Last Wednesday, the US delegation conducted a ninth round of negotiations in Beijing. The atmosphere was very good. Everyone in the photos opened with a smile. The US media that was released on the wind also predicted that when Liu He, the Vice Premier of the Chinese State Council on Wednesday, came to the United States.The last round of negotiations may announce an agreement on Friday and sign at the special practice at the end of May.However, President Trump suddenly issued a tweet of tax increases on the evening of the 5th, leaving the optimistic atmosphere dropped to the bottom of the valley. Why did the United States change so much?
Many people say that this is the last pressure on the United States, in order to reach the final concession of China, but this is not just that simple.First of all, the White House is not one of the iron plates. The Minister of Finance Mnuchin is a gentle school, and the trade representative Littichizer is a hardline. Mnuchin hopes to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible.The profit was made, but Littichzer insisted on seizing the opportunity to allow the Chinese economy to make institutional changes. It was previously negotiated by Mnuchin. Later, Littichzero was in charge of the influence on the president.Trump made the final decision.
Trump thought he was a master of negotiating. His consideration was beyond economic and trade, just like negotiating with Kim Jong -un's Hanoi. At the last moment, he was drawn by the negotiating table.The media is completely focused on the testimony of his personal lawyer, Kon. If there is a limited agreement to reach the United States and North Korea, there is no score, but he will lose points.Similarly, in addition to economic and trade gains and losses in the US -China negotiations, Trump must also have the demonstration effect of US -China relations at the same time, or even whether domestic politics scores.Beijing finally put it over pressure.
For Beijing, the most important thing is to lift punitive tariffs on Chinese products. This is the origin of the entire trade war.There is no loose mouth, because the United States believes that this is the most effective tool on hand and refuses to give up.
In view of that China often goes back and does not perform the agreement, the United States plans to cancel only 10 percent of the current two hundred billion US dollars in the current two special tariffs, but still retains the $ 5 billion percent of the $ 55 %.Until the end of November next year, the Chinese side did not faithfully execute the agreement.
If the agreement is signed, even the punitive tariffs are still there, and there are so many concessions, including the protection of smart property rights in the Foreign Protection Law, the establishment of an execution office to supervise the implementation results of the execution of the agreement, etc.The treaty, Liu He, who is in charge of negotiation, may blame the first.
Nowadays, the United States not only does not promise to withdraw tariffs, but Trump also impose tariffs to let the Chinese side get in a dilemma. If Liu He goes to Washington as scheduled, the content of the inequality agreement can be imagined; if the Chinese side does not go, he will return to the trade war.The consequences dare not imagine.Therefore, Beijing has been canceled to the United States. After fifteen hours of long exams, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the Chinese team is preparing to go to the United States for consultation. In other words, the China side still has to talk.
Even if the United States and China have reached a certain agreement this time, with the mentality of the United States and China, the agreement will not be a stable state. Both parties feel that they will suffer.Cold War.
