Huang Fan: Why can Buffett's investment in Chinese companies succeed, and domestic investors only gain fatigue and anxiety in A shares?Buffett is a good investment company, and domestic investors are just speculating stocks.
The annual global investment circle pilgrimage mdash; mdash; Berkshire Hathaway, the 89 -year -old stock god Buffett as the main character Buffett;; Omhaha's victory was held, this annual meeting has also become a Chinese -led party. Many friends in the author's investment community have gone to the Holy Land Omaha and kept sharing the vision of the Holy Land in the circle of friends in real time.The true scripture.
However, it is interesting that at the same time that many domestic investors respect Buffett, they often refuse to become Buffett (see the author's previous article)!
At this annual meeting, Buffett said: It will go to China if you have a good project.He also pretended to be mysteriously saying that some Chinese companies were very interesting and could not be disclosed now, telling you in a few years.Buffett also revealed its stock selection standards in the Chinese market: companies with net assets not less than 20%and can grow steadily can enter their research category.
Many domestic professional investors still have stated that this set of Buffett's set is not suitable for China. If Buffett comes to China to invest, it will also be skinned.
What about the actual situation?Buffett's Berkshire has invested in PetroChina and BYD, and both received generous returns:
The stock god invested in PetroChina at the beginning of this century. When he participated in the investment, PetroChina was not treated by the international market. The price of cabbage price of more than 1 yuan was not asking, so Buffett bought it many times.In the end, the total amount of PetroChina's stocks was 234,776.1 billion, accounting for 1.33%of the total oil share capital.Based on the purchase price of HK $ 1.7/share at that time, the market ratio was 1 times, the price -earnings ratio was 8 times, and the dividend rate was 6%.Five years later, the market was hot. He continuously sold oil in the range of HK $ 11-15. When selling, the average selling price was calculated. The net ratio of the market rate was about 3.5 times and the price-earnings ratio was about 17 times.The total return rate of investment was 720 %, and the average annual compound return rate reached 52 %.
In September 2008, Lao Pak was once again purchased at 225 million BYD shares at a price of 8 Hong Kong dollars per share, accounting for about 10%of Bipham's total shares.It has an advantage and is also optimistic about the future trend of new energy vehicles.Later, Buffett insisted on BYD for more than 10 years. During the period, the two -wheeled bull and bear cycle of the Chinese stock market had been experienced.The saying that Buffett's eyes were one after another, but Buffett insisted on faith and insisted on investing. It has rewarded more than 10 times so far.
The above facts show that Buffett's value investment method is used to invest in Chinese companies.So why can Buffett's investment in Chinese companies succeed, but domestic investors only gain fatigue and anxiety in A shares?The difference is that Buffett came to invest in a good company, and most domestic investors were just speculating stocks.
In fact, the essence of domestic investors who are keen on speculation is that a group of people pushed 1 yuan to 10 yuan and 100 yuan, and then faster than anyone else.This is a game game. Participants are like participating in gambling, and they will lose for a long time.
Buffett's value investment is like buying high -quality assets worth more than 10 yuan at a price of 5 yuan or lower, and then appreciates with high -quality assets for a long time.
Investment companies refer to the excellent company in the Chaoyang industry carefully. When the prices are reasonable, buy it reasonably, and keep holding the hold for a long time.Stir -fried stocks are to watch K -line, listen to messages, and chase concepts every day.The former can achieve wealth preservation and appreciation for a long time. As for the latter?Then you can only gain fatigue and anxiety.
Although A shares have always been a mechanism for the market lack of survival of the fittest due to factors such as the existence of IPO, poor implementation of the delisting system, and lighter penalties for financial fraud and market control.Hellip; hellip; and other growing troubles, but A shares with a high -speed growth background of domestic economy still have no good opportunities for domestic investors.Data can explain the problem:
After the unprecedented 2005-2007 bull market, the stock market continued to decline over and over again, but more than 500 stocks have reached the highest price in several years, achieving ten times the income.Obviously, the continuous improvement of the company's own operating capabilities is the ultimate decisive factor that these stocks have risen ten times between the cow and bears.Famous brand liquor, traditional famous medicine, medical and health, consumer services, financial industry and other society are the hotbed of these companies.Even in the past five years (early 2014 to the present), the market has risen and has fallen, and the leading companies in these industries Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Pianzi, El Eye, Gree Electric, Yili, China Merchants Bank, Ping An Insurance, etc.After five times the stock price of more than five years ago, it became a variety that truly crossed the beef and bears.As long as these stocks have doubled prices in the next five years, they can easily realize the dream of ten years and ten years of return for investors.
