Zheng Yongnian column
A attention is the most important phenomenon in the world's politics today. It is undoubtedly the rise of outsiders of the Politburo, that is, those who have not been substantially related to the political circle before, and even have no experience in political experience. They have been elected by the people to become national leaders.This includes Trump in the United States, Macron in France, and Conte in Italy.Recently, Zellenki in Ukraine is even more of the president.
It can be said that Ukraine's elections are a typical absurdity of contemporary existentialism.Comedy actor Zelei is a person who is not politicized, but he still decides to participate in the presidential election.He said at the scene of the TV debate: I am not a politician, just an ordinary person. I came here to break the current system.He even bluntly stated to the current President Poroshenko: I am the result of the mistakes you made and the promise you did not perform.The Zelei team was wrong in the entire election process, and even the most basic facts and things were unclear, just like the comedy he performed.But all of this is not important for voters who support him, and there is no popularity that affects supporters.As a result, it was very clear, and Zeelianzky was elected president.
This reminds people of French existential writer Albert Camus in the middle novel bureau outsiders.Outsiders vividly reflect the concept of existential philosophy about ridiculous: because people and the world are separated, the world is absurd and meaningless for people;Things are indifferent.However, it seems that Zediski is elected president. The outsiders are not as absurd as Camus depicted. Although they are also absurd, they are not so powerful and hopeless.
If Camus is still alive, will he change his views on society and the world?The development of contemporary socio -economic and technological has changed the environment of outsiders, at least in the political field.Ordinary outsiders can participate and affect the development of things through their almost absurd behavior.
The current situation creates heroes, and the rise of outsiders of the Politburo is also the product of the times.Since World War II, especially since the Internet, this world has undergone tremendous changes.As far as democracy is concerned, the West has completed the transition from elite (republic) democracy to public democracy.Elite democracy is the republic between political elites. Everyone is an elite and turns to govern.Politicians, or Max Weber, a German sociologist, said that professional politicians come from similar social backgrounds and receive similar education, so they have consensus on political affairs. More importantly, they have a moral senseAt least not so selfish.The Popular Democratic era of one person and one vote began in the 1970s.Prior to this, the right to election has great limitations, and it is the right to make many adult men who have made many contributions to the country (that is, many taxes).In most countries, women have no right to vote, let alone citizens of ethnic minorities.
(Republic) Elite democracy is also a responsibility.The reason why the West implemented a democratic system is because of the difficulty of direct democracy, and on the other hand, it also assumes that these representatives assumed the political responsibility.The nature of a political figure generated by one person has changed.On the one hand, as far as democracy is concerned, it is indeed more democratic; on the other hand, the sense of responsibility of the politicians elected by the election has become blurred.Public opinion has become the foundation of all political power, but who's public opinion?Is there a constant public opinion?In terms of experience, it is difficult to require ordinary people to have a long -term view of interest, and most people only have in front of their eyes.More importantly, public opinion is differentiated. Democracy means reflecting the public opinion of most people, but it also means to ensure the public opinion of a small number of people.These theories are very moral, but how is it reflected in the specific system?In fact, many democratic ideals and the system designed for these ideals are difficult to be operable.Therefore, at the practical level, democracy has evolved into a differentiation politics, or that democratic politics has become the most effective tool for the differentiated people of the people.
Social media weaken the importance of political parties
The emergence of the Internet, especially social media, has pushed Volkswagen democracy to extremes.Each member of the social media empowers a performance platform in the society. Everyone has a microphone, a props, and a space for everyone to show their talents.The Zelei team said that they had nothing, and there was only one Internet platform.
With social media, traditional political parties are not so important and even needed.To a large extent, the existence of traditional political parties only expresses the presence of obtaining interest groups from it.In Europe, the political parties were only the old people club in the early days, and later evolved into a stage of popular politics.But with social media, the operation of political parties is increasingly inefficient, especially for young people, who still needs a political party?Americans have always been proud of having a stable two -party system, and the existence of the two parties means that the rise of any third forces has no hope.But it's hard to say now.If you put aside the Internet and social media, it is difficult to understand the recent presidential elections.Rather than relying on the Republican Party to win, it is better to rely on social media to win.In other words, populist supporters push Trump to the political stage through social media.
Of course, social media is just a tool, and everyone can use it.Outsiders have squeezed away the traditional political figures and seized power, mainly because traditional politicians have lost their ability to solve the severe socio -economic problems faced by outsiders.In the contemporary, this is mainly manifested by the differences between income distribution and the size of the middle class.After World War II, the U.S. middle class reached 70%during its peak and less than 48%.During the eight -year administration of President Obama, the middle class of the United States decreased at a rate of more than 1 percentage point each year.No society can tolerate this transformation from middle -class to the poor, and this is also the social background of Trump's rise.
