Early Hong Kong and Macao Sudden Search

Wall Street has a smooth sloppy Sell in May and Go Away, and the experience of Hong Kong shareholders is even better: the five poverty and six must turn around, that is, it should not be able to buy stocks until July.

Originally, Hong Kong shareholders were worried that the senior Hong Kong artist Zheng Shaoqiu will be released at the end of April. The Ding crab effect reproduces the Quanhu (the other name of the Hong Kong stock market is the goldfish tank).But after a week, there was no strangeness. When everyone put down the big stones, the characters who were more powerful than him played. This is the US President Trump.

Trump's mutaged face announced that the tariffs on some Chinese goods increased from 10%to 25%, which brought a great shock to the stock market.Hong Kong stocks fell more than 1,100 points yesterday, and then decreased, but the receipt also fell 871 points, a drop of nearly 3%, and the turnover increased sharply to HK $ 137.2 billion (S $ 23.8 billion), nearly doubled.

For a long time, the traditional wisdom of Hong Kong shareholders is weaker in May. This year, a letter is added to the risk factor mdash; mdash; Ding crab effect, so that all stock critics have a warning number and remind the shareholders early:careful!careful!

The so -called Ding crab effect originated from the autumn official Zheng Shaoqiu in 1992 to perform the stock disaster TV drama era.In the play, he starred in the role of Ding Crab, who was rich in the short -selling period, and experienced a turning point from more than 5 billion to a liability of more than 10 billion yuan, and finally took the four sons to commit suicide from the Tiantai of the trading square.

Since then, many TV series starring Qiu Guan have coincided with the plunge of Hong Kong stocks during the broadcast period.In the past 20 years, whenever Qiu Guan has any work, the market will link the market to the market, so it is also called the autumn official effect.

Lyon Securities issued a report on Adam Cheng Effect in 2004 and 2012, respectively.Among them, the 2004 report counted the data from 1992 to 2003. A total of nine sets of dramas starring Zheng Shaoqiu were staged. During the period, the largest decline in the Hang Seng Index was 0.1%to 24.5%, and the average decline in the average decline was 12.2%.

The 2012 report pointed out that since the broadcast of the Greater Times, 70%of the HSI will fall at the time of the autumn official drama playback, and the average weighted decline is 6.6%.

The Lyon Securities Report also added tragic scores, pointing out that the harmful the ending of the episode, the greater the fall of the HSI.

But in recent years, the autumn official effect seems to have diminished power.Recently, the two TV series include the 2018 Night and 2012 Hearts. The HSI recorded an increase in the finale of the episode.

In any case, referring to the HSI performance in the May of the past 20 years, a total of 14 declines were recorded, that is, the decline was more, and the probability of decline was as high as 70%.Among them, in May 2012, due to the European debt crisis in Greece, the HSI fell 11.7%larger, and the decline was the largest in the past 20 years.

In addition, in May 2000, the HSI also fell 5.2%.The reason is that the science network bubble explosion, many American -web stars such as Cisco, Dell, etc., suddenly a large number of selling soldiers suddenly emerged, causing panic selling, leading to a single month in April of that year, a single month of 10.8%, and another 5.2%in May.

Securities analysts believe that even if the autumn official effect is ignored, analysis from data alone, even if Hong Kong stocks will not fall significantly in May this year, they tend to be soft and soft, and investors must make early precautions.

This round of Ding crab effect was presented by the TV series starring Qiu Guan, and set off on Viu TV last Monday (29th).However, Hong Kong stocks are wandering up and down at 30,000 points. At this time, analysts generally predict that Sino -US trade negotiations may have results, and the United States does not raise interest rates.

Therefore, when Zheng Shaoqiu attended the event last week, he was asked by the reporter if he was worried about the reappearance of Ding crab effects. He responded quickly: It has already been cursed!It is also clear that the market should be promoted.

Wang Liangxiang, managing director of the Financial Marketing Department of DBS Bank, also pointed out that the five -month month may not appear.He said that when the HSI was raising from 24500 to 2shy; 7000 points, there was no large transaction support. Therefore, it is believed that the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in the fund configuration is not very high, making the market worthy of optimism.

Who knows that this year's Ding crab effect did not sink Hong Kong stocks, and the Sell in May phenomenon could not be seen in the first few days in May. At this time, Trump came to an assault. Those who were optimistic or looked at each other lost all of them.

Chen Delin, president of the Hong Kong Monetary Administration, analyzed at the Financial Affairs Committee of the Legislative Council that it will not know whether the trade negotiations between China and the United States can be negotiated at present; even if trade issues can be talked about, China and the United States will still be full of contradictions in science and technology and 5G.

He said that the performance of Hong Kong stocks earlier reflects the market assumption that China and the United States have reached an agreement soon; once the negotiations are broken, it will have a great impact on the global financial market and have a great risk.

Ding crab in the big era drama is impulsive, unreasonable, irritable, and simple, but many theories and self -righteousness, who thinks that you can afford the conscience of heaven and earth and justice to people, but actually do everything that hurts heaven.In fact, strong words are a fearful role.

Looking at Trump in reality, it seems to be more unreasonable than Ding Crab!Therefore, Daban should also publish a Trump effect research report.