Zhou Maohua: Trump threatened to upgrade China's tariffs in the United States, the Chinese stock market fell sharply. In 2018, whether A -shares have been repeated, and how do you think of the impact of the Trump Black Swan on the market?What is the future policy trend of the central bank?
On May 5th, Trump announced in its Twitter that this week it will increase tariffs for US $ 200 billion in China -US commodities, and will soon impose tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars to enter the United States.This unexpected news reversed the optimistic expectations of the market's results of the Sino -US trade negotiations. After Trump issued a tariff threat, China is considering canceling the trade negotiations planned in Washington this week.In the tension, the market risk aversion was significantly heating up. On May 6, the three major stock indexes of the A -share market opened and dived, and the panic spread.Traditional risk aversion assets obtain capital inflows.
Why is the performance of the capital market so fierce?Mainly multiple favorable factor resonance.
On the one hand, market adjustment expectations.Relatively high, in the year, China's A -share A -shares overall showed unilateral upward trend, and A shares increased by more than 30%. As the domestic estimation was estimated to be repaired to a certain extent, some theme stocks dragged the fundamentals.For the factors, the market has long expectations for the domestic stock market adjustment.
On the other hand, the stock market fell six consecutive declines with the Trump tariff threat.Before May 1st, the domestic stock market was adjusted for six consecutive days, and the news of May was light. Investors were different in the trend of the subsequent A -share, and the market emotions were very sensitive.Threat, black swan impacts market emotions.
The impact of Trump tariff threats on the market in this round
First of all, from the perspective of the global market influence, Trump threatened to upgrade Sino -US trade frictions to promote global risk avoidance emotions.As the top two economies in the world, China and the United States, China and the United States economy are closely related to global investment and consumption. Sino -US trade friction upgrade will further drag the global economic recovery. Since the fourth quarter of 2018, the market has worried about the global economy's recession.If you do n’t go, as of now, there are still no shortage of interest rate cuts for the Federal Reserve.If Trump fulfills the full upgrade of trade frictions, it will exacerbate the pessimistic expectations of global investors in economic prospects, heating risk aversion, the short -term global stock market fluctuations intensify, and the unstable financial market has intensified.
Secondly, from the influence of the domestic market, reviewing the decline in the domestic stock market in 2018, mainly due to the superposition of domestic and foreign factor factors, domestic credit contraction and trade dispute resonance, which triggered the market pessimistic expectations and moved the world.The impact of tariff threats on the market tends to be short -term and exacerbates short -term market fluctuations. Subsequently, market sentiment will gradually stabilize, and the domestic stock market has not deviated from the slow bull track.It is mainly due to the impact of China's fundamentals stabilizing and policies loosely hedging trade friction upgrades; domestic economic and financial imbalances have significantly improved, and assets have no significant signs of bubbles; China's series of reforms and market potential release will help the medium and long -term performance of China's capital market.
The basic pattern has not changed.Mainly the policy effects of domestic reforms, tax cuts and fees, and the improvement of tax reduction. The domestic credit environment has improved significantly. The policy effects of a series of benefit SMEs will gradually appear. Domestic demand stabilizes and recovers.More biased towards market emotions.In addition, the continuous advancement of the market -oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate has significantly enhanced the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, and the role of RMB in balanced international revenue and expenditure will appear.
The policy remains stable and loose.Sino -US trade frictions will drag the global economic prospects and will make the global central bank policies more loose, but it is worth noting that the central bank does not mean that it should be filled with water.The word is the head.
The central bank's targeted structure reduction helps stabilize expectations.Shortly after Trump announced the threat of tariffs, after the opening of the stock market, the central bank announced that starting from May 15, 2019, a lower preferential deposit reserve rate will be implemented for small and medium -sized banks that focus on local and service counties.About 280 billion yuan, which triggers the market to guess that the central bank has contacted the two Sino -US trade frictions?
From the perspective of hedging Trump Black Swan impacting the market and stable expectations, there is a certain connection between the two, but not all.The central bank has decided to reduce the standards to small and medium -sized banks. It is mainly due to the difficulty of financing and expensive financing of small and medium -sized enterprises. If there is no Trump tariff threat, the central bank will postpone the operation slightly.The central bank's move to the market to release a stable policy orientation to support the real economy, especially weak links such as small and medium -sized private enterprises, agriculture, etc. The supply -side structural reform is still the main line, and the central bank does not engage in large water irrigation.The central bank's targeted structure can be better balanced and stable, risk -proof and stable macro leverage, and also helps to avoid stimulating the property market in the first- and second -tier hot cities.
