Economic Daily News
Just as the consensus between the US -China trade negotiations was about to reach a consensus, the pig and sheep changed color when all circles predicted that the pigs and sheep changed.25%, even threatening will be included in the remaining US $ 30 billion of goods into the tariff scope.Although this move is in line with the Tiri style, the global stock market first fell, and the follow -up effect was more difficult to predict.
The US -China tariff war began in June last year and continued to heat up.So far, the United States has levied additional tariffs on Chinese manufacturing products with a value of $ 250 billion, of which $ 50 billion in tariffs is as high as 25%.Tariffs also increased to 25%in January this year.$ 20 billion accounts for about half of China's total export amount. Trump has threatened not to rule out that the remaining half is also included in the scope of tariff sanctions. Later, because the two parties started negotiations, Trump first announced that he would temporarily increase the tariff for 90 days.Later, when the negotiations expired on March 2nd, the negotiations rose unlimitedly, and no longer expanded the scope of taxation.
From this perspective, in fact, the United States has set off a war of tariffs, which has been highly connected to the negotiations from the beginning. When the negotiations are successfully suspended, it will continue to expand when it is not smooth.The reason why this time all circles below the glasses is the content of the two parties to date, especially in the past few weeks, the US Treasury Secretary's speech on the media has giving the outside world the feeling that the outside world has progressed smoothly and an agreement is reached.A magnifying surprise.
Yesterday's reversal may be based on two situations.The first is the use of the last blow of the negotiation strategy, forcing Beijing to concessions in the last few disputes; the second is that the negotiation card is serious.It is better to get the applause to fight against the tough guy first.At this moment, Beijing must also be digesting and evaluating Trump's true intention. However, past experience shows that the function of this special boxing method is unpredictable.At the same time, the Chinese negotiation representatives are forced to make mistakes. Therefore, the above situations may not be the real reason or the reason.
Rather than guessing that the United States' attitude reverses, it is better to look back at the US negotiation requirements.The United States has a variety of allegations of China, but the foundation of the US Capital Criminals in this tariff war lies in the foreign unfair trade measures regulated by Article 301 of the US Trade Law.This is a necessary measure to authorize the US President to take a legislation that forces the other party to eliminate it.At present, the United States has accused China's unfair trade behavior, including illegal industrial subsidies, illegal theft of intellectual wealth, technological and commercial secrets, mandatory technology transfer, and an important American technology through unfair systematic mergers and acquisitions policies.
The Battle of U.S. -China tariffs is the practice of U.S. tariff sanctions to force China to eliminate the above unfair trade behavior; the trade deficit talked about by the outside world is only a harmful by -product of unfair trade, not the main cause of negotiation of the 301 tariff war.In other words, the focus of the US -China trade negotiations is never the trade deficit, but in the exit of industrial subsidies, stopping stealing intellectual wealth and technology.
This time Trump's specific reasons for his face are unknown, but from the above problems, it can be seen that even if the Chinese side takes tens of billions of dollars to expand the procurement of the United States and reduce the deficit, it is not the focus of the United States.The review report proposed at the end of November last year has pointed out that whether it is illegal subsidy, stealing intellectual wealth, or technology transfer, it is still ongoing. There is no sign of improvement. In addition, these issues are easy to make verbal commitments. It is necessary to convert it to it to be converted into it.The promise of the agreement is very difficult, and it takes time to verify whether it is implemented. It can already foresee the huge challenge of the US -China negotiations.Moreover, the Chinese side may not all agree with the problems of the United States, and if the impact of modified by the US side is great, it is difficult for China to meet the expectations of the United States at a time.
In any case, whether the Chinese delegation led by Liu He this week is to cancel the itinerary or go to Washington as scheduled, it will be a key indicator for judging the follow -up direction of the US -China negotiations;The group continues to set off according to the schedule, and there may be room for turning.The trade war has so far made many companies unable to eat, and even if this wave of negotiations is smooth, it may be only a staged recreation. Now this has changed. Enterprises accelerate the layout outside China.It's right.