The same is true in Europe.Although in the United States, Europe is a high welfare society, after the financial crisis, high welfare is difficult to sustain, and the government wants to reform, but the people refuse to give up any benefit (or rights) they have received.Europe is therefore manifested in the extreme leftist populist movement (such as the yellow vest movement in France) and extreme right population (such as the five -star party movement in Italy).
Once the society is differentiated, the populism has the market; the more the society is differentiated, the more likely the outsiders to enter the political process.Latin America is even more typical.Since World War II, this vast area has been between extreme left and extreme rights.According to the study of Javier Corrales, a professor of political science at the Amherest College in Massachusetts. Since 1989, there haveThere are officers, business tycoon, media figures, artists, doctoral economics, union leaders and even priests.
The relationship between populism and the rise of outsiders is like the relationship between chickens and eggs. The two are dependent and enhanced.Today, elites have condemned populism, because populism has broken their political rice bowls.It does have its toxicity, which will not only lead to internal instability, but also manifested as external nationalism, trade protectionism, and economic nationalism.But from a historical perspective, populism is really the inevitable of history. The society is highly differentiated, and populism will inevitably become the weapon of the weak.The European Socialist Movement in the 19th and early 20th century manifested in internal populism and external nationalism.In the early European capitalist, people realized this.Therefore, in order to save capitalism, German politician Bismarck took the initiative to launch the world's first social security policy to protect the interests of workers.However, it is clear that the rapid development of capitalism has made similar local social security far from meeting the needs of society, and the socialist movement has become inevitable.It is the European socialist movement that has created a welfare society that people see today.There is no reason to believe that the primitive capitalism that Marx said will naturally evolve to today's welfare capitalism.Welfare capitalism is the product of the socialist movement.
Outsiders cannot change reality
Today's globalization and technological progress, once again prepared material strips for populism movementPings, once again provide the opportunity to provide revolutionary (change to the dynasty and seize the power) again.But the problem is that outsiders can revolutionize, but can they change society?The answer is also obvious: no.Outsiders not only cannot change reality, but will cause a new crisis.Every time outsiders seize the success of the regime, ordinary people will cheer the victory of the people, but then ordinary people will face the crisis of the people.The reason is very simple.
Traditionally, the so -called bureau is the vested interest.Traditional Western elite politics is the insidious bureau in the bureau, and the left hand reforms the right hand.Although the West implements a two -party or multi -party system, no matter which political party, it represents vested interests.The vested interests are deep and fixed, and they cannot move them in any form of elections, which makes the public lose trust and confidence in traditional politicians and traditional political systems.In this case, populism has become an effective tool for people to change politics.Many participants do not hold a lot of fantasies in the future, but they are determined to abandon the existing self -proclaimed political elite.
In fact, this is true.Even after seizing the regime, outsiders still face the problems faced by people in the original bureau, that is, the dilemma brought about by globalization and technological progress.In the state of globalization, capital and technology are flowing, and the country has lost economic sovereignty, but political sovereignty has been strengthened because of one person and one vote system.Even if the outsiders have obtained political sovereignty, sovereignty in other aspects is still in the hands of elites that can flow globally.The advancement of technology is not shifted with political will.Robotics and artificial intelligence are replacing more and more workers, and all politicians have no way.
Furthermore, today's ability to have capital has exceeded people's imagination.Anyway, social media is also controlled by capital.If social media has no harm to capital, capital will be allowed to do it.But once the capital feels the harmfulness of popular democracy based on social media, it is another matter.It is not difficult to imagine that when the Internet giants who control and manipulate enough information are controlled, they will choose the future scene of the president.Some politicians in the United States, especially Democrats, have been calling on the supervision of the Internet and decomposing the Internet in recent years.Internet companies have monopolized and controlled too much information, and even the intention of voters can be shaped by capital.When the candidate is manipulated by the people, the politicians (whether the traditional bureau or the outsider today) will be unpredictable.
More and more signs show that future politics will become more and more rotating politics.Politics can be highly autonomous, and the public has indeed been emphasized to elected the president they want, but the president cannot affect other elite groups, let alone do anything to change reality.This is just the opposite of traditional political autonomy, because traditional political autonomy refers to the influence of politicians from other factors, and can independent decision -making to affect the entire society.However, the autonomy of air -rotating politics shows that the president has enough power (the people's votes), but it is powerless in the face of reality.
From this perspective, Camus's presence is still right.The world will continue to be a absurd drama.For some outsiders, when they enter the system, they become insiders; for another outsiders, even if they enter the system, they are still outsiders.
The author is the director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore
The article only represents personal point of view
