the young voters are increasingly liberalized.At that time, if one of the two eighty -year -old people in the two -year -olds is competing with the 73 -year -old Trump, it is obviously not like Obama, who is in the same year, inspires the younger generation of Democratic voters.
What's more important is that since Trump took office, the trend of American populism has been in the ascendant, and Trump's policy policy is to continue to play a population.Various polls show that American voters continue to differentiate.Although the number of Democrats voters grow naturally, and non -party voters have increased their dissatisfaction with Trump, most Republican voters continue to support Trump.At least in recent election cycles, white people still account for the majority of American voters.And Trump's political advantage is to educate white and older white voters.
Although Trump's promise to white voters cannot be cashed at the economy to reverse the globalization and high -tech revolution, he insisted on building a border wall and adopted various measures to restrict immigration to meet these white voters against each otherLosing our American fear, therefore maintained his popularity among low -education white voters.
Looking at the results of the results of the mid -term elections last year, you can see the huge advantage of the Democratic Party. It is still concentrated in the cities where the east and west coasts and the population gather, and the Republican Party maintains a red base in the vast number of rural and outskirts.What is more thoughtful is the advantage of the Republican Party in the northern and central parts. Not only did it not decrease, but it increased significantly.In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and other states, the Republican Party has made great progress in southern Minnesota and northeast.
The US presidential election ticket system determines the institutional weakness of Democrats in the presidential election: the Democratic Party's voting advantages, most of which are wasted in Lanzhou, which has a concentrated population in New York, California and other cities.However, as long as the Republican Party wins with a weak majority in a few key swing states, it has won the majority of presidential votes.
Taking the 2016 election as an example, Trump won a total of 46 election votes of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania with a faint majority of 0.2%, 1.0%, and 1.2%, respectively, and destined Hillary's defeat.This represents more than 70,000 votes in these three states.In other words, as long as there are 80,000 voters in the above three states (less than six thousandths of the three states, and less than 60,000 tenths of the total number of voters in the United States), they reverse their votes.Hillary will be the president of the United States.The results of the mid -term elections last year showed that the situation of the 2016 election was completely possible, and even the Minnesota that Hillary had won 1.2%of the 1.2%faint majority may come back.
Even the Economist Weekly pointed out several times that the Republican Party also used many state governments and the Supreme Courts they controlled to increase the voting threshold of Democratic Party voters in various ways such as ID cards, voting time, and voting stations.EssenceThe most obvious example is the key Florida.In the mid -term elections last year, Florida votes voted to restore the right to voting after criminal criminals.However, the Republican Council controlled by the Republican Party has recently passed the bill, asking these release criminal prisoners to pay a large amount of fines before they can vote.According to the New York Times, there were 1.5 million criminal criminal criminals in Florida, most of which belonged to the vulnerable groups of the Democratic Party.In 2016, Trump only won the state for only 110,000 votes (1.2%), and the Democratic Party's unfavorable situation next year is evident.
The author is engaged in scientific research in North America