As mentioned earlier, Buffett has clearly stated that it is interested in Chinese companies, and the stock selection standard in the Chinese market is that the net asset yield is not less than 20%and can grow steadily.
Coincidentally, the above A -share listed companies, which brings ten years of rewards for domestic investors with high certainty, are a good company that meets the standard of stock god Buffett.
Many domestic investors are still worried about Buffett: Many A -share companies have serious financial fraud, lack of internal internal governance in the company, and macro -policy intervention in Hellip; Hellip;
In fact, if for the purpose of long -term investment, these are not problems.If investors see companies with more than 10 years of listing, if it has maintained a stable profit growth of more than 10 years, and the net asset yield remains 20%per year, the possibility of fraud is very small (if there is fraud, it will be exposed early);As for the transitional intervention of policies, the short -term effects have indeed impact on stock prices, but in the long run, it has little effect on the inherent value of listed companies.
I remember that two years ago, Buffett polisically persuaded Chinese investors at the annual meeting: the market is like a casino, and people have this characteristic.When you see others get rich, you will hope to speculate, instead of calmly doing value investment.When the market is very hot, many new stocks perform well, and many people are attracted to speculation and gambling.This is a lesson in the United States.
His old man also said that people like gambling and speculation will become complacent and enter a comfortable zone. Once the market changes, they cannot predict or defense.But the market will lead people to invest properly for a long time.
Why are investors passionate about the stock market forecast and prediction to make short -term stock trading speculation?Because this is the easiest option.
Before making investment decisions, there are the following methods that can be used to provide a basis for investors' decisions:
1. Research and analyze the industry and the company (the most reliable);
2. Inquire about various inside information (not reliable);
3. Listen to experts in opening the river to predict the short -term trend (most unreliable).
However, the degree of difficulty of these three methods is exactly the opposite of reliability.Therefore, the vast majority of people have rushed to know that they are unreliable predictions and predictors.
Remember that in Harry Potter, President Dumbledore said to Harry: In life, most of the choices we face are not the right way, or the wrong way. (Correct, still wrong) The choice we really face is: the right way, or the easy way.Easy is usually incorrect, and the correct one is definitely not easy.
For entrepreneurs, it is the right way to make products carefully, but it is not easy to go; the way to tell stories is easy, and it is often not possible to go back.For investors, in -depth analysis and researching the company's financial status to make investment decisions is the right path, but it is not easy. It is easy to follow the wind of stocks. However, this is obviously not investing in the right way; hellip; choosing the right way?Or is it easy to choose?Choose the results.
If you follow Buffett to practice value investment, the principle is simple, that is, choose a company, buy a reasonable price to buy, and adhere to long -term planning.However, in addition to the need to study hard and have financial analysis capabilities, the selected companies must carefully analyze the prospects of the industry and the fund's fundamentals. The reasonable prices need to have a strong patience to resist the temptation of short -term profits.Cultivation and uniqueness and declined with the perseverance and tenacity.In a word, it is a correct but not easy way.
With the launch of the science and technology board, the pilot and delisting of the IPO registration system is an irreversible direction. As a result, a few high -quality assets in the secondary market must continue to be favored, and most of the performance differences and concepts continue to explode.Investors must abandon the glorious traditions such as speculation, stir -fried small, poor performance, and speculation concepts based on inside information and forecasting market trends.Otherwise, you have always chosen the easy way, and there will be no way to go.Mr. Buffett's value investment for domestic investors is a correct way to test the correct road at home and abroad. Although it is difficult to walk, it can allow us to achieve the goal of wealth preservation and appreciation.
Note: This article only represents the author's own point of view.The author is senior assets and wealth management business executives of foreign banks.Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