From the perspective of domestic short -term difficulties and medium and long -term economic and healthy development relationships, the management policy is still stabilizing, do your own affairs, continue to promote the supply -side structure, and hold open Sino -US trade negotiations that are fair, reasonable, and win -win.manner.In addition to the central bank's targeted reduction, management policies may further stabilize market expectations, and increase infrastructure investment in accordance with subsequent economic conditions to effectively hedge foreign trade. At the same time, continue to promote various reforms including financial opening.
The domestic stock market did not deviate from the slow bull track.Looking back at the fierce fluctuations in the domestic financial markets in China, it is largely related to the domestic macroeconomic and financial imbalances, and the risk of local asset bubble risks is related.However, in recent years, a series of domestic supply -side structural reform effects have gradually been released. Domestic macroeconomics and finance have become balanced, and macro risks have decreased significantly. Domestic economic momentum has shifted to consumption, service -driven, and gradually diversified foreign trade. The domestic economic toughness has been further further diversified.Enhancement.A series of macroeconomic data since the beginning of the year shows that the domestic economy has shown a stable and improved trend. With the gradual release of the policy effects such as a series of domestic tax reductions and fees, the foundation of the domestic economic recovery has been further consolidated; the pace of domestic financial reform and opening up has continued to accelerate;; Domestic stock markets are horizontal and vertical, and they are all in value depressions. The domestic capital market is optimistic for a long time.
Affected by the resonance of multiple factors in the domestic stock market, the adjustment of the stock index in place will help the centralized release of market risks. Investors will gradually return to the fundamental aspects and policies, and the market emotions are expected to gradually recover.From the perspective of the medium and long -term configuration, any severe adjustment is a good opportunity for long -term layout, but it is necessary to increase in -depth research on the company's fundamentals and development potential.
Finally, from the impact of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate is short in the short term, and the center moves downwards in the direction of depreciation, but the possibility of depreciation of the trend is low.Trump Black Swan has led to the upgrading of Sino -US trade tensions. The market is worried about impacting foreign demand. Investors will further relax the central bank's policies and drag out the performance of the RMB exchange rate.From the perspective of experience, the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB in trade disputes often increases.
However, the domestic economic fundamentals stabilize and recovery are expected to continue, mainly because the domestic credit environment has improved, and the effectiveness of reform, tax cuts and burdens is gradually emerging; the central bank's policy will still support the weak links of the real economy.The reform is still the main line.As the market sentiment is gradually fascinating, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate near a new equilibrium point.Domestic economic and financial imbalances are improving, macro risks have decreased, and the opening of the domestic financial industry is steadily promoting the opening of the domestic financial industry. The attraction of RMB assets is still strong.And keep internationally revenue and expenditure stable.The RMB exchange rate is stable.
Be wary of the plot reversal possible
Can the United States endure a comprehensive Sino -US trade friction again?This is doubtful, and it does not rule out the possibility of Trump's return to the negotiation track again.
On the one hand, the US economic cycle has passed.From the slowdown of the global economy, the effect of Trump's tax reduction effect, the impact of the uncertain factors such as Britain's retreat, the US economy is likely to gradually slow down from the top of the economic cycle.Although the US GDP in the first quarter was 3.2%of the year -on -month, it was mainly expected by inventory investment, local state government public expenditure and trade dragging on narrowing support, these kinetic energy volatility was large and sustainable.Judging from the announcement of the announcement in recent months, the US manufacturing PMI has slowed downThe core price of the United States has been lower than 2.0%for a long time, showing that the employment market in the United States is weak with salaries. Once the US market fluctuates, economic slowdown, and weakening tax reduction effects, residents' consumption expenditures may become cautious.
On the other hand, the overall trade friction will fully appear on the US impact.If Trump comprehensively improves the tariffs of Chinese commodities in the United States, the increase in the cost of life and production in the United States is equivalent to the US government imposed tariffs on the entire people.At the same time, the prices of consumer goods such as middle and lower income classes have directly increased, and the welfare of the whole society will be greatly reduced.Overlapping international crude oil prices rose, inflation rises, and residents' consumption and investment will spirally decline.
In addition, US stock valuations are relatively sensitive.If Trump upgrades trade frictions, the US economy slows down, US stocks with a historical high -level US stock adjustment have increased pressure, and the Fed's space for future economic recession or financial turmoil is also very limited.
(The author is a macro analyst at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank. This article only represents the author's point of view. Editor -in -chief email: [email protected])
