Zhou Hao: The observer of China and the United States is very clear that the confrontation between China and the United States will linger over the world economy for a long time.

When optimistic people are eagerly looking forward to completing trade negotiations and reaching an agreement this week, US President Trump's Twitter gave the market a loud slap.Trump not only threatened the current tariffs on US $ 200 billion from 10%to 25%, but also said that it would soon levy taxes for more than $ 300 billion in Chinese goods.

The market has plummeted to respond to the flying of the Black Swan.However, the observer of China and the United States is also very clear that even if the trade agreement can be reached, it is only a relatively peaceful tone for the short -term prospects of Sino -US relations. The confrontation between the two parties will linger over the world economy for a long time.And even if the trade agreement falls, the confrontation between China and the United States may seem more cruel, but it is not essentially different.Therefore, the results of trade negotiations are important, but it is more critical to accurately understand the position of China and the United States.

Judging from the timetable for trade negotiations, the trade dispute between the two parties entered the fierceness of the 25%tariffs of $ 50 billion in each other in July last year. Since then, China and the United States have announced a series of measures for tariffs.In the end, the United States actually levied tariffs on about $ 25 billion in Chinese goods, while the Chinese retaliation amount exceeded $ 100 billion.

After the official start of the trade war, China and the United States have also carried out various contacts about trade negotiations. However, before the official meeting of the two heads of state on December 1 last year, the trade negotiations were basically the secondary line.The expectations of the trade agreement are low, and the Chinese market has been hit, and both the stock market and the foreign exchange market have shown obvious signs of selling short selling.After the two countries reached a suspension period on March 1, 2019 on December 1, the trade dispute was roughly in the decline.

After the stable period of the suspension on March 1st, the two countries conducted several rounds of negotiations, and the various difficulties in the negotiations have also floated to the water one after another.Different interpretations of network attacks and intellectual property protection.These disputes were gradually resolved later. The more important thing was that the United States no longer adhered to the unilateral sanctions mechanism, but became an equal sanction mechanism. If the United States did not fulfill its promises, China could also propose corresponding sanctions.

After entering May, the focus of the dispute between the two parties is no longer a grand theme, but how much tariffs need to cancel the United States to express goodwill.The Chinese negotiation requirement is that the United States should return the tariff level to July last year, while the United States bargain on this issue.After entering this issue, the market thought that the two parties only discussed the details. In fact, the trade agreement has been roughly formed.However, Trump's sudden change means that trade negotiations will enter a new change. Trump said that the progress of trade negotiations is too slow. It is reported that China has revoked several concessions before the recent negotiations. This is complete.Angered the United States.So far, it is difficult for us to judge whether Trump has put pressure on the Chinese side through such a strategy. Therefore, whether the United States impose tariffs on Chinese goods this Friday will determine the short -term Sino -US relations tone.

However, the author believes that whether there is a trade agreement or not, the friction and cooperation between China and the United States will still be the theme in the future. In other words, trade negotiations and agreements are far from the end of Sino -US relations.

Looking back at the trade disputes in the past year, there are several feelings in the market. First, the comparison of power between China and the United States, the United States still occupies a clear upper hand, which is also an objective comparison of political, economic military and financial forces; second, the United StatesIt is impossible to ignore the rise of China, and at the same time, it cannot quickly curb such a trend in the short term; third, China will not make concessions on core issues, the reason is simple mdash; mdash; because concessions will only bring more concessions; fourth fourth; fourthRegardless of whether it is subjective or not, there are still many common topics and sharing benefits between China and the United States.

Such an intricate relationship, even if China and the United States can reach a trade agreement, it is difficult for the market to make an accurate and comprehensive interpretation, and if the agreement cannot be reached, the market will calm down.Since Trump came to power, various meetings between China and the United States have almost given up the practice of previous joint communiqués, and their respective interpretation has become a more recognized approach between the two parties. Such a new normal indicates that the internal eagle within the two countries hasThe influence of factions has begun to expand significantly.

From this perspective, if a trade agreement is reached, China may obtain a shorter external calm period, and for the United States, the trade agreement is only the first step. The trade agreement is used as the starting point to promote China's change.One of the core issues of the U.S. government in the next few years and the next few years, which is consistent with the fundamental interests of its own business interest groups.From this perspective, if a trade agreement cannot be reached, it will cause negative effects for both countries, but who will suffer greater real losses is actually difficult to say.

From the middle and long term, the actual significance of the trade agreement is very small. The core competitiveness of the two countries still determines the comparison of the strength of the two countries. From the current situation, China and the United States intend to turn the focus of economic growth to the national market. ThisIt means that the economic growth of the two countries will be more limited and directed for the spillover effect of the world economy.

But at the same time as economic growth, the interoperability of the financial market has become a link between the two countries. To some extent, such a bond may mean that the conflict will not be upgraded indefinitely, because the two countries need to maintain some power balance to maintain financialMarket stability.

From the perspective of China, facing the pressure of the depreciation of the local currency and capital outflow, China needs to attract foreign capital inflow through open financial systems and financial markets to stabilize its own international revenue and expenditure balance. From the perspective of security, China must maintain a higher water level.Foreign exchange reserves, and the vast majority of these foreign exchange reserves still have the form of US dollar assets.Therefore, although the renminbi is difficult to appreciate significantly, it seems that it is not optional.However, if you want to attract foreign capital inflows, you must give a reasonable outflow of foreign capital, which naturally causes the instability of the financial market. ThereforeFirst, but management capital accounts may be a must -have.How to balance capital control and reasonable flow will be one of the hardest bones in the next few years.

For the United States, creating more opportunities to enter the Chinese market for the interest groups of the country is a realistic and fundamental strategy.Compared with the past, the interests of the United States focus more on a service industry represented by the financial industry.Therefore, we can also see that China often needs to make concessions in financial openness, because this is basically in line with the interests of the United States.However, from the perspective of more long -term interests, the United States not only hopes that China can let go of the financial market access, but also to allow the free flow of financial capital, and at the same time allow US financial institutions to connect with the wealthy groups of China.However, it has to be mentioned that the rise of the China Eagle forces in the United States will cause the resentment and alertness of the wealthy group in China.

Generally speaking, in the issue of financial opening, China and the United States have common needs, but they have different focus. Basically, the integration of the financial ecosystem of China and the United States is difficult to avoid., And it is easy to put pressure on the financial system.

Therefore, even if the trade agreement is reached, the different fundamentals between China and the United States will lead to different interpretations of the trade agreement between the two countries. For example, on the issue of the opening of capital accounts, China will tend to express it as gradually open, but the United States willIt is likely that it is difficult to control.The market will not be able to think clearly because of this, and in the end, it can only be traded to have some simpler and direct issues.In the future implementation, I believe that there will be more problems and frictions, and the disputes in China and the United States will be unavoidable.However, once the dispute is upgraded to hurt the economy and financial markets, the two countries have the demands of cooling the dispute.Such a intricate relationship can only indicate that the competition between China and the United States is still in progress, and no one can easily win.The current deadlock between China and the United States is just a reality reflection that China and the United States are unwilling to make prematurely.

Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view